Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 18 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 18.

Note: The Vikings-Lions game is included on the FanDuel main slate but is not on the DraftKings main slate.

Upper Left: High-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but projected to score above the slate's average, making them prime targets for potential shootouts. The standout here is the Vikings. It's rare to see an underdog with an implied team total north of 27 points, but that's exactly the situation for Minnesota this week. Everything about their matchup against the Lions points to a shootout.

The Lions defense is reeling from injuries, allowing an average of 32.5 PPG over their last four games (37.7 PPG if you exclude a matchup against the struggling Bears). On the other side, Detroit's offense has been unstoppable, averaging 37.5 PPG in the same span. This game will not only decide the NFC's top seed and first-round bye but also boasts the highest projected score on the FanDuel main slate. We may never have a week in which the FanDuel and DraftKings lineups look more different because the FanDuel lineups are likely to feature a massive dose of players in this game.

Upper Right: High-Scoring Favorites
These teams are favorites with above-average implied totals, making them cornerstone options for both cash games and GPPs. Two NFC South contenders stand out in this quadrant:

• Tampa Bay: A win secures the NFC South and the final playoff spot in the conference. Facing a poor Saints defense that just allowed Ameer Abdullah to rack up 147 total yards, Bucky Irving is poised to dominate in this must-win game.

• Atlanta: The Falcons must beat the Panthers and hope for a Saints upset to have a chance. Their talented young offense, led by Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson, and Drake London, takes on a hapless Panthers defense that gave up 48 points last week. Even if Tampa Bay clinches the division, a strong showing from Atlanta's offensive core could provide momentum heading into 2025.

Bottom Right: Low-Scoring Favorites
Favorites in this quadrant have below-average implied totals, making them less appealing overall. However, running backs in positive game scripts remain viable, while passing options carry increased risk. This quadrant is unusually crowded in Week 18, and getting these teams right will be critical for DFS success.

• Dolphins: For this game to matter, Miami needs the Chiefs (likely playing backups) to upset Denver. Regardless, De'Von Achane remains a strong play, as it's unclear if the Jets will even show up.

• Backup Running Backs: Week 18 tournaments could hinge on identifying the right backup running backs.

  • Buffalo is favored despite resting starters, making Ray Davis a potential bellcow with 20+ touches.
  • Similarly, Philadelphia and Houston are incentivized to rest their starters, giving Kenneth Gainwell and Dameon Pierce heavy workloads in favorable game scripts.

Bottom Left: Low-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs with below-average implied team totals, making them the least appealing options. Players from these teams should only be considered if you have high confidence in their production, as the overall game environment offers little fantasy upside.

Week 18 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages are valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 18 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Falcons offense has been electric with Michael Penix Jr. under center, and they now face a dream matchup against a woeful Panthers defense. Last week, Carolina was gashed on the ground by Bucky Irving and also allowed Baker Mayfield to carve them up through the air, completing 27 of 32 attempts for 359 yards and five touchdowns. In total, the Panthers surrendered over 500 yards to the Buccaneers in Week 17. Wheels up for the Atlanta stars in Week 18.
• The Mac Jones-led Jaguars offense might be easy to overlook, but they are in a strong spot this week. The Colts just allowed Drew Lock to throw for 319 yards and score five total touchdowns in a meaningful game. Now, with Indianapolis eliminated from playoff contention, they may struggle to compete. Brian Thomas Jr. has an excellent opportunity to close out his rookie season with a big performance.

Week 18 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 18 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• The Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles headline the list of teams expected to rest their offensive stars in Week 18. Backup running backs are potentially in play here for tournaments.

DraftKings

Let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the DraftKings main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj)", and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

Three quarterbacks stand out as top options this week:

• Michael Penix Jr. is an affordable option with an ideal matchup and no concerns about the Falcons' motivation. As noted earlier, the Panthers just allowed Baker Mayfield to torch them for 359 yards and five touchdowns. Penix is set up for a big game against Carolina's struggling defense. The 28.2 implied team total is juicy for a quarterback priced below $5,500. I lean towards Penix for cash games.
• Baker Mayfield is next on the list. The Buccaneers must win to secure a playoff spot, and they face a Saints defense that gave up 25 points to the Raiders last week. While I expect New Orleans to put up a fight against their division rival, that could only increase Mayfield's ceiling as Tampa Bay may try to run up the score if given the chance. His higher salary makes him more of a tournament play, but stacking Mayfield with Mike Evans and/or Jalen McMillan could pay off.
• Justin Herbert also deserves consideration. Jim Harbaugh will be motivated to secure a win over the Raiders in Week 18 to avoid a potential first-round matchup against his brother. Herbert is coming off a strong performance, throwing for 281 yards and three touchdowns in a blowout win over the Patriots last week, and should continue that momentum against Las Vegas.

• While Kenny McIntosh's increased involvement last week is a minor concern, Zach Charbonnet remains an elite option in Week 18. The Seahawks are in a must-win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Rams are likely to rest key players. Sean McVay has a well-documented history of prioritizing rest in these scenarios, which could set Charbonnet up for a big day.
• I love Michael Carter this week. He played 72% of the snaps in Week 17, taking on a near full-time role after James Conner exited. Carter should once again dominate opportunities in the Cardinals' backfield as they face the 49ers. San Francisco seemed to empty the tank in their Monday night showdown with the Lions and may struggle to muster the same energy for this game. The 49ers' defense was no match for Detroit, and I expect Carter to find success in this matchup.
• If you're paying up for anyone, make it Bijan Robinson. He played a season-high 91% of snaps last week against the Commanders and should see another game with 20+ opportunities against a terrible Panthers defense. Carolina gave up nearly 200 yards of total offense to Bucky Irving last week. Robinson has a legitimate shot at posting similar yardage numbers, and if he finds the end zone once or twice, he will be the must-roster player for Week 18.

• In my Week 17 FanDuel tournament article, I recommended the two rookie LSU wide receivers, and it's a strategy that remains viable in Week 18. Last week, Malik Nabers exploded for seven catches, 171 yards, and two touchdowns against the Colts. This week, his former college teammate Brian Thomas Jr. takes on the same Indianapolis defense. Thomas has seen double-digit targets in five straight games and has established himself as one of the league's premier wide receivers. Building cash game and tournament lineups around the two LSU rookies while taking advantage of value at running back is a strong approach this week.
• While LSU might claim the title of WRU, Ohio State isn't far behind. A pair of Buckeyes, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Garrett Wilson, stand out as excellent mid-tier value options at $6,100 and $6,000, respectively. Both project to see 9–11 targets and have the talent to deliver big performances on that kind of volume.

• With the Commanders locked into a playoff spot and likely to rest their starters, the Cowboys passing offense has an opportunity to shine. With CeeDee Lamb on injured reserve, Jake Ferguson has emerged as a key target for Cooper Rush. This is a favorable matchup for Ferguson, and his sub-$4K price tag makes it much easier to afford the top wide receiver options mentioned earlier. He's a strong value play this week.

• The Seahawks are likely to face Jimmy Garoppolo in a game where Seattle's motivation will be significantly higher. With the Rams expected to rest key players like Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams and potentially play backup offensive linemen, this sets up as an ideal spot for the Seattle defense. They were dominant in Week 17 and have a strong chance to deliver another standout performance in this favorable matchup.

FanDuel

Now, let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the FanDuel main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj"), and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

• As noted in the matchup section, there is a significant difference in strategy between DraftKings and FanDuel this week due to the inclusion of the Sunday Night Vikings-Lions game on the FanDuel main slate. Sam Darnold and Jared Goff are strong options for cash games and tournaments. Of the two, I lean slightly toward Darnold. We've seen top quarterbacks shred the Lions' defense in recent weeks, with Brock Purdy looking nearly unstoppable through three quarters on Monday night before fading late. Darnold has elite weapons at his disposal, and with the Vikings needing to be aggressive to keep pace with Detroit's high-powered offense, this game has all the ingredients for a big fantasy day from the Panthers' signal-caller.

• Jahmyr Gibbs is a cash game lock this week in the anticipated shootout against the Vikings. In their prior matchup, Gibbs delivered his best performance of the season with 160 total yards and two touchdowns. While the Lions leaned on their backups in last week's meaningless game against the 49ers, Gibbs should handle a full workload in this high-stakes Week 18 matchup with playoff implications.
• Bucky Irving is another strong play, offering affordability in a fantastic matchup against the Saints. He's a more dynamic version of Ameer Abdullah, who racked up 150 total yards of offense against New Orleans last week. Irving is positioned to take full advantage of this opportunity and deliver big results.

• In addition to the two LSU star wide receivers discussed in the DraftKings section, the FanDuel main slate includes a third LSU standout in a prime spot: Justin Jefferson facing the Lions.
• While Jahmyr Gibbs and Justin Jefferson will likely be the most popular ways to target this high-scoring Vikings-Lions matchup, don't overlook Jameson Williams and Jordan Addison. Both have proven to be strong secondary options in their respective passing games behind their star wide receiver counterparts. Williams, in particular, is an excellent value play, given his recent production and the fantastic matchup against Minnesota, making him a top priority in both cash games and tournaments.
• I also like Drake London for cash games this week. The price gap between London and Brian Thomas Jr. is significantly larger on FanDuel than on DraftKings, making London an excellent value option on FanDuel to gain exposure to Atlanta's passing game.

• As on DraftKings, the Seahawks stand out as the top cash game play. They are likely to face Jimmy Garoppolo in a game where Seattle's motivation will be significantly higher. With the Rams expected to rest key players like Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams and potentially play backup offensive linemen, this sets up as an ideal spot for the Seattle defense. They were dominant in Week 17 and have a strong chance to deliver another standout performance in this favorable matchup.