Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
Game Strategy
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Spread: Texans -7.5
- Texans Implied Team Total: 25
- Cowboys Implied Team Total: 17.5
The Cowboys' 17.5 Implied Team Total is the second-lowest of the entire week. Dallas is free-falling, especially without Dak Prescott. This is a Texans onslaught slate, including their D/ST and Kicker being good plays as well.
Injury Roundup
- CeeDee Lamb Questionable (Back) but expected to play
- Dak Prescott OUT
- Stefon Diggs OUT
Captain Consideration
Houston Texans Showdown Players
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud - Captain/Flex
C.J. Stroud hasn't lived up to expectations in his second season yet but he gets his main man, Nico Collins, back and has an incredible matchup against a Cowboys defense that ranks second-to-last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Stroud is a must-play in all formats.
Running Back
Joe Mixon - Captain/Flex
Joe Mixon leads the NFL in opportunities per game (25), ranks third in total yards per game (116.3), and ranks sixth in total touchdowns (8). The Texans are 7.5-point favorites and Mixon gets to feast on a Cowboys defense that ranks second-to-last in EPA/Play Allowed and fourth-to-last in Rush EPA Allowed. Mixon is a must-play in all formats.
Dameon Pierce - Flex
Dameon Pierce practiced in full on Friday and projects to be active for the first time since Week 8. He's only been active in four games this season due to injuries but in a blowout win against the Patriots earlier this season Pierce put up 77 total yards and a touchdown, thanks in large part to garbage time production. The Texans are 7.5-point favorites and project to cruise in this one, making Pierce an awesome tournament play in Showdown.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins - Captain/Flex
Nico Collins returns and even if his long absence creates 1% of leverage in ownership, it's worth taking advantage of the recency bias. Collins is a total superstar. He ranks seventh in targets per game (9), first in receiving yards per game (113.4), and fifth in total yards per game (113.4). Play him.
Tank Dell - Flex
We have yet to see what the splits will be for Nico Collins and Tank Dell without Stefon Diggs this season. Yet we know Dell was extremely relevant playing next to Collins in 2023. Dell only played on over 50% of the offensive snaps in eight contests last season. In those games, he averaged 8.4 targets, 5,.1 receptions, 77.3 receiving yards, and caught all 7 of his touchdowns. That 8.4 target average would've ranked 17th, and the 77.3 receiving yard average ranked 14th over the full NFL season. Back to 2024, Dell has seen nine targets in back-to-back games and just put up 126 receiving yards two games ago. He's an awesome play.
John Metchie III - Flex
John Metchie III's offensive snap percentages in the past two games without Stefon Diggs: 63% and 65%. He caught 5 of 6 targets last week for 74 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Metchie is in play in tournaments as a stack with Stroud.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz - Flex
Dalton Schultz caught five touchdowns in 2023 in Houston but hasn't scored yet this year. He's only seeing one fewer target per game this season. Schultz is a solid tournament play who is due for touchdown regression.
Dallas Cowboys Showdown Players
Quarterback
Cooper Rush - Fade
Cooper Rush threw for just 45 yards and fumbled twice last week. The Cowboys are a total disaster right now. Rush is in play as a flex only because he's a starting quarterback in a one-game Showdown but the matchup is a tough one against a Texans defense that ranks third-best in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Recommendation: Fade.
Running Back
Rico Dowdle - Flex
Rico Dowdle played on a season-high 71% of the offensive snaps two weeks ago with Ezekiel Elliott suspended by the team. Upon Elliott's return, Dowdle's playing time was reduced to just 52% of the offensive snaps last week. Mike McCarthy continued this week to reiterate Dowdle is Dallas' starting running back. Look for them to lean on Dowdle in this one to try to take pressure off the passing game. Elliott receiving any playing time at all would be embarrassing. Dowdle is the best Dallas play on the slate as he has the potential to rack up dump-off receptions on top of his rushing production.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb - Flex
CeeDee Lamb is one of the most talented receivers in the game but not even he can excel in this bad offensive environment without Dak Prescott. Add in the back injury that popped up mid-week and Lamb is not someone to be overweight on.
Jalen Tolbert - Flex
Jalen Tolbert is a full-time player. He has played 95% and 93% of the offensive snaps the past two weeks. He's a decent tournament flex since we're required to roster at least one Dallas Cowboy. While playing from behind, Tolbert should see volume and be lower owned than CeeDee Lamb.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson - Flex
Jake Ferguson is the second-best play on the Cowboys in this one behind only Rico Dowdle. Ferguson saw five targets and his 24 receiving yards accounted for 36% of Dallas' passing yards last week. He remains the second-best receiver on the team behind just CeeDee Lamb and projects to be a safety blanket for a quarterback in Cooper Rush who absolutely needs it.
| Position | Name | Salary | Projected Points | H-Value | Point/$ | Playable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Joe Mixon | 11000 | 20.7 | 34.5 | 1.9 | Captain or Flex |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | 10800 | 17.2 | 25.6 | 1.6 | Flex Only |
| WR | Nico Collins | 10400 | 20.8 | 37.0 | 2.0 | Captain or Flex |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | 9800 | 18.8 | 32.9 | 1.9 | Captain or Flex |
| WR | Tank Dell | 9400 | 12.1 | 15.9 | 1.3 | Flex Only |
| RB | Rico Dowdle | 9000 | 15.0 | 24.2 | 1.7 | Flex Only |
| QB | Cooper Rush | 8000 | 11.4 | 16.8 | 1.4 | Flex Only |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | 7000 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | |
| DST | Houston Texans | 6200 | 12.0 | 23.9 | 1.9 | Flex Only |
| QB | Trey Lance | 6000 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | 5800 | 9.8 | 17.8 | 1.7 | Flex Only |
| K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 5400 | 7.8 | 13.0 | 1.4 | |
| K | Brandon Aubrey | 5200 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 1.1 | |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | 5000 | 7.5 | 13.2 | 1.5 | Flex Only |
| WR | Jalen Tolbert | 4600 | 7.2 | 13.2 | 1.6 | Flex Only |
| WR | John Metchie III | 4000 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 1.3 | Flex Only |
| DST | Dallas Cowboys | 3600 | 7.3 | 17.2 | 2.0 | |
| WR | Xavier Hutchinson | 3400 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | |
| RB | Dare Ogunbowale | 3000 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 1.2 | |
| WR | Robert Woods | 2800 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | |
| RB | Ezekiel Elliott | 2600 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 1.3 | Flex Only |
| RB | Dameon Pierce | 2400 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | |
| WR | Jalen Brooks | 2000 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | Flex Only |
| TE | Cade Stover | 1600 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 1.5 | |
| RB | Dalvin Cook | 1400 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| WR | KaVontae Turpin | 1200 | 3.1 | 11.8 | 2.6 | |
| RB | Hunter Luepke | 1000 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | |
| TE | Luke Schoonmaker | 600 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | |
| RB | Deuce Vaughn | 400 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | |
| WR | Ryan Flournoy | 200 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 |