Last season marked a high point in Dak Prescott's career. He led the league in passing touchdowns and ranked Top 5 in almost every other passing statistic. Fantasy managers with the foresight to draft the Dallas quarterback were undoubtedly thrilled, as only Josh Allen scored more fantasy points.

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While 2023 was a stellar year, the potential for an even better performance from Prescott in 2024 is not far-fetched, especially with the possibility of a decline in the Dallas running game.

Playing at an Elite Level

Dak Prescott's finish as the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy last season likely surprised many, but he's been playing at a high level for quite some time. Here are Prescott's stats going back to 2019:

It's worth noting that injuries during the 2020 and 2022 seasons significantly hampered Prescott's ability to make a fantasy impact. However, if we delve into his per-game numbers, it becomes clear that his 2023 success was a testament to his consistent performance rather than a stroke of luck.

Over the past five seasons, Prescott has played 66 games, amassing 18,583 yards and 135 touchdown passes. Those stats average out to 281 yards and just over two touchdowns per game. Projected over a 17-game season, he would finish with 4,786 yards and 34 touchdowns, almost mirroring his 2023 season.

Notably, since 2019, even with Dak Prescott missing 17 games, only six quarterbacks have thrown for more yards, and only five have more touchdown passes. Based on Prescott's averages, if he had played 16 games per season, only Patrick Mahomes II would have more yards or touchdowns. 

A Good Receiver Makes Things Easier

Dak Prescott has significantly benefited from the talented receivers he's had throughout his career. He started with Dez Bryant, then moved on to Amari Cooper, who was eventually replaced by CeeDee Lamb. Lamb, who took over as the team's top target in 2021, has been instrumental in Prescott's success.

Since 2021, Lamb has accounted for 457 of the team's 1817 passing attempts, or a 25.1-percent target share. He's recorded 321 receptions for 4210 yards and 27 touchdowns in that span. He and Prescott have a special connection, and his 2023 season was good enough for him to finish as the top receiver in fantasy football.

Other key targets in this offense include WR Brandin Cooks and TE Jake Ferguson. Cooks started slowly in Dallas with only nine total receptions in the first five weeks but finished strong, catching 45 passes and scoring eight touchdowns in the final 12 games of the season. From Week 6 on, he was a top-25 receiver in fantasy.

Ferguson, meanwhile, broke out in 2023, finishing as a top-10 tight end. With Lamb, Cooks, and Ferguson accounting for 59% of the team's targets and scoring 25 touchdowns, Dak Prescott has all his essential pieces back in place for the 2024 season.

The Running Game

There was initial concern that Mike McCarthy's offense would focus more on the run after the departure of former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Instead, we saw an increase from 556 pass attempts in 2022 to 614 in 2023. The team's rushing attempts dropped from 531 to 468, and this number could fall even further in 2024.

With Tony Pollard now in Tennessee, all signs pointed to Dallas drafting a running back in 2024, but they did not. Instead, they re-signed Rico Dowdle and Malik Davis and brought back a familiar face, Ezekiel Elliott, after one season in New England. Elliott, once a top fantasy back, has seen his efficiency decline. 

In 2021, Elliott rushed for 1000 yards, scored ten rushing touchdowns, and was a top-10 back in fantasy. In 2022, his yards per carry plummeted to 3.8, the first time he's ever averaged below four yards in his career. Even scoring 12 touchdowns that season was not enough to get into the Top 20 for fantasy. Then, his efficiency dropped further in New England, only averaging 3.5 yards per carry.

Currently, Elliott will be the lead back, and some combination of Dowdle, Davis, and second-year back Deuce Vaughn will play a complementary role. This group is a far cry from prime Ezekiel Elliott paired with up-an-coming Tony Pollard, whose teams warranted 500 rushing attempts every season.

Expectations For Dak Prescott in 2024

In 2023, Dak Prescott played to his averages and still finished as the second-best fantasy quarterback. With a potential step back in the Dallas rushing attack, the stage is set for him to throw more passes and possibly do more in the running game in 2024.

Last year, Pollard was highly ineffective in the redzone, touching the ball 72 times but only scoring five touchdowns. On the other hand, Elliott scored five redzone touchdowns for the Patriots on just 25 touches. He is likely to fare far better than Pollard, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will hurt Prescott.

Dak Prescott threw 28 redzone touchdowns last year, only six more than the team threw in 2022 and the same amount from 2021. Now, saying Prescott could lose up to six touchdowns doesn't fit the narrative of this article unless I can tell you he can make up for that elsewhere. He can. Let's start with the touchdowns. 

While Elliott was in his prime, Prescott averaged almost five rushing touchdowns per season. Last year, he scored just two. Prescott still rushed 55 times in 2023 and averaged over four yards per carry. He hasn't lost a step, but Elliott has, and Prescott could pick up the slack near the goal line.

Now, throw in the fact that last year, this team increased its passing rate from 51 to 56 percent due to the bulk of its talent being at quarterback and wide receiver. That gap could increase further this season, and a 60-percent pass rate is not unheard of in today's NFL. 

That increase would result in an additional 35-40 attempts for Prescott, meaning more yards and, likely, more touchdowns. Instead of expecting Dak Prescott to regress, we could see him finish atop the fantasy quarterback rankings. He currently sits sixth in Footballguys Quarterback Rankings, and, at his average draft position, there might not be a better value in all fantasy football.

Dak Prescott Stats

Dak Prescott 2024 Projections

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