Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
Game Strategy
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Spread: Lions -3.5
- Lions Implied Team Total: 27
- 49ers Implied Team Total: 23.5
This is a game between two good offenses. Lineups should feature both sides with a lean toward the Lions. D/STs should not be considered.
One thing to keep in mind this week is that Detroit has nothing to play for. While Dan Campbell is saying all the right things, they are in a position where if they win next week they are the number one seed regardless of the outcome of this game. If they lose this week it does not matter. So, this could have them take more precaution than they otherwise would. Campbell is saying that won't happen, but it remains to be seen how they'll approach this week.
Injury Roundup
- David Montgomery OUT
- Kalif Raymond OUT
Captain Consideration
Detroit Lions Showdown Players
Quarterback
Jared Goff - Captain/Flex
The Lions offense, coordinated by Ben Johnson, has been phenomenal for years. Jared Goff ranks second in passing yards per game (273) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) this season, and the Lions offense ranks fourth in EPA/Play. The matchup is a tough one for Goff as San Francisco has had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL this season allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. As a captain, there are enough receiving options for the Lions to look to that could spread the ball out to the point where he gets there, but he's likely a low-end captain this week.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs - Captain/Flex
Jahmyr Gibbs ranks fifth in total yards per game (106.4) and fourth in total touchdowns (15). He was already crushing sharing time with David Montgomery, but now Gibbs is a total workhorse without him. Last week, Gibbs saw 28 total opportunities and put up 154 total yards. This is a favorable matchup against a 49ers defense that ranks 26th in Rush EPA Allowed. Gibbs is the best captain play in this game. Gibbs will likely be the most popular captain, but it is difficult to fade him unless you believe that the Lions have a game plan where they pull their starters early in this one.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Captain/Flex
This projects as a favorable fantasy game and a potential shootout. Amon-Ra St. Brown can thrive in any environment, especially in one like this. He ranks third in receptions (101), fourth in receiving yards (1,126), and third in receiving touchdowns (11). He has seen 49 more targets, caught 54 more passes, and racked up 236 more receiving yards than any other teammate. Amon-Ra is going to draw a difficult matchup here as he'll need to deal with Deommodore Lenoir with help from Fred Warner over the middle who is one of the best coverage linebackers in football.
Jameson Williams - Captain/Flex
Jameson Williams leads the Lions in yards per reception (18.9). He just hauled in an 82-yard house call last week. That's the kind of big play ability you're getting when rostering the athletic and talented Williams. Williams is a boom/bust type player almost any time he takes the field, but he has caught a touchdown in each of his last two games and could cause the 49ers defense issues as the safeties are the most exploitable piece of that defense.
Tim Patrick - Flex
Kalif Raymond remains out. Tim Patrick's offensive snap percentages in the past four games without Raymond: 70%, 66%, 81%, and 65%. He'll be low-owned due to grabbing no receptions last week. Take advantage. He saw 15 total targets in the two games prior. He could be a player who if they pull Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jameson Williams early in this game, he would likely continue to play and could be in a big role this week.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta - Flex
Sam LaPorta has recently become more involved in the Lions offense. His targets over the past three weeks: 7, 10, and 7. He went over 100 receiving yards two weeks and scored a touchdown last week. He's very much in play as DraftKings has him priced affordably at just $5,800.
Kicker
Jake Bates - Flex
Jake Bates kicks for one of the best offenses in the NFL and has been reliable. That's a solid combination. He's made 58 of 59 extra points and 23 of 26 field goal attempts. Bates is a flex option, especially on FanDuel, where kickers matter more due to their half-point per reception scoring system.
D/ST
Avoid
San Francisco 49ers Showdown Players
Quarterback
Brock Purdy - Flex
Brock Purdy has had a solid season despite the 49ers' team aspirations falling short. Purdy ranks eighth in passing yards per game (249.1) and leads a San Francisco offense that ranks 14th in both EPA/Play and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He's at home and gets a matchup with a banged-up Lions defense.
Running Back
Isaac Guerendo - Flex
Isaac Guerendo missed last week but will return on Monday Night Football. In Week 15, he played on 76% of the offensive snaps and received 20 touches. Guerendo is talented and athletic, and any running back pushing 20 touches in San Francisco's backfield must be considered. Plus, expect ownership to be held in check thanks to recency bias since he didn't suit up last week.
Wide Receiver
Jauan Jennings - Captain/Flex
Jauan Jennings leads the 49ers in targets (93) in just 12 games played. He ranks second on the team in receptions (63), receiving yards (856), and touchdown receptions (6) only behind George Kittle. He's a strong play at home against a banged-up Lions defense priced relatively affordably on DraftKings at $7,800.
Deebo Samuel Sr. - Flex
Deebo Samuel Sr. has had a rough season, but he showed signs of life last week, carrying 5 times for 25 yards and catching 7 of 9 targets for 96 yards and 1 touchdown. The do-it-all Swiss army knife should find success against the banged-up Lions defense and is priced appropriately at $7,600.
Ricky Pearsall - Flex
Ricky Pearsall is a large-field tournament flex option. He played on 72% of the offensive snaps last week and has seen four targets in back-to-back games.
Tight End
George Kittle - Captain/Flex
George Kittle has had an incredible season. His ranks at the tight end position: fifth in receptions (68), third in receiving yards (967), and second in receiving touchdowns (8). Kittle is a strong play at home against a banged-up Lions defense.
Kicker
Jake Moody - Flex on FanDuel
Jake Moody has been shaky this season. He's missed seven kicks, all from 40 or more yards out. He's a large-field tournament flex option on FanDuel.
D/ST
Avoid
Position | Name | Salary | Projected Points | H-Value | Point/$ | Playable |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 11600 | 25.1 | 45.7 | 2.2 | Captain or Flex |
WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10600 | 19.0 | 30.9 | 1.8 | Captain or Flex |
QB | Jared Goff | 9800 | 19.4 | 34.6 | 2.0 | Captain or Flex |
QB | Brock Purdy | 9400 | 18.7 | 33.9 | 2.0 | Flex Only |
TE | George Kittle | 9000 | 14.8 | 23.6 | 1.6 | Captain or Flex |
RB | Isaac Guerendo | 8400 | 12.3 | 18.5 | 1.5 | Flex Only |
WR | Jameson Williams | 8000 | 13.6 | 22.9 | 1.7 | Captain or Flex |
WR | Jauan Jennings | 7800 | 15.9 | 30.7 | 2.0 | Captain or Flex |
WR | Deebo Samuel Sr.. | 7600 | 14.0 | 25.5 | 1.8 | Flex Only |
RB | Patrick Taylor Jr.. | 6400 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 0.7 | |
TE | Sam LaPorta | 5800 | 11.3 | 23.0 | 1.9 | Flex Only |
K | Jake Bates | 5000 | 7.2 | 12.2 | 1.4 | Fle |
K | Jake Moody | 4800 | 7.8 | 14.6 | 1.6 | Flex Only |
DST | Detroit Lions | 4400 | 7.5 | 15.0 | 1.7 | |
WR | Tim Patrick | 4000 | 7.5 | 16.4 | 1.9 | Flex Only |
WR | Ricky Pearsall | 3600 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 1.4 | Flex Only |
DST | San Francisco 49ers | 3400 | 6.0 | 13.1 | 1.8 | |
RB | Craig Reynolds | 3000 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | Flex Only |
RB | Kyle Juszczyk | 2400 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | |
RB | Sione Vaki | 2000 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | |
TE | Brock Wright | 1600 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | |
TE | Eric Saubert | 1200 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | |
WR | Allen Robinson II | 800 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
WR | Jacob Cowing | 600 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
RB | Jermar Jefferson | 400 | 2.5 | 24.6 | 6.3 | Flex Only |
WR | Chris Conley | 200 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | |
WR | Tom Kennedy | 200 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | |
TE | Shane Zylstra | 200 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |
TE | Brayden Willis | 200 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 |