DraftKings Thursday Showdown: Week 5

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Vegas predicts a close Thursday night game, giving a slight edge to the Falcons, 23-21, due to their home-field advantage. Both teams feature strong running backs who will challenge defenses that have struggled against the run—the Falcons rank 5th worst, and the Bucs 11th worst in rush defense. The low Vegas total makes sense, especially if the offenses focus on exploiting these weaknesses by running the ball. However, the Buccaneers, led by a resurgent Baker Mayfield, rank second only to the Seahawks in pass-rate-over-expected this season, showing they’re willing to throw even in obvious running situations.

In terms of roster construction, a balanced lineup (3-3 or 4-2) aligns well with the game’s projected script. While 5-1 lineups offer differentiation, they likely present negative expected value and should be used sparingly. As with any Showdown contest, the key is ensuring you roster players likely to score touchdowns. Contrarian options like Tyler Allgeier and Bucky Irving, who have seen significant red-zone opportunities through the first four weeks, are intriguing tournament plays.

Injury Roundup

The Falcons had a few scares earlier this week, with Bijan Robinson (hamstring) and Ray-Ray McCloud III (ankle) missing practices, but both are now active and should be considered viable DFS options for Thursday night. The only significant Atlanta absence is starting linebacker Troy Anderson, who injured his knee last week after earning NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors with 16 tackles and a pick-six.

Tampa Bay, however, will be without five players, including two starters: All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) and right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion). Winfield's absence slightly boosts Darnell Mooney’s value as a deep threat for the Falcons. Other absentees include defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and backup wide receivers Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer. Their absence could provide DFS value for lower-tier receivers like Sterling Shepard and Kameron Johnson as potential GPP flyers.

Captain Considerations

1. Chris Godwin
2. Mike Evans
3. Drake London
4. Ray-Ray McCloud III

Tampa Bay Showdown Players

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (FLEX)

Coming off his first 4,000-yard passing season, Baker Mayfield looks poised to repeat that performance in 2024. He leads the 3-1 Buccaneers into Atlanta on Thursday with momentum after upsetting the Eagles 33-16 last Sunday. Mayfield has thrived with targets like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and his numbers reflect that. However, as the fourth most expensive player on the slate, you'll need to bank on at least two touchdowns if you roster him. Personally, I'm only including him if I stack at least two Bucs receivers.

Running Backs

Rachaad White (FLEX)
Bucky Irving (FLEX)

Heading into this game, the Bucs appear to be embracing a full-blown running back committee. Rachaad White is outsnapping rookie Bucky Irving nearly 2-to-1, yet Irving has earned almost 85% of White's touches. Both are involved in the passing game, and their DraftKings salaries are nearly identical, making it a tough decision. I lean toward Bucky Irving, who will be rostered by fewer DFS players and is coming off a week where he had six red-zone touches compared to zero for White.

Wide Receivers

Chris Godwin (CPT or FLEX)
Mike Evans (CPFLEX)

In my view, Baker Mayfield’s resurgence is largely due to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans being his primary targets. Godwin is in his prime, while Evans, an ageless future Hall of Famer, is chasing his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season. DraftKings has priced them similarly, and they'll likely be rostered at comparable rates. From my perspective, Godwin is a high-floor play with consistent production, but Evans has a higher upside thanks to his historical chemistry with Mayfield. Evans’ 16 career touchdowns versus Godwin’s 5 make him a stronger tournament option.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton (FLEX)

With 17 targets over the Bucs' last two games, Cade Otton is an appealing tournament flyer for Thursday Night Showdown contests. Despite his heavy involvement in the passing game, Otton has yet to score a touchdown on 21 targets this season. Last year, he averaged a touchdown every 17 targets, suggesting he’s due for one soon. At a bargain price of $4.0K and with injuries to secondary receivers Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer, Otton stands out as a high-value option for tournament play.

Under the Radar

Sterling Shepard (FLEX)

With Jalen McMillan missing this contest due to injury, we can expect ex-Giant Sterling Shepard to step into a more prominent role, likely seeing over 60% of the Bucs' offensive snaps. Priced at just $1.6K, Shepard presents a strong value play after recording a few receptions last week with his new team. As a former second-round pick, Shepard will look to make the most of this opportunity and potentially solidify his role as the WR3 in Tampa Bay’s receiving corps.

Falcons Showdown Players

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (FLEX)

Kirk Cousins has the potential to be a difference-maker in Showdown contests, but he hasn’t shown that yet this season. His performance has been solid but unspectacular from a fantasy perspective, averaging under 12 DraftKings points per game. At nearly $12K, he’s a tough recommendation. If you decide to use a Ray-Ray McCloud III/Drake London double-stack, Cousins should be part of your lineup. Otherwise, I would advise passing (pun intended) on the quarterback.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson (FLEX)
Tyler Allgeier (FLEX)

After dominating the snap count for the first three weeks, Bijan Robinson shared touches almost evenly with Tyler Allgeier last Sunday (11 to 10), likely due to their recent production—Allgeier is averaging 6.1 yards per carry compared to Robinson's 4.1 this season. Robinson holds a slight edge in red zone touches (7 to 6). Given Allgeier's better efficiency and lower cost with less ownership, I lean toward rostering him in DraftKings Showdown contests. However, if you choose Robinson, his upside remains as high as anyone in this game.

Wide Receivers

Drake London (CPT or FLEX)
Darnell Mooney (FLEX)
Ray-Ray McCloud III (CPT or FLEX)

Much like their quarterback, the Falcons' wide receiving corps has been a fantasy disappointment so far this season. Drake London has been the most productive, yet he hasn't surpassed 70 receiving yards in a game and has just two touchdowns. Darnell Mooney is the Falcons' boom-or-bust option with a team-high 12.4 aDOT, making him an intriguing tournament flyer given Antoine Winfield Jr.'s absence. Ray-Ray McCloud III, averaging nearly six targets per game, is also appealing at just $3.4K, offering both salary relief and touchdown potential. London will be the most popular option for Showdown contests, which makes Mooney and McCloud strong upside pivot options.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts (FLEX)

What more can be said about Kyle Pitts? Now in his fourth NFL season, Pitts has had numerous chances to succeed but has consistently underperformed. This year, the Falcons are allowing him to run routes from the perimeter, yet his production remains stagnant. His only saving grace is his modest $5.6K salary, which keeps him in consideration as a potential touchdown scorer in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.

Kickers and Defenses

We have two perfect kickers for Thursday night, with Younghoe Koo (9 for 9) and Chase McLaughlin (7 for 7) maintaining 100% accuracy this season. Both are 3 for 3 from beyond 50 yards, making them solid salary-saving options in a game that may lack touchdowns.

While the defenses are expected to keep things close, I'm not high on either unit. Atlanta’s defense has just four sacks over four games, and while Tampa Bay had six last week, I prefer the Falcons' defense as a lower-owned option, given Baker Mayfield's potential for negative regression toward his career splits. That said, I would avoid defenses if roster construction allows.