Two-Game Slate

• Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 44.5
• Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders - Over/Under 44.5

On a two game slate, you really need to approach this with game narratives for both games in mind. Try to project out how you could see the games going. For example, could Minnesota put up 30+ points and blowout a Bears team that some feel might have quit last week against San Francisco? If so, you're going to want to stack up Vikings players. Will the Raiders be able to move the ball with Desmond Ridder? If not, the Falcons rushing offense could be more viable in a low scoring game that they just control the ball. Could the Bears offense put up enough fight in a favorable matchup for that game to be a shootout?

Injury Roundup

• Roschon Johnson OUT
• Zamir White OUT
• Maxx Crosby OUT
• D'Andre Swift Questionable
• Aidan O'Connell Questionable

Desmond Ridder is expected to start per Adam Schefter. As always check the below for the official Actives/Inactives list. https://www.footballguys.com/gameday-updates

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold, Minnesota ($6,600)

Sam Darnold ranks eighth in passing yards per game (253.8) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and leads an awesome Vikings offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play, fifth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and third in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). After a strong start to the season, the Bears defense ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 9. Darnold is at home and is the number one quarterback play.

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta ($5,500)

Kirk Cousins ranks fourth in passing yards per game and leads a Falcons offense that ranks 12th in EPA/Play. He gets a bad Raiders defense that ranks 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed, who are now without their best player, Maxx Crosby, due to injury.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta ($7,600)

Bijan Robinson is a lock button play. He ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21), fifth in total yards per game (106), and 13th in total touchdowns (9). The Falcons are 4.5-point favorites, and Robinson gets to attack a bad Raiders defense that ranks 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed, who are now without their best player, Maxx Crosby, due to injury.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota ($6,500)

Aaron Jones ranks 16th in opportunities per game (18.5) and 13th in total yards per game. The Vikings are seven-point home favorites, and Jones gets a Bears defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 9 and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed throughout the entire season. The Bears defense is close to quitting. No Matt Eberflus calling plays had a massive impact last week as the Bears gave up 38 points to San Francisco last week. Will they be able to respond with just four weeks left, or is this a scenario where they're looking towards the future? They've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and are allowing the second-most since Week 8. 

Sincere McCormick, Las Vegas ($5,100)

Sincere McCormick has taken over as the Raiders' starting running back. Zamir White is out, and despite Alexander Mattison returning this week, Antonio Pierce has stated that McCormick will remain the guy. Over the past two weeks, McCormick has seen 32 opportunities and racked up 154 total yards. He's playing at home in this one against a Falcons defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota ($8,200)

We know Justin Jefferson can go nuclear any given week, but it was finally nice to see it again last week. Jefferson went off, catching all seven of his targets for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jefferson ranks third in receiving yards per game and gets a Bears' defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 9. The only concern is that in this offense that has so many options, are we calling last week an outlier performance, or is it going to spark a hot streak for Jefferson? It seems more likely that it was an outlier. Having 132 yards and 2 touchdowns on just seven targets for most players is not sustainable. Jefferson is only averaging eight targets per game over his last eight games, and while he's unique enough to sustain production, this is a week where you either go all in with Jefferson or feel comfortable fading him as he's expensive at $8,200. 

Drake London, Atlanta ($6,400)

Drake London ranks 13th in targets per game (8.9). He's a solid volume bet against a bad Raiders defense that ranks 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed, who are now without their best player, Maxx Crosby, due to injury. Las Vegas has allowed seven receivers to top 50 yards or more in their last three games, as while hthis defense has done a good job at preventing the massive game, they've allowed consistently productive games to opposing wide receivers. 

Jordan Addison, Minnesota ($5,900)

Jordan Addison has scored six touchdowns in his past six games and went bonkers last week, catching 8 of 12 targets for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns. Just three weeks ago, Addison caught 8 of his 9 targets for 162 yards and 1 touchdown against this same Bears opponent. He projects as a great play against a Bears' defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 9.

Darnell Mooney, Atlanta ($5,500)

Darnell Mooney has seen 22 fewer targets and caught 18 fewer passes than Drake London this season. Yet, he leads the Falcons in receiving yards (873). Mooney has had a great season with a high 15.3 yards per reception. Mooney has a high ceiling in this one, making him an exciting tournament play against a bad Raiders defense that ranks 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed, who are now without their best player, Maxx Crosby, due to injury.

DJ Moore, Chicago ($5,800)

The Bears' wide receiver trio is tough to predict on a weekly basis, but the top option is still DJ Moore, who leads Chicago in targets (104), receptions (68), and receiving yards (712). Moore's volume has been consistent over the past four games: 7, 7, 16, and 8. Just three weeks ago, Moore caught all seven of his targets for 106 yards and 1 touchdown against this same Vikings defense. Minnesota's pass defense has consistently been one of the worst in the NFL all season, as they've allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas ($6,600)- If Aidan O'Connell Starts

What an incredible rookie season Brock Bowers is having. He leads all tight ends in targets (113), receptions (87), and receiving yards (933). He's in a great spot at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Bowers has been volatile as of late as three of his last five games have went for under 50 yards, but the other two games in that stretch have both been over 125 yards. If you get the ceiling game from Bowers, he has a ceiling that no one else on this slate can come close to, but otherwise you're likely overpaying for the tight end. Those three games that he went under 50 yards were all games that Desmond Ridder played in, so it's safe to say that if Ridder were to play, it would greatly hurt Bowers' upside this week. 

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota ($4,800)

T.J. Hockenson has now been back from last season's ACL injury for six weeks. He's settled into a mid-60% offensive snap share role. That hasn't resulted in fantastic fantasy results. However, he has had one spike week, and it was three weeks ago against this same Bears defense. Hockeson caught 7 of 9 targets for 114 yards in that one. The matchup is fantastic for Hockenson to have another strong game against a Bears' defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 9.

Cole Kmet, Chicago ($3,800)

Cole Kmet is an affordable large-field tournament option. Like T.J. Hockenson, Kmet hasn't had a fantastic fantasy season. However, three weeks ago, he posted a decent stat line against this very same Vikings defense. Kmet caught 7 of 10 targets for 64 yards in that one. Kmet plays almost every offensive snap weekly, increasing his odds of posting a random spike week.

Team Defenses

Vikings ($3,400)

The Vikings' defense ranks second-best in EPA/Play Allowed and fifth-best in Dropback EPA Allowed. Brain Flores has been amazing this year in calling Minnesota's defense. The Vikings are seven-point home favorites in this spot. Caleb Williams leads the NFL in sacks taken (56) and has taken 15 more than anyone else. Minnesota boasts one of the league's best pass rush that should be able to take advantage of this matchup, as the Vikings are fourth in sacks per game this season. 

Falcons ($3,200)

The Falcons' defense makes sense in tournaments. Aidan O'Connell is questionable after not practicing all week. If he plays, he'll be less than 100%. If he's out, then Desmond Ridder will start. Ridder threw only 12 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions last season in 15 games. The issue for the Falcons is that their pass rush has been non-existent all season as they have just 19 sacks on the y

Player Projections