NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Fresh off their first loss of the season to the Lions, the 5-1 Minnesota Vikings head to Southern California to face the Rams on the night of Cooper Kupp’s long-awaited return from injury. Kupp will no doubt boost the Rams' chances of turning their season around. After starting 2-4 with a makeshift receiving corps, the Rams will welcome Kupp back on Thursday, with Puka Nacua expected to follow in a week or two. Oddsmakers believe Kupp's return will make a difference, as the Vikings are only slight road favorites, with a projected 26-23 win in what’s expected to be a relatively high-scoring game. The Vikings rank 4th in passing rate over expectation, which favors their passing attack, while the Rams rank lower in this statistic, likely due to Kupp and Nacua's extended absence this season.
That said, the Vegas line is curious to me—why would a 5-1 team, whose only loss was a heartbreaker to a strong Detroit Lions squad, be such a small favorite against the Rams, who have allowed 24 or more points in all but one game this season? It seems illogical, but I've learned that Vegas often knows more than we do. This feels like a prime "get-right" spot for the Rams, and I’ll be building lineups with that in mind. At a minimum, I recommend rostering three Rams players, if not four. This approach should help minimize duplicate lineups and reduce the chances of having to share prize pools.
Injury Roundup
Minnesota’s biggest question on the injury report is whether star tight end T.J. Hockenson will make his season debut on Thursday. Reports suggest there is a "decent" chance that Hockenson will play, and if he does, it will certainly add another dimension to Minnesota’s passing game. Additionally, guard Dalton Risner (back) could also be activated from injured reserve for this matchup, a welcome return considering the struggles of his replacement, Ed Ingram, this season. On the defensive side, starting linebacker Blake Cashman (toe) will miss his second consecutive game.
As for the Rams, they’ve already ruled out three players for Thursday’s game: linebacker Troy Reeder (hamstring), wide receiver Jordan Whittington (shoulder), and offensive lineman Joe Noteboom (ankle). While each is a starter, none of these absences are expected to have significant fantasy impact, so they won’t require further discussion here.
Captain Considerations
Minnesota Showdown Players
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (CPT or FLEX)
To his credit, Sam Darnold has shown a resurgent 2024 season with the Vikings. Through six games, he’s completing a career-high 67% of his passes and has thrown 12 touchdown passes, surpassing his totals from the past four seasons. Much of the credit goes to Offensive Coordinator Wes Phillips, who has placed Darnold in situations that play to his strengths without asking him to do too much. This week, Darnold faces a Rams defense that is fairly average and doesn’t sway the matchup heavily in either direction. With Justin Jefferson as his WR1, Darnold brings 300-yard upside into every game, making him a strong Captain option if you’re favoring a Vikings win.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (CPT or FLEX)
The Rams have struggled to defend the run all season. Through six games, they have allowed 100+ rushing yards to every team except the 49ers, who came close with 96 yards. Only the Colts and Panthers have allowed more rushing yards this season, making this a favorable matchup for Aaron Jones. Jones, a dual-threat running back, returned to a 72% snap share last week after tweaking his hamstring in Week 5. Although the Vikings are limiting his participation in practices leading up to this game, we can expect him to serve as the bellcow back in this matchup.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson (CPT or FLEX)
Jordan Addison (FLEX)
Jalen Nailor (FLEX)
With touchdowns in five of the Vikings' six games, Justin Jefferson should be in every lineup you build on Thursday. The only question is whether he should occupy the Captain slot in your lineup. He certainly deserves consideration, but his hefty salary may force you to go lean with the rest of your roster.
After Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor are also worth considering if you're favoring the Vikings' passing game. Nailor is priced about 10% lower than Addison and could become a popular pick after posting better numbers last week. However, Addison remains the stronger play between the two, as Nailor has largely relied on touchdowns for his fantasy value and his efficiency numbers may regress.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson (FLEX...if he plays!)
Johnny Mundt has seen significant playing time in the absence of T.J. Hockenson this season. Hockenson might return on Thursday, and if he does, he’s certainly worth considering at just $5.2K, even if he's on a limited snap count. As for Mundt, he hasn’t exceeded 5 fantasy points in any game this season, which makes him a less appealing option. I would advise passing on Mundt unless you need the salary savings and already have Sam Darnold in your lineup.
LA Rams Showdown Players
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (FLEX)
Matthew Stafford's numbers have been lackluster, if not outright disappointing, since Week 2 when both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were sidelined with injuries. As a result, Stafford has only thrown three passing touchdowns this season—quite a drop compared to last year when he averaged 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. The good news is that the matchup is promising. If the 5-1 Vikings have a weakness, it’s their pass defense, as only Jacksonville and Baltimore have allowed more passing yards per game this year. With Cooper Kupp returning, Stafford becomes an excellent play for Thursday night.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams (CPT or FLEX)
In the absence of the Rams' key receivers, Kyren Williams has taken on a heavy workload, logging 20+ touches in all but one game this season. While Kupp's return may slightly reduce Williams' opportunities, he remains a strong option due to his red zone usage and lack of competition for carries. The matchup, however, appears tough, as the Vikings allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game (80.0), behind only the Ravens. That said, Minnesota has only faced two elite running backs this season—Jordan Mason and Jahmyr Gibbs—both of whom posted 100-yard performances. Williams remains a top play for Thursday.
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp (CPT or FLEX)
Tutu Atwell (FLEX)
Kupp's return, combined with the loss of Jordan Whittington, complicates the snap count distribution for the Rams' wide receivers. This could be your best chance to gain an edge over your competitors on Thursday night. We know Kupp will play the majority of snaps and be heavily involved; in his only full game this season, he was targeted 21 times (yes, you read that right). Make sure to include Kupp in 100% of your lineups.
Beyond that, it's unclear who will step in as the WR2 for Los Angeles. Tyler Johnson (discussed below) started the season as the WR3 behind Kupp and Puka Nacua, but Tutu Atwell has since emerged in that role. Atwell, a former second-round pick, is on track for his best season yet. While his smaller size limits his effectiveness in the red zone, he’s priced appropriately ($4.2K) for his role in the offense. I prefer Atwell slightly over Johnson due to his familiarity with Stafford and his potential for positive scoring regression.
UPDATE @ 4:15 PM (EST) THURSDAY: NFL Network's Tom Pelissero announced on X this afternoon that Puka Nacua will make his return to the field tonight. Nacua will likely be limited, however, so you should minimize your Showdown exposure, particularly given his hefty $10.6K salary. The recommendation is to let your opponents take the chance that he exhibits exceptional efficiency to pay off that salary, an unlikely scenario.
Tight End
Colby Parkinson (FLEX)
Parkinson was targeted 20 times across two games before his last outing, where he saw just two targets. The first positive game script in over a month likely contributed to that drop, so there’s no need to worry too much about rostering Parkinson in this matchup if you’re looking for salary relief. At 6'7", and with the Rams' passing game expected to take a step forward on Thursday night, I like Parkinson’s chances of scoring a touchdown and will be rostering him accordingly.
Under the Radar
Tyler Johnson (FLEX)
The former Buccaneer has been with the Rams for two years now but has struggled to carve out a consistent role in the offense. After barely seeing the field in 2023, he’s benefited from injuries to the Rams' wide receivers in 2024, as reflected by his ~200 snaps (third-most among the receiving corps). Johnson seemed poised to be the odd man out with Cooper Kupp's return, but Jordan Whittington's departure has created more opportunity for him on Thursday. At $3.2K, Johnson will be a popular salary-saving option and is worth considering for Showdown contests, though I believe Tutu Atwell is the better play between the two secondary Rams receivers.
Kickers and Defenses
We have two lesser-known kickers in this contest: Will Reichard for the Vikings and Joshua Karty for the Rams. Of the two, Reichard gets my recommendation. He has been perfect this season, going 12 for 12 on field goals and 18 for 18 on extra points. With a season-long field goal of 58 yards and a 3-for-3 record from beyond 50 yards, Reichard has the potential to rack up points if the Vikings stall inside Rams' territory. As for Karty, I’d pass on him—he’s been inconsistent this season, making just around 80% of his attempts, whether they be field goals or extra points.
Regarding team defenses, I’m likely fading both units due to the strength of the offenses and the high Vegas total. On paper, Minnesota is the better defense, ranking 6th in points allowed in 2024, but they’ve given up an average of 26 points per game over their last three contests, making their $4.8K price tag less appealing. The Rams, on the other hand, come at a $1K discount and will likely be less popular. They also face Sam Darnold, who has a well-documented history of turnovers. If you’re set on rostering a defense, the Rams are the stronger play.
