NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Just like last week, when I highlighted the puzzling Vegas line between the Rams and Vikings, the odds for this game are equally perplexing. Oddsmakers are projecting a close contest, with the Jets narrowly edging out the Texans 22-20 at MetLife Stadium. However, the Jets come into this matchup on a five-game losing streak and missing several key starters (details below), yet they're still slight favorites over the 6-2 Texans. So, what’s going on here? I can’t quite explain the line, which is why I'm inclined to roster more Jets than Texans in my lineups.

Both defenses are strong. The Texans rank just behind the league-best Titans in total yards allowed per game (280.3), and the Jets are just behind, allowing 286.8 yards per game. With two top-five defenses on the field, Vegas isn’t expecting much offense here. The Jets haven’t scored more than 24 points all season, and the Texans will be without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs—the latter out for the season with an ACL tear suffered on Sunday. For Showdown contests, it might be wise to include at least one kicker and one defense in your lineup while leaving some salary unspent to set your roster apart from the competition.

Injury Roundup

As mentioned above, the Texans took a significant hit last week when Stefon Diggs went down with a torn ACL against the Colts. Houston has also been without their top receiver, Nico Collins, since Week 5, leaving Tank Dell as their WR1. Beyond the receiving corps, the Texans’ offense will miss Left Guard Jarrett Patterson, while their defense is down two key starters: Safety Jimmie Ward and Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. These defensive losses could be costly, as the Texans have already allowed 20 or more points in 7 of their 8 games this season.

On the Jets’ sideline, it’s practically a M.A.S.H. unit—they’ll be without six starters on Thursday night, including Aaron Lazard (chest) for the second straight week. The bigger concern, however, is the absence of several key defensive players. The Jets will be without two safeties (Tony Adams and Ashtyn Davis), defensive lineman Leki Fotu, and five-time Pro Bowler C.J. Mosley at linebacker. This extensive injury list could give the Texans a boost on offense, though Vegas oddsmakers still predict a game marred by offensive struggles on both sides come Thursday.

Captain Considerations

1. Davante Adams
2. Garrett Wilson
3. Joe Mixon
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Breece Hall

Houston Showdown Players

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud (FLEX...maybe)

Due to key injuries among Texans receivers, Houston’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) is -2.7%, the fifth-lowest in the league. This matchup doesn’t bode well for Stroud, as the Jets rank third in passing touchdowns allowed (6) and have given up over 250 passing yards to only one quarterback this season (Russell Wilson, 264 yards in Week 7). Stroud’s fantasy output has been modest over the past month, averaging under 15 DK points per game despite the Texans' winning streak. Sprinkle in the absence of Stefon Diggs and Stroud's high salary, there are better options to consider in Showdown contests.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon (CPT or FLEX)

The most expensive player on the board for Thursday night, Joe Mixon, also has the clearest path to significant opportunity. Since Dameon Pierce went down with a groin injury early in Week 7, Mixon has taken over the Texans' backfield, handling 56 touches in just two weeks. He faces a decent matchup against a Jets rush defense that’s allowing over 125 rushing yards per game and has given up 10 rushing touchdowns this season. While the Jets will likely focus on containing Mixon and force Stroud to rely on secondary receivers, Mixon should still be highly relevant in this contest. His salary reflects his strong potential, making him one of the top plays of the night.

Wide Receivers

Tank Dell (FLEX...maybe)
Xavier Hutchinson (FLEX)
John Metchie III (FLEX...maybe)

After scoring an impressive 7 touchdowns on 75 targets in his rookie season, Tank Dell has underwhelmed in his sophomore campaign, catching only 24 passes and two touchdowns by the midpoint of the regular season. Thursday night, however, presents his biggest opportunity so far, with both Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins sidelined. Dell comes at a steep $9.2K, a high price in a contest likely to emphasize running backs and feature a low score. While many will be eager to squeeze him into their lineups, I'll be opting to save salary by avoiding him and differentiating my lineups.

Further down the Texans' wide receiver depth chart are two additional sophomores, Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III. Hutchinson should step into the WR2 role in Diggs’ absence, making him an interesting tournament choice for Showdown contests. Priced at just $4.0K, he offers a budget-friendly alternative to Dell (and Schultz, noted below) with touchdown potential thanks to his 6'3" frame—the second largest on the team after Schultz. Meanwhile, John Metchie III will be on the field, though likely less than some may anticipate, given Robert Woods' return from injury (more below).

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz (FLEX)

For the Texans to pull off a win in this matchup, Dalton Schultz will need to step up to help offset the absence of Stefon Diggs. There’s reason for optimism here, as Schultz has seen six or more targets in all but one game over the past month. As I build my rosters for Thursday night, Schultz will be in consideration, but he may not make the final cut. His $7.0K salary, projected popularity, and my strategy to anchor lineups with Mixon—while using Robert Woods or Xavier Hutchinson to add roster uniqueness—make me likely to look elsewhere.

Under the Radar

Robert Woods (FLEX)

Veteran receiver Robert Woods, 32, is a sneaky, under-the-radar play for Thursday night. Earlier in the season, when both Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins were healthy, Woods saw limited action. However, in Week 4, with Tank Dell sidelined by a chest injury, Woods played 72% of the Texans' offensive snaps alongside Diggs and Collins as the WR3. Since then, injuries across Houston’s receiving corps—including Woods himself—have impacted his playing time. Returning last week, Woods was on the field for 34% of Houston's snaps, and I expect him to rival Hutchinson for the WR2 role on Thursday. At an appealing $3.0K price tag, he’s one of my favorite tournament plays of the night.

NY Jets Showdown Players

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (CPT or FLEX)

Despite the Jets' win-loss record, Aaron Rodgers has managed to post solid, if unspectacular, fantasy numbers this season. He’s averaging 15.4 DK points per game—comparable to C.J. Stroud—but comes at a $1K discount and arguably has a more favorable matchup with stronger receiving options. Rodgers has thrown for two touchdowns in five of the Jets' eight games this season and should benefit from now having two games under his belt with his former go-to receiver, Davante Adams. As noted in the lead-in, this looks like a “get-right” opportunity for the Jets, with Rodgers playing a crucial role in that effort. He’s an appealing option on a slate where offensive production may be limited.

Running Backs

Breece Hall (CPT or FLEX)
Braelon Allen (FLEX)

After a week where Breece Hall and Braelon Allen essentially split touches in the Jets' backfield, it will be interesting to see how the DFS community responds in terms of rostering each player. Allen is available at a 60% discount compared to Hall, which could make him an appealing target for Showdown contests. However, I’m still opting to pay the premium for Breece Hall, who out-snapped Allen 2:1 last week despite the close box score stats. If Allen had averaged more than 3 yards per carry, I might hesitate to pay up for Hall, but Allen has shown little on the field to justify continuing to absorb half of the Jets' backfield touches. I’m chalking up last week as an outlier and betting on Hall returning to a 20-touch workload on Thursday.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams (CPT or FLEX)
Garrett Wilson (CPT or FLEX)
Mike Williams (FLEX...maybe)

It's only a matter of time before Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams reconnect and start meeting expectations. While both players may be in the twilight of their careers, Adams is eager to prove his value—a level he believes couldn’t be showcased with Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew II under center. Rodgers, who lobbied for Adams to be traded, also has something to prove, and I’m banking on the narrative that they’re both out to silence any doubters. In the past three weeks, Josh Downs, Romeo Doubs, and DeMario Douglas each put up over 90 receiving yards against Houston; I fully expect Adams to reach or exceed that mark on Thursday.

On the other side of the field, Garrett Wilson has hit the 100-yard mark in three of his last four games. He can certainly be paired with Adams if Rodgers puts together a strong passing performance against the Texans. The odd man out is Mike Williams, who has only one catch over the Jets' past three games. While Williams brings big-play potential, he’s as boom-or-bust as they come. I’d rather take my chances with the cheaper Texans receivers than risk his inconsistency.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin (FLEX)

To win Showdown contests, capturing all the touchdowns on your roster is crucial, which makes Tyler Conklin a player to consider for Thursday night's game. Conklin has scored in two consecutive games and has been targeted in the red zone in five of the Jets' last six outings. His moderate $5.6K salary isn’t prohibitive, and he may go overlooked as other managers focus on the Jets' higher-profile receivers.

Kickers and Defenses

The Jets might actually be relieved that Kicker Greg Zuerlein landed on injured reserve this week; Zuerlein connected on only 60% of his attempts this season and arguably cost the Jets more than one of their six losses, including last week’s meltdown against the Patriots. As of this writing, the Jets have signed Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader, though they have yet to announce who will start on Thursday night. Once confirmed, the Jets’ kicker could be in play for lineups, but Houston’s kicker, Ka'imi Fairbairn, is a more secure option. Fairbairn has been outstanding in 2024, hitting 91% of his field goal attempts and leading the league in valuable 50+ yard kicks, connecting on 9 of 10. In a game projected to have few touchdowns, Fairbairn shapes up as a sneaky choice for Thursday night.

Both defenses are viable picks in Showdown contests, though neither is a must-play this week. The Texans’ defense is averaging 7.1 DK points per game, a modest return considering their $4.6K price tag. Similarly, the Jets’ defense averages only 5.6 DK points per game for a $3.4K salary. While neither defense stands out as a top roster choice, the Jets do warrant some consideration against a Houston team that allows the sixth-most sacks to opposing defenses and will be without Stefon Diggs.