NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Thursday night's matchup between Cincinnati and Baltimore is the most playoff-relevant game on the 17-week TNF schedule. After an 0-3 start, the Bengals enter this game on a three-game winning streak, trailing the Ravens by two games in the AFC North. While Pittsburgh currently leads the division, I expect Cincinnati and Baltimore to ultimately rise to the top. In their Week 5 clash, Baltimore won a thrilling 41-38 overtime battle in Cincinnati. Oddsmakers are projecting a similar outcome here, with the Ravens favored 29-23 as they play at home at M&T Bank Stadium.

With the Vegas total surpassing 50 points—and their last matchup nearly hitting 80—Showdown rosters should center around players, not defenses. The Ravens’ defense has been a "pass funnel" this season, which sets up well for Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense. Meanwhile, the Bengals rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, making Lamar Jackson and his receivers just as enticing. I’ll be focusing on quarterbacks and receivers when building lineups. For player distribution, aim for a balanced setup—a 3:3 or 4:2 split in either direction should maximize your chances in Showdown contests.

Injury Roundup

The Bengals enter Thursday with several pressing injury concerns. Tee Higgins, sidelined by a quad issue since Week 7, hasn’t practiced in weeks and is likely to miss this matchup, making Andre Iosivas a viable fantasy consideration. Tight end Erick All Jr.. and receiver Charlie Jones are also on the injury report, though neither should impact fantasy decisions. Additionally, Zack Moss missed last week with a neck injury, leading to increased usage of Chase Brown against Las Vegas. While the Bengals recently traded for Khalil Herbert as insurance, it’s unlikely he’ll see significant snaps with only one day of practice in Cincinnati’s backfield.

Lamar Jackson missed Tuesday's practice with knee soreness, but he practiced in full on Wednesday and will be a full go on Thursday. The Ravens' main injury concern is tight end Isaiah Likely, who has not practiced all week and will miss Thursday night's game. His absence elevates Mark Andrews' fantasy relevance and makes him a solid consideration after splitting time with Likely to this point in the season. Defensive end Brent Urban (concussion) is also expected to miss the game.

Captain Considerations

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Ja'Marr Chase
3. Joe Burrow
4. Mark Andrews
5. Zay Flowers

Cincinnati Showdown Players

Quarterback

Joe Burrow (CPT or FLEX)

In October, the Ravens' defense allowed an average of approximately 30 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Notably, in Week 5, Joe Burrow threw for 392 yards and five touchdowns against them. While replicating such a performance on Thursday may be unlikely, a 25+ fantasy point outcome is entirely plausible. Given that the Bengals are projected to lose by a touchdown, the implied game script suggests Burrow will be in a position to deliver a strong performance.

Running Backs

Chase Brown (FLEX)

Chase Brown, the second-year running back from Illinois, is poised for another significant workload this week. With Zack Moss (neck) on injured reserve and only newly-acquired Khalil Herbert as backup, the Bengals are likely to rely heavily on Brown against the Ravens. However, Baltimore's defense has been formidable against the run, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the league. Given this reality, it may be strategic to focus on the Bengals' passing game and let others anticipate a repeat of Brown's Week 9 performance against the Raiders.

Wide Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase (CPT or FLEX)
Andrei Iosivas (FLEX)

With Tee Higgins trending towards inactive, Ja'Marr Chase becomes a must-play option in Showdown contests. The big question is whether he should take the Captain slot or be used as a flex? Only Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are more expensive, but Chase offers comparable upside at a slight discount. He's averaging 11 targets per game when Higgins is out, and with Baltimore's struggles defending the pass, his opportunities should remain high. Thus, jam Chase into your lineups wherever you can fit him.

Andrei Iosivas is a tempting secondary option in Bengals stacks for Thursday night. He played about 90% of snaps in the two games Higgins missed, but his production has been minimal—just 1 catch for 10 yards and a touchdown across 7 targets. Priced at $3.4K, Iosivas is a boom-or-bust option I like in stacks with Joe Burrow. Despite limited receptions, his 8 touchdowns in 30 career catches highlight his red-zone potential and fantasy upside.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki (FLEX)

Mike Gesicki, formerly of the Dolphins, is coming off a career-best performance with 100 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders last Sunday. Despite this 30-DK point game, he's still reasonably priced at $6.6K and warrants consideration against the Ravens' pass-funnel defense. In the two games without Tee Higgins, Gesicki has recorded 12 catches for 173 yards and (the aforementioned) two touchdowns. However, be cautious with Bengals stacks featuring Burrow, Chase, and Gesicki, as this combination will be popular. If you choose this route, differentiate your lineup with less common options elsewhere.

Baltimore Showdown Players

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson (CPT or FLEX)

Lamar Jackson, a two-time NFL MVP, is currently a front-runner for his third MVP title, leading the 6-3 Ravens to 15 touchdowns scored across their past five games. Jackson is a must-play in Showdown contests, as he is almost guaranteed to post ~ 25 points against the league's 29th-ranked defense against quarterbacks. The analysis is simple--slot him in and build differentiation elsewhere.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry (CPT or FLEX)

Derrick Henry has delivered over 28 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, more than justifying his $11.2K salary for Thursday night's Showdown contests. However, with multiple high-end options priced above $10K, strategic decisions must be made. While Henry has excelled even in challenging matchups, if deciding between him and Lamar Jackson, I lean towards Jackson due to his dual-threat capability, offering points through both passing and rushing. Furthermore, combining both players in the same lineup may limit scoring upside, as Jackson's fantasy success often comes at the expense of Henry's, particularly given that Henry rarely catches passes (nine receptions through nine games).

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers (FLEX)
Rashod Bateman (FLEX)
Diontae Johnson (FLEX)

I predict that Thursday’s Showdown contests will hinge on receiver selection. Lamar Jackson spreads the ball around and has plenty of options. Zay Flowers is the clear WR1, with 67 targets in 2024—double that of any other receiver. Flowers has topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last five games and is coming off a massive 32.7-DK point performance. Given his recent success and high salary, Flowers will be popular, making him a difficult but justifiable fade candidate.

Around the $5K mark, Rashod Bateman and Diontae Johnson offer substantial savings compared to Flowers. Bateman, a deep threat, can pay off his salary with a single touchdown, while Johnson, the new addition from Carolina, is likely to emerge as a volume option alongside Flowers. Industry projections indicate Bateman will be more popular than Johnson, so if your lineup is chalky, I’d recommend Johnson as a lower-owned pivot—and vice versa.

Tight End

Mark Andrews (FLEX)

Mark Andrews presents exceptional value at $4.2K, especially with Isaiah Likely sidelined due to a hamstring injury. Andrews has scored four touchdowns over his past four games, even while sharing snaps with Likely. With Likely absent, Andrews is poised for increased playing time and targets, making him a strong candidate for 12+ fantasy points at a favorable salary. Positioning Andrews in the Captain slot offers significant upside and provides the salary flexibility to include higher-priced players elsewhere in your lineup.

Under the Radar

Nelson Agholor (FLEX)

The addition of Diontae Johnson to the Ravens' roster is expected to impact Nelson Agholor's playing time. As Johnson becomes more familiar with the playbook, Agholor's snap count may decrease. In his debut, Johnson was projected to play about 10-15 snaps, indicating a gradual integration into the offense. Consequently, Agholor's opportunities could diminish, making him a less reliable option for fantasy lineups. While his $3.0K salary is appealing, the likelihood of Agholor scoring fewer than 5 DraftKings points is higher than him exceeding that threshold.

Kickers and Defenses

Despite Justin Tucker’s name recognition, neither kicker in this matchup inspires confidence based on their 2024 performance. Tucker is hitting a career-low 78.9% of field goals and has only connected on 40% of attempts from beyond 50 yards, where DraftKings awards points equivalent to a touchdown. Evan McPherson has posted similar results, converting just 76.5% of his attempts. Like Tucker, McPherson has been reliable inside 40 yards (7 for 7) but has struggled from long range (6 for 10). Despite their collective struggles this season, both kickers remain worthy of consideration due to high-scoring expectations and their relatively low salaries.

Barring a defensive touchdown, which occurs in only about 12% of NFL games, there’s little reason to roster either team’s defense in Showdown contests this week. Both defenses allowed around 40 points to these offenses in their last matchup, and Vegas oddsmakers don't predict a significant change in Week 10. The Ravens have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, making the Bengals defense a weak play. Similarly, the Ravens’ struggles defending the pass make starting their defense risky with Joe Burrow coming off a 5-touchdown game last Sunday.