NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

It's a good thing DraftKings is offering a sizable prize pool for this one, because why else would we tune in to watch Spencer Rattler versus Bo Nix? Vegas is projecting a low-scoring game, with Denver predicted to win 20-17 against the injury-riddled (see details below) Saints. With key injuries and strong defensive matchups on both sides, there isn't much to like in this Showdown contest. As a result, there’s strong reasoning to take a contrarian approach and hope your roster choices hit paydirt.

For roster construction, leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara, the defenses, and the kickers seems like the right strategy this week. While it may not make for an exciting Thursday night game to watch, excitement doesn’t always translate into tournament success in DFS contests. The key to winning lineups will likely come from picking the right tertiary receiver who manages to find the end zone—be sure to check out the 'under the radar' section below for my top recommendations. As for team distribution, a 4-2 or 5-1 split of Broncos-to-Saints players feels like the right strategy.

Injury Roundup

New Orleans has been hit hard by injuries lately. Last week, Derek Carr (oblique) missed the Saints' game against Tampa Bay and is trending toward missing this one as well. Additionally, the Saints' top two receivers, Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee), both missed practice on Wednesday, which doesn't bode well for their passing game in this matchup. With both Taysom Hill and right guard Cesar Ruiz also missing practice, there isn’t much to like about the Saints' offense heading into this contest.

On the other hand, the Broncos come into this game with only one major injury concern. Patrick Surtain II (concussion) hasn’t practiced yet this week and is likely to miss the game. However, the absence of the 2023 Pro Bowl cornerback is less of a worry, given the numerous injuries plaguing the Saints' offense.

Captain Considerations

1. Alvin Kamara
2. Courtland Sutton
3. Bo Nix
4. Javonte Williams

New Orleans Showdown Players

Quarterback

Spencer Rattler (FLEX...maybe)

After a lackluster NFL debut last week against the Buccaneers (22 of 40, 243 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions), Spencer Rattler will be looking to step up his game in this matchup. However, the challenge only intensifies against the Broncos' top-five defense, which has allowed just two 200-yard passers this season and has as many interceptions as passing touchdowns allowed (5). Last week, while playing from behind, Rattler managed only 93 passing yards in the second half. This week, facing a tougher defense and losing key receivers, I recommend avoiding him in your DFS rosters.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara (CPT or FLEX)

Alvin Kamara led all Saints players with eight targets last week in Spencer Rattler's debut. With the aforementioned injuries to New Orleans' receiving corps, it's clear Kamara will be the focal point of the Saints' offense in this game. Kamara has proven throughout his career that he can carry the load when necessary, and this matchup will likely be no different. He should be a lock in 100% of your Showdown lineups on Thursday, as he’s poised to see more opportunities than any other player on the field.

Wide Receivers

??? (See "Under the Radar" below)

The Saints are fielding a patchwork group of receivers for Thursday's game. Since none of them are well-known "name-brand" players, they are discussed in more detail below.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson (FLEX)
Foster Moreau (FLEX)

The Saints have to throw the ball to someone, so we have to consider their tight ends. Juwan Johnson will likely see more snaps, but he comes at more than double the price of Foster Moreau on DraftKings. Neither option is particularly exciting, as I don’t have much confidence in the Saints scoring more than 14 points against Denver. However, if I have to choose, I’d lean towards saving salary with Moreau--with the Saints' wide receiver injuries, I can envision him getting more playing time and potentially making a points-per-dollar impact.

Under the Radar

Bub Means (FLEX)
Mason Tipton (FLEX)
Cedrick Wilson Jr. (FLEX)

All three of the Saints' projected starting wide receivers are priced at $4.0K or less, making them affordable, though unexciting, options for Showdown contests. Bub Means, a fifth-round pick out of Pittsburgh, emerged as Spencer Rattler's favorite target last week and will likely be the most popular Saints receiver for that reason. However, Means' upside is limited, as he primarily runs lower-value underneath routes, evidenced by his 8.3 average depth of target last week. While he’s a viable option given the chemistry we saw between him and Rattler, he’s far from a lock for big production.

Instead, I prefer Cedrick Wilson Jr.., the former Dolphin and Cowboy, who offers more experience and deep-threat potential. Wilson may not be a standout player, but with five years of NFL experience, he brings more upside compared to the rookies, Bub Means and Mason Tipton.

Denver Showdown Players

Quarterback

Bo Nix (CPT or FLEX)

While he has yet to deliver a breakout performance, rookie Bo Nix deserves consideration for your Showdown contests in what is otherwise a bland game. Nix has posted back-to-back two-touchdown games against the Raiders and Chargers, and he’ll aim to continue that momentum against a Saints defense that has allowed over 300 passing yards in three of their last four matchups. With a solid floor and some upside, Nix merits consideration for both the Captain and flex spots in your lineups. Much like Kamara for the Saints, Nix should probably be included in 100% of your builds.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams (CPT or FLEX)

Rostering Javonte Williams might be a tough pill to swallow, given that he has yet to score this season and touched the ball only nine times last week. However, Williams leads the Broncos in red zone opportunities and is fairly priced at $8.8K considering his role in the offense. Like Bo Nix’s favorable matchup against the Saints' secondary, Williams also faces a juicy situation—New Orleans has struggled to stop the run, allowing three 100-yard rushers over the past month. This makes Williams a solid, but arguably risky, option for your lineups.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton (FLEX)

With Josh Reynolds landing on IR this week, the Broncos are left with just one veteran receiver: Courtland Sutton. Sutton’s stats have been underwhelming so far this season, and that trend may continue with Bo Nix under center. However, given the shallow talent pool on this Showdown slate, Sutton stands out as the best receiver available, making him a legitimate Captain option. It’s worth noting that Chris Godwin and JuJu Smith-Schuster both posted 100+ yard games against the Saints over the past two weeks, which bodes well for Sutton—if Nix can find him in open space.

Tight End

None

Until someone steps up and catches more than two passes, I can’t recommend any tight end on this Bo Nix-led team. The Broncos have used four different tight ends this season, and not one has surpassed three catches or 20 receiving yards in a game. I recommend avoiding them entirely.

Under the Radar

Troy Franklin (FLEX)
Devaughn Vele (FLEX)
Marvin Mims Jr. (FLEX)

It’s anyone’s guess who will step up in the WR2 role for the Broncos on Thursday night. Rookies Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele will get a shot, while NFL sophomore Marvin Mims Jr.., a second-round pick last year, remains in the mix. Last week, Franklin and Vele doubled Mims’ snap count, which will likely make them more popular picks among DFS players for this slate. Vele saw six targets compared to only three for Franklin and Mims, but I view these differences as "noise" and consider all three equally likely to score a touchdown on Thursday. If I have to choose, I lean toward Mims—he’s the cheapest, most experienced, least owned, and has the best pedigree of the group.

Kickers and Defenses

As mentioned earlier, I like both kickers in this contest. Blake Grupe has been perfect this season, hitting all 10 of his field goal attempts, and he is 8-for-11 lifetime on kicks beyond 50 yards—where DraftKings rewards kickers with the same point value as a touchdown. Meanwhile, Will Lutz is a solid, but less exciting option, with an 85% lifetime field goal completion rate. While Lutz may be the lesser choice, he still carries enough upside to be viable given the potential for scoring opportunities on a Broncos team that has tied for the fifth fewest touchdowns in the league this season.

When it comes to defenses, both quarterbacks are prone to turnovers. Spencer Rattler threw two interceptions last week (compared to just one passing touchdown), and Bo Nix has an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions this season (5:5). Denver holds the defensive edge, boasting a top-five ranking in yards allowed per game, while the Saints rank last. However, New Orleans' defense shouldn't be overlooked, as Nix’s success has been more a product of the Broncos' defense than his own playmaking.