Cracking DraftKings: Week 15

Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

• Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 54.5
• Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans - Over/Under 47.5
• Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns - Over/Under 45.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Ravens on road vs Giants - Implied Team Total 29
• Bengals on road vs Titans - Implied Team Total 26
• Commanders on road vs Saints - Implied Team Total 25.3

Cash Games

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson leads all quarterbacks in DraftKings fantasy points per game (26), ranks ninth in passing yards per game (253.1), ranks second in pass touchdowns per game (2.2), and leads a Ravens offense that ranks second in EPA/Play. He gets to attack a putrid Giants team and defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jayden Daniels ranks sixth at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (20.8) and leads a Commanders offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play. Daniels provides a solid floor-and-ceiling combination thanks to his dual-threat skillset that includes 590 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. He gets a Saints defense that ranks just 21st in EPA/Play Allowed.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ranks third in opportunities per game (23.4), first in total yards per game (145.4), and fourth in total touchdowns (13). The Eagles are 5.5-point home favorites.

Chase Brown's averages in five games without Zack Moss: 24.4 opportunities per game (would rank second if over the full season) and 123.4 total yards per game (would rank second if over the full season). He has scored a touchdown in four of five games without Moss as well. The Bengals are 4.5-point favorites against an average Titans defense.

The absence of Jonathan Brooks puts Chuba Hubbard immediately back into a workhorse role and Hubbard already ranks ninth in opportunities per game (20). The Panthers are 2.5-point home favorites against a Cowboys defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Joe Mixon leads the NFL in opportunities per game (24.5), ranks third in total yards per game (113.1), and ranks sixth in total touchdowns (12). Dolphins at Texans has the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate and the matchup is decent as the Dolphins rank 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 16th in Rush EPA Allowed.

De'Von Achane's averages in Tua Tagovailoa's nine starts: 19.3 opportunities per game (would rank 13th if over the full season), 6.6 targets per game, and 98.3 total yards per game (would rank tenth if over the full season). Dolphins at Texans has the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate and Achane's dual-threat ceiling could skyrocket if this game does in fact shootout.

Rico Dowdle's averages over the past three weeks since Dallas made him their workhorse: 22.3 opportunities per (would rank fourth if over the full season) and 120.7 total yards per (would rank second if over the full season). Dowdle is in a great spot against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase is the best receiver in football this season. He's currently taking home the Triple Crown as he leads the NFL in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,319), and receiving touchdowns (15). He's the best receiver play of the week.

Adam Thielen returned three weeks ago and after one game shaking off the rust has gone bonkers over the past two games going 8 for 99 and 1 on 10 targets and 9 for 102 on 11 targets. Bryce Young is playing good football and Thielen is his clear number one option. Despite being 34 years old, Thielen is well-rested thanks to his long-term absence due to injury. Priced at just $5,400, Thielen is a cash game lock against an average Cowboys defense.

Courtland Sutton's last six games: 8 for 100 on 11 targets, 7 for 122 on 10 targets, 6 for 70 and 1 touchdown on 9 targets, 7 for 78 on 8 targets, 8 for 97 and 2 touchdowns on 10 targets, and 6 for 102 on 9 targets. Sutton is on a heater and he's at home in this one against an average Colts pass defense. He's a solid cash play because he's the clear-cut number-one option for Rookie of the Year candidate, Bo Nix.

Cedric Tillman remains out with a concussion and David Njoku is questionable with a hamstring injury suffered last week. Njoku didn't practice all week and will likely be less than 100% even if he does suit up. Jerry Jeudy has averaged 9.2 targets per game in Jameis Winston's six starts, which would rank ninth in the NFL if over the full season. Jeudy is playing at home, is priced affordably at $6,200, and should be needed in a competitive game against Kansas City.

Evan Engram is out for the season joining Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis on the bench. Parker Washington over his past two weeks: 80% and 75% of the offensive snaps. Washington is Jacksonville's clear number-two option in the passing game now with Engram out. Washington saw just two targets last week but he caught 6 of 12 targets for 103 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 13. He's priced at just $4,100 at home while Brian Thomas Jr. projects to see more of Ahmad Gardner. Washington is a solid salary saver in cash.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride's target totals over the past three weeks have been insane for a tight end: 15, 12, and 14. He's at home against a Patriots defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. Paying up at tight end in cash is historically not the best move to make but this calls for an exception to the rule if you can find the salary to do so.

Jonnu Smith didn't make his first catch until overtime and still walked away with 3 for 44 and the game-winning touchdown. His target totals in the three games before that: 8, 11, and 11. Smith's ranks at the tight end position this season: seventh in targets (76), fourth in receptions (61), fourth in receiving yards (692), and fourth in touchdowns (5). Dolphins at Texans has the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate and could turn into a shootout quickly.

Theo Johnson is out for the season. In the Giants' first game without him last week, Daniel Bellinger took his place as the Giants' starting tight end. Bellinger played on 78% of the offensive snaps and caught 5 of 7 targets for 45 yards. The Ravens have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (10.6) this season. Bellinger is priced at just $2,800 and allows you to lock in studs at the more important positions.

Team Defenses

The Broncos are 4.5-point home favorites. Anthony Richardson has thrown just seven touchdown passes compared to nine interceptions.

The Bengals are 4.5-point favorites despite playing in Tennessee. Will Levis has taken the fifth most sacks (39) despite playing in only 10 games. He's thrown nine interceptions and fumbled seven times this season.

The Jets are affordably priced right at that comfortable $3,000 mark and get to take on Mac Jones who will be without Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis. Jones has thrown just two touchdowns compared to five interceptions this season.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Bills at Lions has an incredibly high 54.5-point Over/Under. Josh Allen ranks second at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (24.4) and just put up eye-popping numbers last week, throwing for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns and adding 82 yards and 3 more touchdowns on the ground. The Rams pushed the Bills last week, and the Lions project to strongly push the Bills again this week. Allen leads the NFL's best offense according to EPA/Play. He's the QB1 this week.

Joe Burrow is the league's MVP if the Bengals had a winning record. He's playing out of his mind. Burrow leads the NFL in both passing yards per game (285.1) and pass touchdowns per game (2.5). The Bengals offense ranks fourth in EPA/Play and leads the NFL in both Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). This is a matchup that doesn't intimidate against an average Titans defense that ranks 16th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde for years now. It's hard to tell what we'll be getting from them on a weekly basis. Yet, there are spike weeks even if they're tough to predict. This sets up well for a spike week at home against a Patriots defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. Murray leads a Cardinals defense that ranks 14th in EPA/Play, seventh in EDPF, and 11th in PROE.

Drake Maye is an exciting dual-threat. He's run for 345 yards and 1 touchdown in just nine games and eight starts. He has a high ceiling in this spot against a bad Cardinals defense that ranks just 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jameis Winston's averages in his six starts: 315.3 passing yards per (leads NFL) and 2 pass touchdowns per (ranks fifth). Winston quarterbacks a Browns offense that ranks second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and fourth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He's at home in a contest with a decent Over/Under (45.5) against a Chiefs defense that ranks middle of the pack in Dropback EPA Allowed (15th). The upside is there if Patrick Mahomes II can push him on the other side.

Dolphins at Texans has the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate. C.J. Stroud hasn't lived up to expectations this season and is coming off the bye. He'll be low-owned for both of those reasons. That's exciting because this game has shootout potential with Tua Tagovailoa projected to push Stroud on the other side. Stroud is at home and has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tua Tagovailoa is an intriguing tournament play in this one as well. He'll be low-owned due to the matchup being tough on paper against a Texans defense that leads the NFL in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Tagovailoa has been solid this season. He ranks second in passing yards per game (272.8) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9). The ceiling is there with C.J. Stroud potentially pushing him on the other side and shooting this game total up.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry's ceiling is through the roof in this one against the free-falling 2-11 Giants. New York's offense is putrid, which should increase Henry's chances and allow him to play with a lead (Ravens are 14.5-point favorites). And the matchup is juicy against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed over the past six weeks. Their best defensive player, Dexter Lawrence II, is out due to injury.

Brian Robinson Jr has been banged up this season and he just received the benefit of the bye week to rest his body. He should be fresh in this one against a Saints defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed. Austin Ekeler is out due to injury and Robinson turned 17 touches into 109 total yards and a touchdown in Week 13 without Ekeler. The Commanders are seven-point favorites.

Bills at Lions has an incredibly high 54.5-point Over/Under. This game shooting out would increase the value of all players involved, especially an extreme talent like Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs ranks eighth in total yards per game (102.2) and sixth in total touchdowns (12).

James Conner is the kind of "boring" player that goes overlooked in tournaments. Should that be the case this week? Conner is at home against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Patriots' defense ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed. And Conner has been solid all season. He ranks 14th in opportunities per game (18.8) and 12th in total yards per game (92). The Cardinals are 4.5-point favorites and Emari Demercado, who has shared snaps with Conner in every game this season, is out this week.

This will be Isiah Pacheco's third game back from injury, which is the time we should start projecting him to be fantasy-relevant again. That's exciting because Pacheco already saw 18 opportunities last week. We want to get out in front of our competition and Pacheco allows us to do just that this week against a Browns defense that ranks 25th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. Once he hits, everyone will be back on board. We want to be the first to a monster game at low ownership.

Rhamondre Stevenson hasn't had a very good season. Let's tell it like it is. But he does rank 17th in opportunities per game and has a great matchup against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed. He'll be extremely low-owned and does offer dual-threat ability paired with the exciting Drake Maye.

Wide Receivers

The Lions offense ranks third in EPA/Play and can find success in versatile ways. This is part of the reason why Amon-Ra St. Brown has been quiet at times this season but it's also why he's posted games of 11 for 119 on 18 targets and 11 for 161 and 2 touchdowns on 11 targets. St. Brown can dominate when needed and this projects as one of those weeks. Bills at Lions has an incredibly high 54.5-point Over/Under. With Josh Allen and company loading up the scoreboard on the other side, St. Brown is an elite tournament play with a sky-high ceiling against a Bills defense that ranks just 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Dolphins at Texans has the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate. This game has shootout potential which could increase Nico Collins' already massive upside. Collins leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (104). He's at home and has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Noah Brown and pass-catching running back Austin Ekeler are both out, increasing Terry McLaurin's already large projected target share. McLaurin has a 21% target share on the year and now his teammates who rank third and fourth on the team in targets are on the sideline. McLaurin has a fun upside scenario in this one in the dome against a Saints defense that ranks just 21st in EPA/Play Allowed.

Brian Thomas Jr. is priced at just $5,800. Evan Engram is out for the season joining Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis on the bench. Thomas is the clear alpha receiver in Jacksonville right now. He has seen target totals of 10 and 12 over his past two games. He entered the NFL as an elite talent and has lived up to the high expectations set for him as a rookie. Even if he sees a lot of Ahmad Sauce Gardner, Thomas is the better player. Point blank period.

Bills at Lions has an incredibly high 54.5-point Over/Under. Josh Allen threw for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns last week while getting pushed by the Rams. The great news is the Lions also project to push the Bills and Allen this week. Allen leads the NFL's best offense according to EPA/Play and they should find plenty of success in this one as well. That boosts the value and projected volume for both Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir. Cooper saw 14 targets last week and Shakir has seen seven or more targets in seven straight contests. He went for 100+ and a touchdown last week.

Lamar Jackson ranks ninth in passing yards per game (253.1), ranks second in pass touchdowns per game (2.2), and leads a Ravens offense that ranks second in EPA/Play. He gets to attack a putrid Giants team and defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. The Ravens are going to be able to do whatever they want in this one on offense. That likely means a huge Derrick Henry game but everyone knows this, which will keep Zay Flowers' ownership low. There is certainly a world where Flowers goes nuclear and is the major beneficiary of this awesome spot.

Ja'Marr Chase is the best receiver in football this season. He's currently taking home the Triple Crown as he leads the NFL in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,319), and receiving touchdowns (15). He just went nuclear again in primetime last week. Meanwhile, Tee Higgins put up an absolute dud. These are the moments we want to pounce in tournaments as we know the weekly variance in football and the NFL is extremely high, especially at the wide receiver position. Prior to last week Higgins had caught a touchdown in three straight weeks and seen 31 targets over that span.

Calvin Ridley has a wide range of outcomes because his quarterback, Will Levis, has a wide range of outcomes. But Ridley saw 12 targets last week, the Titans project to be playing from behind in this one, and Ridley is talented enough to dominate this putrid Bengals defense that ranks just 31st in REPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde for years now. It's hard to tell what we'll be getting from them on a weekly basis. Yet, there are spike weeks even if they're tough to predict. This sets up well for a spike week at home against a Patriots defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. If we get good Murray that could create a trickle-down effect which allows us to see Marvin Harrison Jr.'s talent on display. Harrison Jr. is more than capable of putting up a big stat line and he could do just that at low ownership.

Dolphins at Texans has the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the main slate. Tank Dell hasn't lived up to expectations this season and is coming off the bye. He'll be low-owned for both of those reasons. That's exciting because this game has shootout potential with Tua Tagovailoa projected to push the Texans on the other side. Dell is at home and has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. A reason for optimism? Dell has averaged 24 and 23 yards per reception in his past two games and this projects as a game where multiple big plays will occur.

Jameson Williams' targets over his past three games: 7, 7, and 8. Williams possesses game-breaking ability and is seeing consistent volume as of late? Ya, that will play. Williams looks like a fun tournament play with big-play potential in the game with the highest Over/Under (54.5) of the week against a Bills defense that ranks just 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce has been a bit quiet of late but we know a big game could pop up for Patrick Mahomes II' number-one target at any moment. Kelce just saw 13 targets two weeks ago and has a favorable matchup against a Browns defense that ranks just 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed and has given up the ninth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.1).

Lamar Jackson ranks ninth in passing yards per game (253.1), ranks second in pass touchdowns per game (2.2), and leads a Ravens offense that ranks second in EPA/Play. He gets to attack a putrid Giants team and defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. The Ravens are going to be able to do whatever they want in this one on offense. Mark Andrews ranks tied for second at the tight end position in touchdown receptions (7) and offers multi-touchdown upside here.

Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in targets (83), receptions (58), and receiving yards (610). He's in a great spot against a bad Cardinals defense that ranks just 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. As Drake Maye's number one option, Henry offers more upside this week than most think.

Noah Brown and pass-catching running back Austin Ekeler are both out. They rank third and fourth on the team in targets, respectively. Zach Ertz now sits comfortably at number two in the Commanders' target pecking order and he's only seen seven fewer targets than Terry McLaurin in the same number of games. This could be the week of the "boring" tight end winning people tournaments because, like Hunter Henry, Ertz offers more upside than most think against a Saints defense that ranks just 21st in EPA/Play Allowed.

Bills at Lions has an incredibly high 54.5-point Over/Under. The Lions offense ranks third in EPA/Play and can find success in versatile ways. This game is almost certain to shoot out and if it does, Sam LaPorta priced at just $4,400 is intriguing in tournaments because he's a good player, in a good offense, playing in a good fantasy game environment at home.

Team Defenses

Derek Carr won't play. Jake Haener will be making his first career start with an offensive roster devoid of receiving talent around him. Meanwhile, Dan Quinn has his defensive unit playing good football and Marcus Lattimore projects to make his Commanders' debut.

Tommy Devito took 37 sacks in nine games last season and was sacked four times in his only start this year. The Ravens D/ST projects to load up on sacks and turnovers in this one. They're 14.5-point favorites.

Key Injuries

• Austin Ekeler OUT
  • Upgrade Brian Robinson Jr
• Jonathan Brooks OUT
  • Upgrade Chuba Hubbard
• George Pickens OUT
  • Upgrade Eagles D/ST, Pat Freiermuth, and Mike Williams
• Cedric Tillman OUT and David Njoku Questionable
  • Upgrade Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore
• Derek Carr OUT
  • Upgrade Commanders D/ST and Brian Robinson Jr
• Taysom Hill OUT
  • Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller
• Dallas Goedert OUT
  • Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
• Evan Engram OUT
  • Upgrade Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Brenton Strange
• Noah Brown OUT
  • Upgrade Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, and Luke McCaffrey
• Will Dissly OUT
  • Upgrade Stone Smartt
• Emari Demercado OUT
  • Upgrade James Conner
• Theo Johnson OUT
  • Upgrade Daniel Bellinger
• Questionable Players
  • David Njoku
  • Ladd McConkey
  • Josh Downs
  • Dalton Kincaid
  • Sterling Shepard

Favorite Tournament Stacks

• Josh Allen, Amari Cooper, and Khalil Shakir
  • Runback Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, or Jameson Williams
• Kyler Murray and Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr..
  • Runback Options: Hunter Henry or Rhamondre Stevenson
• C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins
  • Runback Options: De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, or Jonnu Smith

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Chuba Hubbard
• Adam Thielen
• Jerry Jeudy

Flag Plant Tournament Play

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Derrick Henry (Do not worry about the ownership. Diversify your lineup in other ways around Henry)