Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 15 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 15.

The spread is so big in the Ravens game that it makes the visualization harder to see, so let's drop it and look at just the remaining games:

Note: The FanDuel Main Slate includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Packers and Seahawks. The DraftKings Main Slate does not.

Upper Left: High-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them intriguing targets for potential shootouts. In Week 14, only the Rams (playing the Bills) were in this quadrant. The Rams-Bills game delivered on its shootout potential in a big way. In Week 15, the Bills are now in the role of underdog but are once again involved in the only game on the slate with obvious shootout potential. In fact, this game is unique in that this is one of the first times all season an underdog (Buffalo) has one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. After notching six touchdowns last week, Josh Allen will be a popular tournament option.

Upper Right: High-Scoring Favorites
These teams are favorites with above-average implied team totals, making them priority targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts in this quadrant enhance the appeal of running backs. As noted above, the Ravens are such huge favorites they skewed the whole visualization. If this game goes according to script, it is a chance for Derrick Henry to get back on track. He has not scored more than 17.0 DraftKings points since all the way back in Week 9. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals red-hot passing offense are also healthy favorites with a solid team total at Tennessee. This could be a week in which paying up for a top wide receiver like Chase is much more popular than normal.

Bottom Right: Low-Scoring Favorites
Favorites in this quadrant have below-average implied totals, which makes them less appealing overall. Running backs, however, remain viable due to likely positive game scripts, while passing game options carry increased risk. The Jets are the only team favored with a team total below 22 points.  If Breece Hall misses another week, there is a case to be made for Braelon Allen or Isaiah Davis. Davis played 53% of the snaps last week and earned 16 opportunities with 10 carries and 6 targets.

Bottom Left: Low-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs with below-average implied team totals, offering the least appeal across the slate. Roster players from these teams only if you have high confidence in their production, as the overall game environment is unlikely to support consistent fantasy success.

Week 15 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 15 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Panthers offense has come alive in recent weeks. While the team has lost three straight, they were in position to upset three strong opponents (Eagles, Buccaneers, and Chiefs) during this stretch. Bryce Young has averaged 251 passing yards per game over this span. Carolina is projected for a 27% scoring boost compared to their season average.
• The Bengals defense has been a disaster this season. Will Levis, Tony Pollard, and Calvin Ridley have underperformed lately, but it's hard not to get excited about any heavily used skill position player facing Cincinnati. The Titans are projected for a 20% scoring boost over their season average.
• This is a prime "get-right" spot for the Cardinals, and their matchup against the Patriots offers sneaky shootout potential. Kyler Murray and Trey McBride project very well for Arizona, which is expected to see a 17% Week 15 scoring boost. On the other side, Drake Maye has been impressive, and the Patriots are projected for an 18% Week 15 boost.

Week 15 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 15 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• The Steelers passing offense will likely be without top weapon George Pickens as they face an incredibly difficult matchup against an elite Eagles defense. Philadelphia did allow some production to Chuba Hubbard last week, however, which keeps Najee Harris in play as a tournament consideration.
• The Bills-Lions matchup features a high game total, but the implied team totals for both teams are below their season averages. This suggests the top weapons on both sides are likely priced appropriately. While there is upside if this game turns into a shootout like the Bills-Rams game earlier this season, it's not a slam-dunk spot to target. Buffalo and Detroit carry negative Week 15 boosts of 15% and 11%, respectively.
• While Alvin Kamara remains a strong point-per-dollar option, there's reason to be cautious about his Week 15 outlook. With Derek Carr out, the Saints are projected for a negative 20% weekly boost. Additionally, Kendre Miller returned last week, played 26% of the snaps, and looked deserving of an expanded role moving forward.

DraftKings

Let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the DraftKings main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj)", and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

• As noted above in the best matchup section, this is a fantastic spot for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense. The Patriots give up the 9th most fantasy points above average to opposing quarterbacks (1.4 PPG), and Murray has significant rushing upside. However, his lack of passing touchdowns remains a concern, with just 39 thrown over his last 32 games dating back to the start of the 2022 season.
• The Bengals allow 3.4 fantasy points per game above average to opposing quarterbacks, the third most in the NFL. This is another great spot for Will Levis, but he disappointed last week in a similarly favorable matchup against the Jaguars. Proceed with caution. As noted last week, when Levis topped the point-per-dollar rankings, it's often worth rostering players whose talent you believe in, even if the metrics suggest otherwise.
• Bo Nix faces a Colts defense that allows the 12th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. With Denver fresh off a bye week and this game carrying significant playoff implications for both teams, Nix stands out as one of the top plays on the slate. Unlike Levis, it's easy to trust Nix as a reliable player in this spot.

• Chuba Hubbard once again takes over the Panthers backfield following promising rookie Jonathon Brooks' ACL tear last week. In his solo lead role, Hubbard saw an impressive 31 opportunities, including 26 carries and five targets, against the Eagles. This week, the matchup improves significantly against a Cowboys defense that allows the 10th most points above expectation to opposing running backs (1.6 PPG).
• Staying in the Panthers-Cowboys game, Rico Dowdle is a strong choice for your second cash-game running back. Over the past two weeks, Dowdle has rushed for 243 yards on 40 carries and added three or more targets in six of his last seven games. He has emerged as a true workhorse for the Cowboys, playing at least 70% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks. The Panthers allow a league-high 6.5 PPG above expectation to opposing running backs, making this a prime matchup.
• Saquon Barkley disappointed last week in a great spot against Carolina, leaving many hesitant to pay his lofty price tag in Week 15. While the matchup against the Steelers appears challenging, Pittsburgh has been much stronger against the pass than the run this season. Barkley always carries slate-breaking potential due to his explosiveness and remains a viable option.

• Adam Thielen has been a core play in my Friday afternoon Underdog Pick 'em article for the past two weeks, thanks to laughably low receiving yardage over/unders in the low 40s. He cleared those marks with ease, posting back-to-back games of at least 99 yards and racking up 21 targets over that span. At just $5,400, his volume and production make him the biggest cash-game lock of the week at wide receiver.
• The biggest roster construction decision in cash games this week revolves around whether to stick with mid-range options like Garrett Wilson, Malik Nabers, and Courtland Sutton (all priced in the mid-$6,000 range) or to allocate the salary cap space needed to roster a high-ceiling WR1 like Nico Collins or Ja'Marr Chase. Chase, priced at $8,400, is especially enticing. He has recorded eight touchdowns of at least 20 yards this season, more than double any other pass catcher in the NFL.

• David Njoku is my top cash-game play this week. He's been a target magnet, with an incredible 30 targets over the last two games. While the Chiefs have been stout against the run, their pass defense has shown vulnerabilities, particularly against tight ends. On the season, Kansas City allows the third most points per game above expectation to opposing tight ends.
• A second tight end in the Flex spot is a strong consideration for cash game lineups this week. Trey McBride has three consecutive games with at least 12 targets and is averaging 13.7 targets per game over that stretch. No wide receiver priced at $6,000 or below can expect that kind of volume.
• If deciding between Njoku and McBride, touchdowns make an excellent tiebreaker. McBride has yet to score this season, while Njoku has found the end zone three times in the last two weeks.

FanDuel

Now, let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the FanDuel main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj"), and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

• A pair of rookie quarterbacks stand out this week on FanDuel: Bo Nix and Drake Maye. Both have top-five rushing projections at the position and are priced affordably in solid matchups.

• In tournaments, Derrick Henry stands out as a high-upside play this week. While he has gone through a bit of a cold stretch, much of it has come against strong rushing defenses. This week, he has a fantastic matchup against the Giants, who allow the sixth-most points per game above average to opposing running backs and are dealing with key defensive injuries.
• The best way to gain exposure to the high-scoring Bills-Lions matchup might be through Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bills allow the second-most points per game above average to opposing running backs, conceding 4.4 points per game in half-PPR scoring.

This season, we've had great success targeting wide receivers in the low $6,000 price range on FanDuel, and this week offers two standout options.

• Adam Thielen has posted back-to-back games with at least 99 receiving yards and continues to see heavy usage in an improving Carolina passing attack.
• Calvin Ridley has an elite matchup against a Bengals defense that allows 3.4 half-PPR points per game above average to opposing wide receivers, making them the 8th-friendliest in the NFL. Cincinnati has also lost two starting cornerbacks to season-ending injuries over the past five weeks.

• David Njoku remains the top cash-game pick this week. He's been a target magnet, with 30 targets over the last two games. The Chiefs struggle to contain tight ends, allowing the third-most points per game above expectation to the position.