Cracking DraftKings: Week 16

Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

• San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins - Over/Under 45.5
• Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders - Over/Under 45.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Bills at home vs Patriots - Implied Team Total 30.5
• Bengals at home vs Browns - Implied Team Total 27
• Lions on road vs Bears - Implied Team Total 27
• Rams on road vs Jets - Implied Team Total 24.8
• Cardinals on road vs Panthers - Implied Team Total 25.5
• Falcons at home vs Giants - Implied Team Total 26

Cash Games

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen has gone absolutely nuclear. Over the past two weeks, Allen has thrown for 704 yards and 5 touchdowns and run for 150 yards and 5 touchdowns. Allen ranks second at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (25.8), 13th in passing yards per game (242.5), and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Allen leads a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play and ranks eighth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He projects to be able to do whatever he wants against an awful Patriots defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Michael Penix Jr. was selected eighth overall and is now the new Falcons starting quarterback. He's at home in a great spot against a banged-up Giants defense that ranks just 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Penix is priced at just $4,500, allowing us to pay down at quarterback this week. And he's surrounded by strong talents Drake London and Bijan Robinson.

Jalen Hurts' rushing touchdowns over his past four seasons: 10, 13, 15, and 14 already this season. Hurts provides a solid floor and ceiling combination that helps in cash. He leads an Eagles offense that ranks seventh-best in EPA/Play.

What an awesome season Sam Darnold is having. He ranks seventh in passing yards per game (252.1) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1). Darnold leads a Vikings offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, sixth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Darnold will have to chuck it as this one won't be a cakewalk on the road against a competitive Seahawks team.

Running Backs

Chase Brown's role is absolutely incredible. In six games since Zack Moss was lost for the season his averages: 25 opportunities (would lead NFL if over the full season) and 121.7 total yards per game (would rank second if over the full season). Brown has scored six touchdowns over this six-game stretch. The Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites and Brown gets a Browns defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.

James Conner ranks 14th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.9) and ninth in total yards per game (95.3). Conner has been on a tear over the past two weeks. He's totaled 260 total yards and 3 touchdowns over that stretch. The Cardinals are 4.5-point favorites and Conner gets a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. Emari Demercado and Trey Benson are both out so Conner's workload projection is even higher than usual as well.

Nick Chubb is out for the year and Jerome Ford just racked up 104 total yards and a touchdown on just nine touches last week. Ford's usage projects to spike this week and he gets to attack a Bengals defense that ranks just 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Rush EPA Allowed. Ford is a solid cash play thanks to his affordable $5,600 price tag.

De'Von Achane is at home in a possible shootout against a 49ers defense that ranks just 27th in Rush EPA Allowed. Achane's averages in ten games with Tua Tagovailos this season: 19.2 opportunities per game (would rank tenth if over the full season) and 96.1 total yards per game (would rank ninth if over the full season). Achane has scored ten touchdowns in those ten games.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram are all out. Brian Thomas Jr. was already talented but he's also transformed into Jacksonville's alpha. His targets over the past three weeks: 10, 12, and 14. He just caught 10 passes for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns last week and now gets a Raiders defense that ranks just 25th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. He should be priced at least $1,000 more than he is.

Jauan Jennings in his past four games with Brock Purdy outside of the extreme weather Bills game: 7 for 93 on 11 targets, 10 for 91 and 1 on 11 targets, 7 for 90 and 2 on 8 targets, and 2 for 31 on 9 targets. Jennings' target volume is locked in as San Francisco's clear-cut number-one receiver. Last week was a fluke as the entire game was a letdown. Jennings is priced affordably at just $5,900 in a possible shootout against an average Dolphins defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Dallas Goedert's absence increases the target projection for DeVonta Smith. He put his talent on full display last week, catching 11 of 12 targets for 109 yards and 1 touchdown. Smith's $5,800 price tag is palatable in cash against a Commanders' defense that ranks middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed (14th) and Dropback EPA Allowed (16th). His odds of being the alpha this week are higher with A.J. Brown believed to be playing at less than 100% with a knee injury he suffered last week.

Malik Nabers leads the NFL in targets per game (11.7) yet is priced at just $6,100 on a full PPR site. He's in a good spot in Atlanta's dome where there are no weather concerns against a Falcons defense that ranks just 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

All signs point to this being the last season Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams ever play together and they're acting like it, getting in as many connections as they can. Adams targets in his last six games: 11, 13, 7, 12, 11, and 12. Adams has four touchdowns over his past three games and has put up 109 and 198 receiving yards over the past two weeks, respectively. He's at home this week in a matchup we don't have to avoid against a Rams defense that ranks middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed (15th).

Xavier Legette is out this week. Jalen Coker projects as a strong cash play if he's active. He's listed a questionable so his status must be monitored Sunday morning. Coker returned last week and played on 87% of the offensive snaps, catching 4 of 6 targets for 110 yards and 1 touchdown. He's priced at just $4,200 and is at home against a Cardinals defense that ranks just 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram are all out. Parker Washington is now essentially a full-time player. His snap percentages over the past three games: 80%, 75%, and 86%. Washington saw six targets last week and just three games ago put up 103 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 catches and 12 targets. He's a cheap option priced at just $4,300 against a Raiders defense that ranks just 25th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Without Evan Engram last week, Brenton Strange played on 82% of the offensive snaps and caught 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards. He's priced at just $3,500 against a Raiders defense that ranks just 25th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Punting tight end has long been the best strategy in cash. Play Strange in cash.

Team Defenses

The Patriots offense only ranks 26th in EPA/Play. The Bills are 14.5-point home favorites and the Patriots have a lowly 16 point Implied Team Total.

The Rams have a decently affordable price tag and they are three-point favorites.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ranks first in passing yards per game (284.1) and first in pass touchdowns (2.6). He leads a Bengals offense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play, first in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He remains plenty motivated with playoffs still an option and plays at home against a Browns defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Matthew Stafford ranks ninth in passing yards per game (247.4) and 14th in pass touchdowns per game (1.4). He leads a Rams offense that ranks 13th in EPA/Play. The Rams are in the thick of a playoff battle and get to face a bad Jets defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Mac Jones of all people just threw for 294 yards and 2 touchdowns against this defense last week.

Brock Purdy and the 49ers have had an awful four-game stretch. However, hidden within that stretch is a 325-yard and 2-touchdown game just two weeks ago at home against the Bears. Purdy still ranks 12th in passing yards per game (244.2) and is playing in a possible shootout against an average Dolphins defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed. The 49ers are without running backs Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, Elijah Mitchell, and Isaac Guerendo so San Francisco's playoff hopes fall squarely on Purdy's shoulders.

Kyler Murray has been very up and down this season but we only need a one-week spike and this is a spot where that can occur against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Advanced statistics of the Cardinals' offense paint a picture of where a ceiling game could happen here. Arizona's offense ranks 12th in EPA/Play, seventh in EDPF, and 11th in PROE.

Anthony Richardson offers a high weekly ceiling thanks to his elite athleticism and rushing ability. Richardson has run for 429 yards and 5 touchdowns in just ten games this season. Richardson is at home against a Titans defense that ranks middle-of-the-pack in both EPA/Play Allowed (16th) and Dropback EPA Allowed (19th). He makes sense priced affordably at just $5,400.

Running Backs

David Montgomery's injury is massive. Jahmyr Gibbs already ranks seventh in total yards per game (103) and third in touchdowns (14) despite ranking just 24th in opportunities per game (16.8). Gibbs' projected increased usage can break fantasy football. And he just so happens to be in a dream matchup against a bad Bears defense that ranks 28th in Rush EPA Allowed. The Lions are 6.5-point favorites. Yes, Gibbs will be highly owned but he's absolutely worth it. Play him and then build a unique lineup around him.

The installment of Michael Penix Jr. as the starting quarterback projects to shoot life into the Falcons offense. That's exciting because Bijan Robinson is in a great spot at home against a banged-up Giants defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed. The Falcons are 10.5-point favorites. Robinson ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21.2) and third in total yards per game (108.1).

Kyren Williams ranks third in opportunities per game (22.6), 14th in total yards per game (91.4), and third in touchdowns (14). The Rams are three-point favorites and Williams has a favorable matchup against a Jets defense that ranks just 23rd in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. The masses don't believe Williams offers a high ceiling. Take advantage of that.

Saquon Barkley hasn't scored a touchdown in his last two games and totaled just 74 yards last week. Recency bias will cause Barkley's ownership levels to take a dip. Take advantage. Barkley leads the NFL in opportunities per game (23.2) and ranks second in total yards per game (140.3) and seventh in touchdowns (13). Barkley just dominated the Commanders five games ago, totaling 198 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Chuba Hubbard was popular last week with Jonathan Brooks on the shelf. He had a disappointing game. Look for the masses to look elsewhere. Hubbard ranks ninth in opportunities per game (19.6) and gets to play at home against a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed.

Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball at the one-yard line last week, resulting in a touchback, loss of possession, and ultimately, a loss to the Denver Broncos. Look past the embarrassing decision as that is just noise when analyzing this upcoming week. The Colts are 4.5-point home favorites and Taylor ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21.2) and 12th in total yards per game (93.9).

Wide Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase is currently the triple crown winner. He leads the NFL in receptions (102), receiving yards (1,413), and receiving touchdowns (15). Chase is one of the most elite wide receiver talents the NFL has ever seen. He plays on a Bengals offense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play, first in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Cincinnati remains plenty motivated with playoffs still an option and Chase plays at home against a Browns defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Last Thursday night's Rams 49ers game was awful. Both offenses were stuck in the mud. Matthew Stafford thre for just 160 yards. Puka Nacua still caught 7 of 8 targets for 97 yards. He had 61% of Stafford's passing yards. Nacua is that good. His averages over his past six games: 11 targets, 8.2 receptions, 108.8 receiving yards, 114.5 total yards, and 0.67 touchdowns. The Rams are in the thick of a playoff battle and get to face a bad Jets defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Mac Jones of all people just threw for 294 yards and 2 touchdowns against this defense last week.

Justin Jefferson's past two-week totals: 21 targets, 14 receptions, 205 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. Jefferson could go a bit overlooked as users feel like they already missed the spike week. His upside is about as high as any receiver against a middle-of-the-pack Seahawks pass defense (16th in Dropback EPA Allowed).

Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks second in receptions (95), fourth in receiving yards (1,056), and third in receiving touchdowns (10). He has wide receiver one on the week upside against a Bears defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. Chicago's defense has come apart at the seams.

Terry McLaurin had just one reception on two targets for 10 yards against the Eagles about a month ago in prime time. Much was made about his matchup with Quinyon Mitchell and how he was shut down by the rookie. Despite McLaurin's amazing season, look for him to be low-owned here as the masses overemphasize a minuscule one-week sample. The NFL is highly variant from week to week, especially when it comes to pass catchers and their volume and production. McLaurin is at home and ranks seventh in receiving yards (969) and second in receiving touchdowns (11). Take advantage of the overreaction.

Jaylen Waddle is doubtful and Tyreek Hill has seen 30 targets over the past three weeks. Hill finally went over 100 yards and 1 touchdown two weeks ago and now plays at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week.

Tee Higgins is a red zone weapon thanks to his size advantage. He has six touchdowns in his past seven games and is playing at home against a Browns defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

The installment of Michael Penix Jr. as the starting quarterback projects as an upgrade for Drake London. Atlanta had gotten conservative on offense with the fading Kirk Cousins. Look for more aggressiveness and Londin is at home in a great spot against a banged-up Giants defense that ranks just 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Cooper Kupp didn't catch a pass last week. Recency bias will drive his ownership down but this is a favorable spot for Kupp and the entire Rams passing offense against a bad Jets defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Mac Jones of all people just threw for 294 yards and 2 touchdowns against this defense last week.

Deebo Samuel Sr. is "cooked" is the full-on narrative right now. I'm not saying I disagree but a player of Samuel's caliber, even at half of the player he once was, can still pop up for a random spike week or two. Samuel will be low-owned, is priced modestly at $5,200, and projects to be more involved in the backfield with Isaac Guerendo out this week. This is a possible shootout spot against an average Dolphins defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed. 

Tight Ends

Trey McBride ranks at the tight end position: third in targets (109), second in receptions (89), and second in receiving yards (938). McBride's targets over the past four weeks: 15, 12, 14, and 10. Kyler Murray tweeted this week is going to get McBride his first touchdown reception this season soon. This is a smash spot against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jaylen Waddle is doubtful and Jonnu Smith has already seen 11 targets in three of his past four games. Smith's ranks at the tight end position: fourth in targets (87), fourth in receptions (70), fourth in receiving yards (740), and fourth in touchdown receptions (6). He projects for a strong outing once again at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week.

George Kittle has high upside in this possible shootout spot against an average Dolphins defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed. His ranks at the tight end position: eighth in targets (73), sixth in receptions (60), third in receiving yards (861), and first in receiving touchdowns (8).

Sam Darnold ranks seventh in passing yards per game (252.1) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1). Darnold leads a Vikings offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, sixth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). T.J. Hockenson benefits from playing in this great passing offense and is a solid player himself. He has a decent price tag ($4,800) for a player who could pop up for over 100 receiving yards, something he's already done once in just seven games so far this season.

Team Defenses

The Giants offense is a dumpster fire. New York has a very low 15.5-point Implied Team Total this week. Drew Lock has thrown zero touchdowns and two interceptions, been sacked nine times, and fumbled three times in just four appearances this season.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson gets the start for Cleveland this week. He has thrown zero touchdowns and three interceptions this season. 

Caleb Williams has been sacked 58 times this season. That is the most in the NFL by 13. The Lions are 6.5-point favorites.

Key Injuries

• David Montgomery OUT
  • Upgrade Jahmyr Gibbs
• Jaylen Waddle Doubtful
  • Upgrade Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, De'Von Achane, and Malik Washington
• Isaac Guerendo OUT
  • Upgrade Patrick Taylor Jr.
• Nick Chubb OUT
  • Upgrade Jerome Ford
• Austin Ekeler OUT
  • Upgrade Brian Robinson Jr
• Jonathan Brooks and Miles Sanders both OUT
  • Upgrade Chuba Hubbard
• Dallas Goedert OUT
  • Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
• Evan Engram OUT
  • Upgrade Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Brenton Strange
• Xavier Legette OUT
  • Upgrade Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker, and David Moore
• Alec Pierce OUT
  • Upgrade Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr, and Adonai Mitchell
• Noah Brown OUT
  • Upgrade Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, and Luke McCaffrey
• Emari Demercado and Trey Benson both OUT
  • Upgrade James Conner
• Theo Johnson OUT
  • Upgrade Daniel Bellinger
• Questionable Players
  • Jalen Coker
  • David Moore

Favorite Tournament Stacks

• Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Chase Brown
• Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown
• Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins
• Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams
• Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle
• Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and Deebo Samuel Sr.
• Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, and James Conner

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• James Conner
• Brenton Strange

Flag Plant Tournament Play

• Jahmyr Gibbs (Diversify your lineup around Gibbs)
• Trey McBride