Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 14 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 14.

Note: The FanDuel Main Slate includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chargers and Chiefs. The DraftKings Main Slate does not.

Upper Left: High-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them intriguing targets for potential shootouts. Among this week’s underdogs, the Rams stand out with a solid implied team total. Opening as 3.5-point home underdogs against Buffalo, the line has since shifted to 5.0 points, driven by an increase in Buffalo's implied total and a rise in the game total to 49.5. The Bills’ defense has allowed 5.2 fantasy PPG above average to opposing running backs (PPR scoring)—the second-most in the NFL—creating a strong opportunity for Kyren Williams to thrive.

Upper Right: High-Scoring Favorites
These teams are favorites with above-average implied team totals, making them priority targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts in this quadrant enhance the appeal of running backs. The Eagles, as 12-point home favorites against the Panthers, have an ideal setup for Saquon Barkley, given Carolina’s status as the league’s most generous matchup for opposing running backs. Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are also significant home favorites this week, with Bucky Irving and Najee Harris emerging as popular tournament options after strong Week 13 performances.

Bottom Right: Low-Scoring Favorites
Favorites in this quadrant have below-average implied totals, which makes them less appealing overall. Running backs, however, remain viable due to likely positive game scripts, while passing game options carry increased risk. Tennessee is the only Week 14 favorite in this category. Tony Pollard, who saw 29 opportunities in Week 12 but struggled last week in a poor game script, could benefit from a more favorable scenario this week, making him a consideration.

Bottom Left: Low-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs with below-average implied team totals, offering the least appeal across the slate. Roster players from these teams only if you have high confidence in their production, as the overall game environment is unlikely to support consistent fantasy success.

Week 14 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 14 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The Dolphins have consistently appeared on this list, thanks to the offense's significant improvement since Tua Tagovailoa returned. Jonnu Smith has seen his price rise considerably but remains a bargain, averaging 8.3 catches, 100.3 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game over his last three.

• The Browns face a tough matchup against the Steelers, but it’s hard to bet against Jameis Winston and this passing offense right now. Expect their implied team total to potentially rise closer to kickoff, with the Week 14 boost climbing even higher than the current 11%.

• The Eagles stand out with a relatively modest 8% Week 14 Boost, paired with a massive 29.0-point implied team total. This could be a week where Saquon Barkley delivers another huge performance or one where Jalen Hurts capitalizes with multiple short rushing touchdowns.

Week 14 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 14 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• The Falcons face arguably the league’s best defense, which presents a significant challenge for their struggling passing offense. Through the first nine weeks, Kirk Cousins and the Falcons performed well, with a 17-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, the Atlanta passing offense has faltered over the past three games, with Cousins posting a 0-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio during this skid.

• The Chargers' passing offense has shown flashes of greatness but remains too inconsistent to rely upon. While a Justin Herbert-Ladd McConkey stack could potentially win a GPP at some point this season, it is less likely to happen in Week 14 against a formidable Chiefs defense.

DraftKings

Let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the DraftKings main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj)", and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

• Aidan O’Connell threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. This week, he faces a more favorable matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that allows 5.2 PPG above the league average to opposing quarterbacks, the second-highest in the NFL. At a sub-$5,000 price tag, O’Connell appears to be a top option for Week 14 cash games.

• Among the top quarterbacks on the main slate, only Kyler Murray projects to score more than five fantasy points with his rushing ability. This rushing upside enhances his appeal as a tournament play, especially since many managers may overlook him while trying to allocate salary cap space to roster the top two running backs.

• Jameis Winston has averaged 336 passing yards per game in his five starts. Excluding the Week 12 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which was played in blizzard-like conditions, his numbers are even more impressive.

• Alvin Kamara has an eye-opening 26.0 projection, bolstered by 11.4 projected receiving points. His 3.25 PPD projection makes him a cash-game lock. However, he has now gone six straight weeks without a touchdown.

• Saquon Barkley has scored 36+ DraftKings points in three of his last five games and is facing a Carolina Panthers defense that surrenders 7.9 PPG above average to opposing running backs. In cash games, it's advisable to find a way to include both Barkley and Kamara in your lineup.

• One strategy to fit both Kamara and Barkley into lineups is to select your preferred running back option from the Chicago Bears-San Francisco 49ers game. While Isaac Guerendo will be more popular and the 49ers are home favorites, don't overlook D'Andre Swift. The 49ers allow the fifth-most fantasy points above average to opposing running backs.

• Jauan Jennings has played nearly every snap over the past four weeks, averaging 6.3 catches for 70.0 yards per game.

• Jakobi Meyers has averaged 7.0 catches for 87.8 yards on 10.8 targets per game over his last four outings. He is one of the safest bets to see double-digit targets on the entire slate.

• Malik Nabers' price tag has dropped below $7,000. He has averaged 11.2 targets per game over his last five, seeing double-digit targets in 70% of his games this season. However, he hasn't shown much upside lately, failing to surpass 71 receiving yards since September.

• Trey McBride has recorded 24 receptions for 229 yards over the past two weeks, offering a high floor among tight ends on the slate. However, he has yet to score a touchdown this season and has just four total in his career.

• Brock Bowers is on pace for 119 catches and 1,252 receiving yards this season. This week, he faces a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank among the top eight in points allowed to tight ends.

• Cade Otton may be less exciting and likely less popular now that Mike Evans is fully healthy. However, he has a favorable matchup against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that allows the third-most points per game above average to opposing tight ends.

FanDuel

Now, let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the FanDuel main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj"), and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

• Will Levis carries a $6,600 price tag in a favorable matchup against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that allows a league-high 5.6 PPG above average to opposing quarterbacks. Levis has scored at least 16.2 FanDuel points in each of his last four games. While the play makes sense on paper, I have reservations about relying on players whose overall football skills I question.

• Kyler Murray has thrown for at least 260 yards in each of his last three games, including 285 yards against the Seattle Seahawks two weeks ago. He also offers more rushing upside than any other quarterback with a Top 10 PPD projection. This dual-threat capability makes him a strong option for both tournament and cash-game play.

• Jerry Jeudy has recorded 33 receptions for 614 yards and two touchdowns since Jameis Winston became the starter, averaging 127.4 receiving yards per game. Although the Pittsburgh Steelers present a bottom-five matchup for opposing wide receivers, Jeudy's affordable price and the current momentum of the Cleveland Browns' passing offense make him a compelling option.

• Jauan Jennings has been on the field for nearly every snap over the past four weeks, averaging 6.3 receptions for 70.0 yards per game.

• Jakobi Meyers has averaged 7.0 receptions for 87.8 yards on 10.8 targets per game over his last four contests, making him one of the most reliable options for double-digit targets on the slate.

• Darnell Mooney played 94% of the snaps last week, indicating improved health. If he returns to full form in Week 14, he could offer significant value against a Minnesota Vikings defense that allows the most fantasy points per game above average to opposing wide receivers.

• Cade Otton is a strong cash-game option, enabling you to roster Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara without compromising on wide receivers. The Las Vegas Raiders' defense allows the third-most points per game above average to opposing tight ends.

• David Njoku excelled late in the 2024 season with Joe Flacco at quarterback and may experience a similar surge with Jameis Winston now leading the Cleveland Browns' offense. Last week, Njoku received 17 targets and scored two touchdowns.