NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

All good things must come to an end. After two weeks of Thursday Night Football (TNF) featuring playoff-relevant matchups, this week’s game offers a less compelling showdown. The 8-2 Steelers will make the short trip across the Pennsylvania-Ohio border to face the 2-8 Browns in Cleveland. Unless you’re a fan of low-scoring games, there isn’t much to get excited about here. Oddsmakers are predicting a narrow road victory for the Steelers, with a projected score of 20-17. 

When building your roster, there are a few key considerations:

1. The Steelers are only 3.5-point favorites against a team with as many wins as Pittsburgh has losses—ask yourself why that might be.
2. This is an AFC North matchup, meaning these teams are familiar with one another and games are often unpredictable.
3. Jameis Winston, now the Browns’ starting quarterback, has thrown for 300+ yards in two of his three starts since taking over in Week 8.

Taking these points into account, there’s a strong argument for rostering at least three Browns players. Public sentiment may lean toward a Steelers blowout, but the savvy play in Showdown contests is to hedge against that assumption. If the game turns into a back-and-forth affair instead of a lopsided Steelers victory, you’ll be positioned to capitalize by having a contrarian lineup stacked with Cleveland players.

Injury Roundup

The Steelers will be without two defensive starters on Thursday night. Cornerback Cory Trice Jr.. was placed on injured reserve this week due to a hamstring injury, and linebacker Alex Highsmith will miss the game with an ankle injury sustained a few weeks ago against the Commanders. While these absences may concern the Steelers' coaching staff, they are unlikely to have significant fantasy implications.

Cleveland will also be missing a pair of starters for this matchup. Tight end Geoff Swaim remains in concussion protocol, and offensive lineman Jedrick Wills will be inactive due to a knee injury. Similar to the Steelers' injuries, these absences appear to be inconsequential for lineup decisions in Showdown contests.

Captain Considerations

1. George Pickens
2. Nick Chubb
3. David Njoku

Pittsburgh Showdown Players

Quarterback

Russell Wilson (FLEX)

Since taking over as the Steelers' starting quarterback in Week 7, Russell Wilson has led the team to an undefeated 4-0 record. While his success in the win-loss column is commendable, his fantasy production has left much to be desired. Wilson hasn’t posted the kind of numbers that win DFS contests, making his $10,000 price tag on Thursday night difficult to justify.

Wilson will likely be rostered in 40-50% of lineups due to the lack of marquee players on this slate. However, his recent pedestrian fantasy performances, combined with potentially poor weather conditions that could limit passing, make him a risky play. Fading Wilson might be the sharp move here, especially if he delivers another underwhelming showing like his 7-point DraftKings performance last week against a much weaker Ravens defense.

Running Backs

Najee Harris (FLEX)
Jaylen Warren (FLEX)

The Steelers employ a dual running back system, with Najee Harris as the primary back and Jaylen Warren handling third-down duties. This season, Harris has outsnapped Warren at a 2:1 ratio, reflected in their DraftKings pricing of $9,200 for Harris and $6,200 for Warren.

The Browns' defensive front has been formidable against the run, not allowing a 100-yard rusher this season and effectively containing top-tier backs like Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara in recent weeks. While this doesn't necessitate avoiding Harris entirely, Warren presents a more cost-effective option with added upside as a pass-catcher, especially in a game that may feature plenty of third-down situations.

Wide Receivers

George Pickens (CPT or FLEX)

The Cleveland Browns have struggled against opposing wide receivers this season, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. This vulnerability bodes well for George Pickens, the focal point of the Steelers' passing attack. Given this favorable matchup, Pickens should be a staple in your lineups for Thursday's game. Considering his potential to receive 8 or more high-value targets against a porous secondary, placing him in the Captain spot is a strategic move that could yield significant returns.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth (FLEX)

Since Russell Wilson took over as the Steelers' starting quarterback, tight end Pat Freiermuth's targets have decreased by 50%. However, the sample size is limited, and the Browns have struggled against tight ends this season, ranking among the bottom five defenses in this category. This makes Freiermuth an intriguing option at his affordable $3.6K price point. Pairing him with George Pickens could be a strategic move, and including Wilson in your lineup would allow you to capitalize on the potential upside of the Steelers' passing game if Mike Tomlin lets Russ cook.

Under the Radar

Van Jefferson (FLEX)
Mike Williams (FLEX)
Calvin Austin III (FLEX)

Cleveland Showdown Players

Quarterback

Jameis Winston (FLEX)

Jameis Winston faces a challenging matchup on Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have been formidable against opposing quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position this season. Notably, they recently limited Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson to approximately 8 and 16 DraftKings points, respectively.

Winston's most productive fantasy performances typically occur in high-scoring games or when his team is trailing, scenarios that seem unlikely in this contest. Given the Steelers' defensive strengths against the pass, it may be prudent to fade Winston in favor of focusing on the Browns' running game, where Pittsburgh has shown more recent vulnerability.

Running Backs

Nick Chubb (CPT or FLEX)
Jerome Ford (FLEX...maybe)

Nick Chubb stands out as a strong option in this limited slate. His recent underwhelming performances are largely due to the Browns falling behind early, limiting his involvement in their run-first offense. However, if we trust Vegas oddsmakers predicting a close game, it's reasonable to expect the Browns to rely heavily on Chubb to maintain competitiveness at home, especially if adverse weather conditions hinder the passing game.

Jerome Ford, priced at half of Chubb's salary, might seem appealing after his 9-touch game against the Saints last week. However, this increased usage was more a result of the blowout game script than a sign of his expected involvement on Thursday. Since Chubb's return from injury in October, Ford's role has been significantly limited. Therefore, exercise caution when considering him for your lineup.

Wide Receivers

Jerry Jeudy (FLEX)
Cedric Tillman (FLEX)
Elijah Moore (FLEX)

Jerry Jeudy's recent 29.2 DraftKings point performance has elevated his appeal for upcoming Showdown contests. However, it's important to note that this was his first game to surpass 15 fantasy points this season. Given the potential for recency bias, Jeudy will be overrepresented in lineups relative to his actual likelihood of success. Therefore, it might be prudent to limit exposure to him.

Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore are available at a slight discount compared to Jeudy but offer comparable fantasy potential. Tillman is particularly intriguing; since the Browns traded Amari Cooper to the Bills last month, Tillman's usage has surged, leading the team's receivers with 40 targets over four games (averaging 10 per game). This increased involvement makes him a strong play on the slate, potentially under-owned due to Jeudy's recent standout performance.

Tight End

David Njoku (CPT or FLEX)
Jordan Akins (FLEX)

Jameis Winston has consistently favored targeting tight ends throughout his career. This tendency enhances the fantasy prospects of both David Njoku and Jordan Akins in Thursday night's Showdown contest.

David Njoku: Njoku is coming off a strong performance, recording 9 receptions for 81 yards last Sunday. His average depth of target (aDOT) of 4.3 yards indicates a role close to the line of scrimmage, which is advantageous if weather conditions limit deep passing. Since Deshaun Watson vacated the starting quarterback role in October, Njoku has led all Browns' skill players with an average of 16.5 DraftKings points per game.

Jordan Akins: While Akins has been less prominent in the offense, Winston's propensity to utilize tight ends could increase Akins' involvement, especially in two-tight-end sets or red-zone situations. At only $1.6K, he offers salary relief, should you need it.

Given Winston's history and the potential impact of weather on the passing game, both Njoku and Akins warrant consideration for your lineup, with Njoku being the more prominent option.

Kickers and Defenses

Both kickers are viable options for Showdown contests, thanks to these teams' season-long struggles in the red zone. Through Week 11, the Steelers rank 30th and the Browns 23rd in red zone efficiency, making field goals a likely outcome in this matchup. The preferred option is Chris Boswell, who leads the league with 29 field goals and has missed only one all season—a 62-yarder back in Week 3. On the other hand, Dustin Hopkins handles kicking duties for the Browns but has been inconsistent this year, connecting on just 70% of his field goal attempts and only 50% (4 of 8) from beyond 50 yards. Despite his underwhelming performance, Hopkins should see enough opportunities to remain relevant in Showdown contests.

This matchup also appears to be a decent opportunity to roster a team defense, and choosing one could be a cost-effective move. That said, weather conditions in Cleveland—potentially rainy or snowy—might limit passing, which in turn reduces the likelihood of sacks and interceptions. When selecting a defense in Showdown contests, you're generally banking on a defensive touchdown to justify the pick, and this run-heavy game script doesn't inspire confidence in that regard. If you must pick one, the Steelers are the better choice, as no team has allowed more sacks this season than the Browns' offensive line.