Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

• Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 50.5
• Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 45.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Texans on road vs Jaguars - Implied Team Total 24.5
• Buccaneers on road vs Panthers - Implied Team Total 26.5
• Rams on road vs Saints - Implied Team Total 25.5
• Chargers on road vs Falcons - Implied Team Total 24.5
• Bengals at home vs Steelers - Implied Team Total 24.5

Cash Games

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield ranks fifth in passing yards per game (254.5) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks tenth in EPA/Play, seventh in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and sixth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He has an incredible matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards per game (275.9) and leads a Seahawks offense that ranks third in EDPF and second in PROE. He has a matchup we shouldn't shy away from against a middle-of-the-pack Jets defense. The Jets' season is over and Aaron Rodgers is complaining to the media. There is a decent chance this team comes out flat with little energy after their bye. If so, Smith could cook.

Matthew Stafford ranks fifth in passing yards per game (254.5) and leads a Rams offense that ranks fifth in EDPF and 11th in PROE. He's been heating up with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back and now gets a Saints defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon leads the NFL in opportunities per game (24.3), ranks third in total yards per game (112.4), and fourth in total touchdowns (11). The Texans are 5.5-point favorites, and Mixon gets a putrid Jaguars defense that ranks just 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed.

Bucky Irving has taken over as Tampa Bay's lead running back. Over the past two games he's averaging 17 opportunities and 119 total yards (would rank second in the NFL). Irving is in the dream spot against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.

Alvin Kamara has been a volume sponge all year. He ranks second in opportunities per game (23.3) and fourth in total yards per game (111.4). He's at home against a Rams defense that only ranks 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Bijan Robinson ranks 11th in opportunities per game (19.7) and sixth in total yards per game (103.8). Vegas has this one as essentially a toss-up with the Chargers only 1.5-point favorites. Robinson is at home in a tough matchup on paper but Derrick Henry just put 140 rushing yards on this defense last week.

JK Dobbins has been one of the best stories of the 2024 season. Unfortunately, he's on the shelf for a bit with a knee injury. That propels Gus Edwards into a fantastic role for fantasy as the Chargers' leading rusher. Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman is familiar with Edwards, dating back to their time together in Baltimore, so he shouldn't have any problem leaning on him. Priced at just $4,300, Edwards is a strong cash option against a Falcons defense that ranks just 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed.

Chuba Hubbard is such a good football player and is having an awesome season. He ranks 11th in opportunities per game (19.7), 14th in total yards per game (91.1), and 11th in total touchdowns (8). Hubbard is at home against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed, and middle-of-the-pack in Rush EPA Allowed (15th).

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (101.9). He could go nuclear in one of the best matchups imaginable against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are in a good environment against a Saints defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed. Nacua ranks sixth in receiving yards per game (81.7), and Kupp ranks eighth in receiving yards per game (78.3).

After a slow first month of the season, Justin Herbert is averaging 260.8 passing yards per game in October and November. That would rank fourth highest if over the full season. This benefits Herbert's number-one receiver, Ladd McConkey. He has caught six passes in back-to-back games and totaled 206 receiving yards in that span. The matchup is great against a Falcons defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

David Moore's offensive snap percentages over his past four games: 82%, 87%, 83%, and 94%. He just put up season-high numbers across the board last week, catching 6 of 10 targets for 81 yards and 1 touchdown. He's priced at just $3,500 at home against a Buccaneers defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Moore is your salary-saver wide receiver in cash for the week.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill is a cash game lock. Before the Saints' bye, he ran for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns, caught 8 of 10 targets for 50 yards, and completed a pass for 18 yards in Week 11.

The Colts have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.4) this season. Hunter Henry is at home and leads the Patriots in targets (74), receptions (51), and receiving yards (535).

Will Dissly has caught four or more passes in six of his past seven games. He's become a stable part of the Chargers passing attack as the offense as a whole has shifted to more of a pass-first philosophy. Dissly has a good matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

The Commanders are 5.5-point home favorites against Will Levis. Levis has been sacked the fourth-most (35) despite only playing in eight games and turns the ball over like it's the objective of playing quarterback.

The Rams provide salary savings at just $2,700. They're 2.5-point favorites despite playing on the road against a banged-up Saints offense. The Rams young defensive line ranks sixth in pressure rate (26.2%).

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson has a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks fourth-best in EPA/Play Allowed and tenth-best in Dropback EPA Allowed. But the Eagles defense also has a tough matchup against Jackson. The front-runner to win his third MVP award ranks seventh in passing yards per game (254.4) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and leads a Ravens offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play. Jackson is at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week.

Jalen Hurts is also playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week and has the better matchup. Hurts gets a Ravens defense that ranks just 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed. The dual-threat Hurts leads an Eagles offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play. He's thrown for 13 touchdowns and run for 11 more so far this season.

Joe Burrow has a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks third-best in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed and is coming off the bye week. He'll be low-owned due to the matchup as well as recency bias. That's interesting since Burrow is putting on a master class this season. He ranks second in passing yards per game (275.3) and first in pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and leads a Bengals offense that ranks third in EPA/Play, first in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE).

After a slow first month of the season, Justin Herbert is averaging 260.8 passing yards per game in October and November. That would rank fourth highest if over the full season. Herbert has a great matchup to help him stay hot against a Falcons defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

C.J. Stroud is having a disappointing second season when factoring in expectations. Unfortunately, Stroud's offensive line has played a major factor in the sophomore slump. That might not matter in this one though in one of the best matchups imaginable against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. With Nico Collins back and operating at the peak of his powers, Stroud could exploit this beneficial spot in a big way.

The dual-threat Anthony Richardson offers multiple paths to fantasy points in an awesome matchup. The Patriots defense is atrocious. They rank just 30th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams has had a slow month, so expect him to be low-owned due to recency bias. He could boom this week against a Saints defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed. Williams ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.6) and fourth in total touchdowns (11).

Saquon Barkley has a tough matchup on paper against a Ravens defense that ranks fourth-best in Rush EPA Allowed. But of course, it's Barkley. He's playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week and ranks second in opportunities per game (23.3), first in total yards per game (149.9), and second in total touchdowns (12).

Derrick Henry also has a tough matchup on paper against an Eagles defense that ranks second-best in Rush EPA Allowed. That doesn't matter when it comes to King Henry and this potent Ravens offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play. Henry ranks 15th in opportunities per game (19.4), second in total yards per game (118.4), and first in total touchdowns (15).

Ken Walker III has had a slow month, so expect him to be low-owned. That's intriguing because he has a matchup we shouldn't shy away from against a middle-of-the-pack Jets defense. The Jets' season is over and Aaron Rodgers is complaining to the media. There is a decent chance this team comes out flat with little energy after their bye. If so, Walker could put up a huge game.

Chase Brown is the only Bengals running back who has touched the ball since Zack Moss was lost with an injury. Over the past three games, Brown is averaging 28.3 opportunities (would lead the NFL) and 131.3 total yards per game (would rank second in the NFL). He has the prime Christian McCaffrey right now and that shouldn't change in this one with the Bengals still fighting for their playoff lives.

Jonathan Taylor is a strong tournament play as he projects to be low-owned since he hasn't found the end zone in over a month. That could change in a big way in this awesome spot against a bad Patriots defense that ranks just 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Rush EPA Allowed. The peripherals are there as Taylor ranks ninth in opportunities per game (20.3) and 15th in total yards per game (91).

This Cardinals at Vikings game is an intriguing one that could end up being higher scoring than Vegas projects. Aaron Jones is at home, the Vikings are 3.5-point favorites, and Jones ranks 14th in opportunities per game (19.6) and ninth in total yards per game (98.5). The matchup isn't one to shy away from as the Cardinals defense ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and middle-of-the-pack in Rush EPA Allowed (17th).

Wide Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase ranks seventh in targets per game (9.1), second in receiving yards per game (96), and first in receiving touchdowns (12). The Bengals are playing for their postseason lives. He has a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks third-best in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed and is coming off the bye week. Take advantage. But don't forget about Tee Higgins either. Higgins is on a heater. Over his past four games, he has caught four touchdowns and averaged 97.5 receiving yards (would rank second in the NFL if over the full season).

Justin Jefferson hasn't caught a touchdown in five games and just put up an absolute stinker, catching just two passes for 27 yards last week while teammates Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson both went off. It's the perfect time to play him in tournaments. Take advantage of recency bias. Jefferson is at home in a game with sneaky shootout potential against a Cardinals defense that ranks just 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Despite this brief cold patch, he still ranks fourth in receiving yards per game (85.4).

A.J. Brown ranks third in receiving yards per game (90.9) and has both a great matchup and a favorable fantasy environment to exploit. He's playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week and gets a Ravens defense that ranks just 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Mike Evans returned from a long absence due to a hamstring injury and got one decent game under his belt last week. It's now go time for the alpha Evans with Chris Godwin no longer competing for targets with him. Evans could go bonkers against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

George Pickens is averaging 82.6 receiving yards per game (would rank fifth in the NFL if over the full season) in Russell Wilson's five starts. He's in an extremely competitive AFC North matchup against a Bengals defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards per game (275.9) and leads a Seahawks offense that ranks third in EDPF and second in PROE. He has a matchup we shouldn't shy away from against a middle-of-the-pack Jets defense. The Jets' season is over, and Aaron Rodgers is complaining to the media. There is a decent chance this team comes out flat with little energy after their bye. If so, Smith could cook. This could lead to massive games for DK Metcalf and/or Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Both are alpha receivers. Smith-Njigba ranks 15th in targets per game (8.5), and Metcalf ranks 16th in targets per game (8.3).

Lamar Jackson has a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks fourth-best in EPA/Play Allowed and tenth-best in Dropback EPA Allowed. But the Eagles defense also has a tough matchup against Jackson. The front-runner to win his third MVP award ranks seventh in passing yards per game (254.4) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and leads a Ravens offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play. Jackson is at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week. Zay Flowers, paired with Jackson, leads the Ravens in targets (87), receptions (57), and receiving yards (789). Flowers has seen 32 more targets, caught 20 more passes, and hauled in 215 more receiving yards than any other teammate.

All eyes are back on Nico Collins but without Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell is firmly in the wide receiver two role he occupied in 2023 before getting injured. Dell looks healthier as he has posted receptions of 50, 26, and 39 yards over his past four games. He could pop up for a big game in one of the best matchups imaginable against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride's upside is undeniable. He's Kyler Murray's number-one option and, over his past four games, has posted two massive games. Those stat lines: 9 catches on 11 targets for 124 yards and 12 catches on 15 targets for 133 yards. McBride is playing in a game against the Vikings with sneaky shootout potential.

T.J. Hockenson has now played in four games since returning from last season's torn ACL. Last week, he played on a season-high 68% of the offensive snaps and turned that into 7 receptions on 9 targets for a season-high 114 receiving yards. Hockenson is at home in a game with sneaky shootout potential against a Cardinals defense that ranks just 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Dallas Goedert is the clear-cut number-two receiving option for the Eagles without DeVonta Smith. He's playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week and gets a Ravens defense that ranks just 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

The Jets' season is over, and Aaron Rodgers is complaining to the media. There is a decent chance this team comes out flat with little energy after their bye. If so, Mike Macdonald's improving defensive unit could have a field day against the old, immobile, and banged-up Rodgers.

Key Injuries

• DeVonta Smith OUT
  • Upgrade A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert
• J.K. Dobbins OUT
  • Upgrade Gus Edwards
• Tyjae Spears OUT
  • Upgrade Tony Pollard
• Chris Godwin OUT
  • Upgrade Mike Evans
• Stefon Diggs OUT
  • Upgrade: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and John Metchie III

Favorite Tournament Stacks

• Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers
• Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown
• Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase or Chase and Tee Higgins
• C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Bucky Irving
• Taysom Hill

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Ken Walker III
• Justin Jefferson