DraftKings Monday Showdown: Week 13

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

Game Strategy

• Over/Under: 41.5
• Spread: Broncos -5.5
• Broncos Implied Team Total: 23.5
• Browns Implied Team Total: 18

This contest has the second-lowest Over/Under (41.5) of the week. Vegas expects it to be a low-scoring affair, putting D/STs and Kickers in play on this slate. If playing them, lean towards Denver since they're 5.5-point home favorites.

Injury Roundup

• Cedric Tillman OUT
• Josh Reynolds Questionable

Captain Consideration

• Bo Nix
• Courtland Sutton
• David Njoku
• Jameis Winston

 Denver Broncos Showdown Players

Quarterback

Bo Nix - Captain/Flex

Bo Nix is absolutely cooking. Over the past three weeks, Nix has thrown for 795 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He's at home against a Browns defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. Cleveland's passing game has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks as of late, but have avoided the massive game. Over the last four weeks, only Derek Carr has thrown for less than 270 yards (248), but the Browns have not allowed a 300-yard passer all season. The Browns have also not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game this year, so while Nix should have a good game, it seems unlikely that he will repeat his 307 yard 4 touchdown performance that he had back in Week 11. 

Running Back

Javonte Williams - Flex

Javonte Williams is a very thin play. As a runner, he seems to be falling out of favor in Denver as in two of his past three games, his rushing stat lines have been 1 carry for 1 yard and 8 carries for -2 yards. However, Williams has played on over 50% of the offensive snaps in every game except for one (Week 10) and he ranks second on the Broncos in both targets (48) and receptions (37). The Broncos are 5.5-point home favorites and Williams gets a Browns defense that ranks just 27th in Rush EPA Allowed. Williams does have six red zone opportunities over the last three games, so the hope here is that he's able to find the end-zone despite the team not really trusting their rushing offense at this point in the season. 

Jaleel McLaughlin - Flex

Jaleel McLaughlin is a large-field tournament play that provides leverage off Javonte Williams. McLaughlin's playing time dipped in Weeks 10 and 11 but returned to his around 30% offensive snap share last week. McLaughlin led the Broncos in rushing yards (44) last week and possesses enough athleticism to break a long one in this favorable matchup.

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton - Captain/Flex

Courtland Sutton has been on an absolute tear over his past five games. Over that span, he's seen 48 targets (9.6 per), made 36 receptions (7.2 per), racked up 467 receiving yards (93.4 per), and found the end zone three times. Sutton is the Broncos' clear-cut alpha receiver and is in a great spot at home against a Browns defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. Sutton should see a lot of Martin Emerson Jr as the Browns do not shadow Denzel Ward at this point in his career. While Ward is still a corner that should be approached with caution, Emerson is one of the league's worst cornerbacks so Sutton should have a significant opportunity this week. 

Devaughn Vele - Flex

Devaughn Vele played less than 65% of the offensive snaps in any week through Week 9. Over the past three weeks, he's hit that mark in every game. Vele's playing time has increased and he's become a mainstay as Denver's wide receiver two. Vele has four or more catches in three straight and set career highs last week in targets (9) and receiving yards (80). Calvin Austin III torched the Browns last week out of the slot for 78 yards and a touchdown, and at just $6,400, Vele provides a cheap way to stack some of the Broncos this week. 

Marvin Mims Jr. - Flex

Sean Payton may have finally found a role that allows Marvin Mims Jr. to be a playmaker in this Broncos offense. He's utilizing Mims in the receiving game while lined up in the backfield. That usage and alignment have helped Mims rack up nine receptions over his past three games. Receiving yards in his last two games: 49 and 44. At just $2,800, Mims is a value play with some risk this week, but does give you flexibility to build out the rest of your roster by getting a player with an actual role. 

Tight End

N/A

Cleveland Browns Showdown Players

Quarterback

Jameis Winston - Captain/Flex

Jameis Winston is a gunslinger. In his four starts this season, he leads the NFL in passing yards per game (295.8). He's thrown six touchdowns over that stretch as well. The matchup is a tough one on the road against a Broncos defense that ranks seventh-best in EPA/Play Allowed and fourth-best in Dropback EPA Allowed. The matchup is a difficult one as Denver is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and no quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards this year against Denver. Playing at altitude is notoriously difficult, but we have seen a little bit of cracks in this defense as Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson both threw for over 250 yards in recent weeks against Denver.

Running Back

Nick Chubb - Flex

Nick Chubb has now been back for five weeks and just set season highs in opportunities (21), touches (21), total yards (60), and touchdowns (2) last week. He's a touchdown threat but the matchup isn't ideal against a Broncos defense that ranks seventh-best in EPA/Play Allowed and ninth-best in Rush EPA Allowed. So far, this just does not look like the player that he was pre-injury, and you are not getting any discount based on his recent performances at just $9,400 as his price is inflated due to the Steelers game last week where he scored two touchdowns while averaging just 3.0 yards per carry.

Jerome Ford- Flex

This is more of a strategy play than anything else. There are a couple of reasons to like Jerome Ford this week as a high-risk upside play. First, he has big play potential with two carries over 30 yards this season, he's a running back who consistently tries to break the big play which is not great for a real life running back, but for fantasy, we'd rather have a player look for the 10+ point long touchdown play than take the five yard gain. The second reason is at just $4,400, he's extremely cheap backing up a running back who has struggled with health and has not looked all the way back to full health. At altitude, in the cold, could the Browns have more of a timeshare backfield depending on how in shape Nick Chubb is. While Chubb was on the field for 66% of the plays last week, Ford has outsnapped Chubb in two of the three games the running backs have been on the field together. 

Wide Receiver

Jerry Jeudy - Flex

Cedric Tillman will miss this game due to a concussion, which narrows the target tree in Cleveland. And Jerry Jeudy already leads the team in targets (78), receptions (45), and receiving yards (645). Jeudy has excelled in Jameis Winston's four starts, averaging 94.8 receiving yards per game (would rank third in the NFL if over the full season). Jeudy's upside is limited here as he's likely going to see a lot of Patrick Surtain II who is likely the league's best cornerback in 2024. 

Elijah Moore - Flex

Elijah Moore has seen eight or more targets in three of Jameis Winston's four starts. He projects to be plenty busy once again with Cedrick Tillman out due to a concussion. And unlike Jerry Jeudy, he projects to see very little of Patrick Surtain II in coverage. Moore will primarily line up out of the slot, which we've seen slot receivers have big games against this Denver defense as last week both Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker both had over 80 yards with most of their damage coming out of the slot, and Zay Flowers back in Week 9 took advantage of the slot mismatch with 5 receptions for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns. Moore likely does not have that big play potential, which is the concern that will limit his upside, as he's averaging just 8.0 yards per catch, but at $7,800 is a fine flex play this week. 

Tight End

David Njoku - Captain/Flex

David Njoku has seen seven or more targets in three of Jameis Winston's four starts. He's one of the league's most talented tight ends and projects to be the largest beneficiary of the absence of Cedric Tillman. There is some risk here, as the Broncos have see their fair share of elite pass catching tight ends in recent weeks. Over the last four games, Denver has faced Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, and Mark Andrews and only Kelce had over 50 yards or a touchdown as he had 8 receptions for 64 yards with a score. 

Team Defenses and Special Teams

Denver Broncos- Captain/Flex

Despite having an overall lack of stars on this defense, Denver is playing at an extremely high level at the moment. They lead the NFL in sacks, Patrick Surtain II is the lone star at corner and is playing at an extremely high level. With Jameis Winston at quarterback, you honestly never know which team he is going to throw the ball to, but things get sloppy when he's under pressure as evidenced by his three interception game against the Chargers in which he was sacked six times. With left tackle Jed Wills out this week, the Browns will be forced to start their third string left tackle Germaine Ifedi who has struggled in his limited playing time this season. 

Dustin Hopkins- Flex

The Broncos are the league's best red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 39% of the time teams get down into the red zone. With the Browns having an inconsistent rushing game and without their biggest wide receiver in this game, this could play right into the hands of the Denver defense and lead to a lot of field goals for Hopkins this week. 

Player Chart