Cracking DraftKings: Week 14

Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

• Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 49.5
• Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals - Over/Under 44.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Eagles at home vs Panthers - Implied Team Total 29
• Buccaneers at home vs Raiders - Implied Team Total 26.8
• Dolphins at home vs Jets - Implied Team Total 26
• Vikings at home vs Falcons - Implied Team Total 25.5
• 49ers at home vs Bears - Implied Team Total 24

Cash Games

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ranks fifth in DraftKings points per game (21.8) at the quarterback position and eighth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7). He leads a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play and tenth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). This contest has the second-highest Over/Under (49.5) of the week.

Jameis Winston just threw for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns in prime time. His averages in his five starts: 336 passing yards per (would leads the NFL) and 2 pass touchdowns per (would rank fourth). The Browns offense ranks second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and fourth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE).

Geno Smith ranks third in passing yards per game (270.1) and leads a Seahawks offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Smith has a favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Baker Mayfield continues to have an outstanding season. He ranks seventh in passing yards per game (252.8) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.1). He leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks tenth in EPA/Play, 13th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Mayfield is at home in a good spot against a Raiders defense that ranks just 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley is possibly the most obvious cash play of all time this week. Barkley ranks third in opportunities per game (23.6), first in total yards per game (147.2), and second in total touchdowns (13). The Eagles are 13.5-point home favorites and Barkley gets a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.

Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are both out, putting the athletic and fast Isaac Guerendo in line to start at home against a Bears defense that ranks 28th in Rush EPA Allowed. The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites and Guerendo already has games with rushing yards of 99 and 85 in limited action.

With Taysom Hill lost for the season last week, the Saints have little offensive talent left outside of Alvin Kamara. He already ranks second in opportunities per game (23.8) and fourth in total yards per game (112). He projects to receive a significant workload in an awesome matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Bucky Irving got in a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. He projects to be active but his status needs be monitored Sunday morning. Luckily, Tampa Bay plays in the early window so his status will be known before the slate begins. If active, Irving is a strong play. Irving has scored a touchdown in three straight games and here are his averages over that stretch: 20.7 opportunities per (would rank ninth if over full season) and 141.3 total yards per (would rank second if over full season).

The Titans are 3.5-point home favorites and Tony Pollard gets to attack a bad Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Rush EPA Allowed. Pollard ranks ninth in opportunities per game (20.3).

Breece Hall gutted through a knee injury last week but it appears that won't be the case on Sunday as he's listed as doubtful. Braelon Allen projects to be a workhorse as fellow rookie Isaiah Davis has just nine touches this season and no other running back has seen the ball. Allen provides salary savings at $5,000 and the matchup is decent against a Dolphins defense that ranks middle of the pack in Rush EPA Allowed (16th).

Wide Receivers

In Mike Evans' second game back from injury he returned to a full-time role and dominated, catching 8 of 12 targets for 118 yards and 1 touchdown. He projects to continue to eat without Chris Godwin. Evans is at home in a good spot against a Raiders defense that ranks just 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jerry Jeudy played his best game as a pro and put his talent on full display last week on Monday Night Football, catching 9 of 13 targets for 235 yards and 1 touchdown. Jeudy's averages in Jameis Winston's five starts this season: 9.8 targets (would rank fourth if over full season) and 122.8 receiving yards (would lead the NFL if over full season).

Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are both out for the season. Last week, in Parker Washington's first game operating as an outside receiver in place of Davis, he played on a season-high 80% of offensive snaps and set career highs in targets (12), receptions (6), and receiving yards (103). Washington is priced at just $4,400.

George Pickens is listed as questionable due to a hamstring injury. He projects to be active but his status needs to be monitored Sunday morning. Luckily, Pittsburgh plays in the early window so his status will be known before the slate begins. If active, Pickens is in a good spot at home against a Browns defense that only ranks 25th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Pickens is averaging 81.2 receiving yards per game (would rank sixth in over full season) in Russell Wilson's six starts.

Jakobi Meyers is a good player and is in a favorable spot against Tampa Bay's pass funnel defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Meyers' averages in his seven games this season without Davante Adams: 9.9 targets per (would rank fourth if over full season) and 87.3 receiving yards per (would rank fourth if over full season).

Drake London and Kirk Cousins are a great match. Cousins struggles to throw downfield but he's still an accurate mid-range passer and that's where Atlanta has utilized London frequently this season. London saw 16 targets last week and has seen 36 targets over the past three games. Look for London to rack up mid-range receptions against this tough Vikings defense. 

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers is an absolute fantasy football king. In the entire NFL wide receivers included he ranks seventh in targets per game (9.4), fourth in receptions per game (7), and tenth in receiving yards per game (73.7). He's in a great spot against Tampa Bay's pass funnel defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. The sharp strategy in cash is typically to pay down at tight end but I'd encourage you to work on fitting Bowers into your lineup this week.

Trey McBride is at home this week and is Kyler Murray's clear-cut number-one option. Over the past two games, McBride has put up extreme volume seeing a total of 27 targets, catching 24 passes, and racking up 229 receiving yards over that span.

Jonnu Smith has become Tua Tagovailoa's number-one option in the passing game, something I never could've imagined. Over the past two games, Smith has seen 22 targets, caught 19 balls, and put up 200 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. He's at home in a favorable spot against a free-falling Jets team.

David Njoku saw an insane 17 targets last week. His quarterback threw for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Browns offense ranks second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and fourth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE).

Team Defenses

The Titans are affordable enough to gamble on despite their defense being banged up. They're 3.5-point home favorites against the immobile Mac Jones.

The Eagles defense ranks sixth-best in EPA/Play Allowed. They're 13.5-point home favorites against one of the least talented offenses in the NFL.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts is leverage on possibly the most obvious play of all time, Saquon Barkley. Hurts is an elite dual-threat who ranks second in the NFL in rush touchdowns (12) in addition to his passing success. Like Barkley, Hurts also finds himself in an elite matchup at home against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

The Jets have an average defense and have lost eight of their last nine games. They have nothing to play for and could be a team that quits on their interim head coach, especially since Ahmad Gardner is listed as doubtful. Tua Tagovailoa is at home against this squad with questionable motivation. He ranks fourth in passing yards per game (265.6) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9).

Sam Darnold ranks fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and leads a Vikings offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play, sixth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Despite a successful season, Darnold has posted few spike weeks. That will keep his ownership down in a possible eruption spot at home in the dome against a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Aidan O'Connell isn't a dynamic playmaker by any means but he can stand in the pocket and deliver the ball to playmakers around him. He's in a phenomenal spot to do just that against Tampa Bay's pass funnel defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. O'Connell just threw for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns last week on the road against a better Chiefs' pass defense.

Brock Purdy threw for just 129 yards in Week 11, missed Week 12 with a shoulder injury, and then threw for only 94 yards in the snow in Buffalo in Week 13. He will be very low-owned due to his, and the 49ers, recent struggles. That's intriguing in tournaments since Purdy has had a strong fantasy season. He ranks eighth in DraftKings points per game (18.8) at the quarterback position, ranks 13th in passing yards per game (246.1), and has added 271 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground.

Running Backs

The Jets have an average defense and have lost eight of their last nine games. They have nothing to play for and could be a team that quits on their interim head coach. De'Von Achane has an elite ceiling at home against a Jets defense that already ranks 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed. Achane's averages in Tua Tagovailoa's eight starts this season: 19 opportunities per (ranks 13th) and 102 total yards per (ranks 9th). Achane's ten touchdowns on the year rank ninth-most as well.

James Cook is a talented player who has been able to efficiently produce this season. He ranks 23rd in opportunities per game (16.6) but fourth in touchdowns (12). He's playing in a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play and gets a Rams defense that ranks 21st in Rush EPA Allowed. This contest has the second-highest Over/Under (49.5) of the week.

Aaron Jones has fumbled four times over the past three games and only touched the ball eight times last week. Recency bias will keep his ownership levels down. That's exciting. Jones still ranks 14th in opportunities per game (18.8) and tenth in total yards per game (92.6). The Vikings are 4.5-point home favorites against a Falcons defense that ranks just 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.

The Giants are a mess right now but they're at home and, in many ways, the Saints are banged up and struggling as well. The Giants are 4.5-point underdogs but there is some hope they can win this game or at least keep it close. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has run for over 100 yards three times this season. One of those instances was in a win and another was in the overtime loss to the Panthers. Tracy is talented and gets a Saints defense that ranks just 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed. Over his past five games, he's averaging 91.6 total yards per contest, which would rank 12th most if over the full season.

Bijan Robinson's tough matchup against a Vikings defense that leads the NFL in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed will keep his ownership low. That puts him in play as he ranks eighth in opportunities per game (20.8) and fifth in total yards per game (106.4). Robinson has multiple paths to get there. He touched the ball 32 times last week and has seen six or more targets in three of his past five games.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson hasn't caught a touchdown in six straight games and hasn't gone over 100 receiving yards in four straight contests. He's an elite player that makes for a smart tournament process play as his slow production over the past month will naturally decrease his ownership levels on Sunday due to recency bias. We know he can go nuclear at any given moment and this looks like a spot gift-wrapped for it to happen. Jefferson is at home in the dome against a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

A.J. Brown is leverage on possibly the most obvious play of all time, Saquon Barkley. Brown is one of the most talented receivers in the game and it should surprise no one if he goes bonker at home against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Brown ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards per game (88.1).

The Jets have an average defense and have lost eight of their last nine games. They have nothing to play for and could be a team that quits on their interim head coach, especially since Ahmad Gardner is listed as doubtful. Despite a down season, Tyreek Hill still leads the Dolphins in targets (83) and receiving yards (654). He's at home in this one and offers an elite ceiling, making him a solid tournament play at projected neutered ownership levels.

Geno Smith ranks third in passing yards per game (270.1) and leads a Seahawks offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf have favorable matchups against a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Both are talented players capable of producing spike weeks at any moment and they're playing in a dome so there are no weather concerns.

Take advantage of recency bias here. Prior to last week in the snow and Week 12 without Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings balled out in Weeks 10 and 11, totaling 22 targets, 17 receptions, 184 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown over that two-game stretch. He projects to see numerous targets at home in this competitive matchup as the 49ers will be without Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, two major receiving weapons.

DeVonta Smith is a fantastic tournament play because not only is he tournament leverage off of Saquon Barkley, but he'll also be low-owned due to recency bias since he's missed the past two games due to injury. In fact, he'll be so low owned he can be played in the lineup with Barkley. Dallas Goedert is out and Smith is tied with A.J. Brown for the team lead in touchdown receptions (4).

This projects as a Justin Jefferson week but if you want to bet on his cold streak continuing, then Jordan Addison could pop off at home in the dome against a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. Addison is leverage off of Jefferson and just caught 8 of 9 targets for 162 yards and 1 touchdown two weeks ago.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson has only been back from injury for five weeks and he's already posted stat lines of 8 for 72 on 9 targets and 7 for 114 on 9 targets. He has spike week potential at home in the dome against a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

George Kittle only had one catch for seven yards in the snow last week. Recency bias will keep his ownership levels down. He's at home in a game that could turn into a shootout and he's been awesome this season. At the tight end position, he ranks third in receiving yards (649) and first in touchdowns (8).

The Browns defense has allowed the tenth most fantasy points per game (11.0) to the tight end positon this season. Pat Freiermuth is at home, in a good matchup, is priced at just $3,800, and will be low-owned. He is coming off his best game of the season catching 6 of 7 targets for 68 yards and 1 touchdown.

The Raiders defense has allowed the third most fantasy points per game (13.3) to the tight end position this season. Cade Otton has gone cold since Mike Evans returned, but this could be a spike week at home in a great matchup. Earlier this season, he went on a three-game stretch of fantasy domination: 8 for 100 on 10 targets, 9 for 81 and 2 touchdowns on 10 targets, and 8 for 77 and 1 touchdown on 11 targets.

Team Defenses

Aaron Rodgers has one foot out the door and Breece Hall is doubtful. The Dolphins are 6.5-point home favorites.

Kirk Cousins is immobile and lacks velocity on downfield throws. The Vikings defense leads the entire NFL in EPA/Play Allowed. This one has a chance to get ugly with Minnesota playing at home.

The Saints defense isn't very good but this is all about betting against Drew Lock. Lock threw an interception and was sacked six times last week. He's not good.

Key Injuries

• Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both OUT
  • Upgrade Isaac Guerendo
• Breece Hall Doubtful
  • Upgrade Braelon Allen
• Taysom Hill OUT
  • Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller
• Dallas Goedert OUT
  • Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
• Chris Godwin OUT
  • Upgrade Mike Evans
• Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis both OUT
  • Upgrade Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Evan Engram
• Brandon Aiyuk OUT
  • Upgrade Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle
• Jalen Coker Doubtful
  • Upgrade Adam Thieken, Xavier Legette, and David Moore
• Questionable Players
  • Ken Walker III
  • Bucky Irving
  • George Pickens
  • Malik Nabers
  • DJ Moore
  • D'Andre Swift
  • Dalton Kincaid
  • Keon Coleman
  • Raheem Mostert
  • Alexander Mattison
  • Kendre Miller
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders
  • Trey Palmer

Favorite Tournament Stacks

• Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown
• Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson
• Tua Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane, and Tyreek Hill

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Saquon Barkley
• Isaac Guerendo
• Alvin Kamara
• Jakobi Meyers

Flag Plant Tournament Play

• Justin Jefferson