Favorite Fantasy Game Environment
- San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 47.5
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 47.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Lions on road vs Colts - Implied Team Total 29
- Commanders at home vs Cowboys - Implied Team Total 27.5
- Chiefs on road vs Panthers - Implied Team Total 27
- Dolphins at home vs Patriots - Implied Team Total 26.3
- Broncos on road vs Raiders - Implied Team Total 23.5
- Texans at home vs Titans - Implied Team Total 25
Cash Games
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Allen | at Packers | $4,000 |
| 2 | Tommy Devito | vs Buccaneers | $4,000 |
This is a unique week where there's a clear-cut top six quarterbacks and they're all tournament-eligible plays. Scroll down to the tournament section for the rest of the quarterbacks.
Brandon Allen is priced at $4,000, allowing us to roster three stud running backs, which is what we should be looking to do every week in cash. Operating Kyle Shanahan's offense and surrounded by Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle, Allen should produce enough points per dollar.
Tommy Devito is not a comfortable, stable cash play. However, he's priced at just $4,000 and is in a good spot at home against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. DeVito allows for salary flexibility to pay up for three stud running backs, which is what we should be looking to do every week in cash.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Mixon | vs Titans | $8,000 |
| 2 | Brian Robinson Jr | vs Cowboys | $5,600 |
| 3 | David Montgomery | at Colts | $6,700 |
| 4 | Aaron Jones | at Bears | $6,400 |
| 5 | Bucky Irving | at Giants | $5,300 |
| 6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | vs Buccaneers | $6,000 |
Joe Mixon leads the NFL in opportunities per game (24.9), ranks second in total yards per game (120.9), and third in total touchdowns (11). The Texans are 8.5-point home favorites.
Brian Robinson Jr has seven touchdowns in eight games this season. The Commanders are 10.5-point home favorites, and Robinson gets an awful Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
David Montgomery ranks sixth in total touchdowns (10) and has scored in eight of ten contests this season. The Lions are 7.5-point favorites.
Aaron Jones ranks 15th in opportunities per game (19) and 12th in total yards per game (95.4). Jones is a dual-threat who gets a Bears defense that struggles to defend the run as they rank 30th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Bucky Irving's averages over his past three games: 14 opportunities and 68.3 total yards. Both of these are higher than Rachaad White's averages. Irving is operating as Tamp Bay's lead rusher, the Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites, and the matchup is solid against a Giants defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s averages over his past three games: 16.7 opportunities and 107.7 total yards (would rank fifth-most over the full season). Tracy is a supremely talented rookie and gets a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | at Colts | $8,300 |
| 2 | Jauan Jennings | at Packers | $5,600 |
| 3 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | vs Cardinals | $6,300 |
| 4 | Malik Nabers | vs Buccaneers | $7,400 |
| 5 | Courtland Sutton | at Raiders | $5,800 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks 18th in receiving yards per game (68.5) and is coming off his best game of the season where he caught all 11 of his targets for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns. He's in a good spot in the dome in Indianapolis against a Colts defense that ha struggled to defend team's wide receiver ones this season.
Jauan Jennings is playing Brandon Aiyuk's role in San Francisco, and he's completely balling out. Jennings has seen 11 targets and gone over 90 receiving yards in back-to-back games. His $5,600 price tag by DraftKings is shameful. He would be a cash game lock in one of the best fantasy games of the week if Brock Purdy were playing. Even still, he's in play.
Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards per game (278.1) and runs a Seahawks offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). This is beneficial for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has seen double-digit targets and has gone over 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games. Smith-Njigba is extremely talented and is playing at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week in a favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
**Malik Nabers is listed as questionable, so his status must be monitored.** He leads the NFL in targets per game (11.8) and is in a good spot at home against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Courtland Sutton's targets over his past four games: 11, 10, 9, and 8. His receiving yards over that span are 100, 122, 70, and 78. Sutton is priced at just $5,800 and has a great matchup on tap against a Raiders defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Bowers | vs Broncos | $6,300 |
| 2 | Hunter Henry | at Dolphins | $4,000 |
| 3 | Jonnu Smith | vs Patriots | $4,100 |
Brock Bowers is on pace to break all rookie receiving records. He leads all tight ends in targets (86), receptions (70), and receiving yards (706). The Broncos have a strong defense, but Bowers already put up 8 receptions on 12 targets for 97 yards and 1 touchdown on them earlier this season.
Over the past three weeks, Hunter Henry has seen games with targets of both 8 and 9. He leads the Patriots in targets (66), receptions (46), and receiving yards (491). Henry allows you to essentially roster a team's wide receiver, one priced at just $4,000 and one that gets to play in a favorable fantasy game against a Dolphins defense that ranks middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed (16th) and Dropback EPA Allowed (18th).
Jonnu Smith has become a consistent part of Miami's offense. His targets in his past six games are 8, 7, 6, 6, 4, and 8. He caught 6 passes for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Smith has a good matchup at home against a Patriots defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Commanders | vs Cowboys | $3,500 |
| 2 | Texans | vs Titans | $3,600 |
The Commanders are 10.5-point home favorites against Cooper Rush. Rush has thrown one interception, been sacked six times, and fumbled four times in two starts.
The Texas are 8.5-point home favorites and get to attack Will Levis. Levis has taken the eight-most sacks (27) despite only playing in seven games this season. He's thrown the same amount of interceptions as touchdown passes.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geno Smith | vs Cardinals | $5,700 |
| 2 | Kyler Murray | at Seahawks | $6,200 |
| 3 | Jordan Love | vs 49ers | $6,700 |
| 4 | Jayden Daniels | vs Cowboys | $7,000 |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes II | at Panthers | $6,800 |
| 6 | Tua Tagovailoa | vs Patriots | $5,800 |
Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards per game (278.1) and runs a Seahawks offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He's at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week in a favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Kyler Murray has a game with two rushing touchdowns and one with over 300 passing yards and 2 touchdowns over his past three contests. The dual threat could be unlocked in one of the best fantasy games of the week, which doubles as an extremely competitive NFC West matchup as well. Murray can attack a Seahawks defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Jordan Love is the home quarterback in arguably the best fantasy game of the week. He ranks fifth in passing yards per game (260.1), fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2), and leads a Packers offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play.
After a fast start, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense has cooled down, partially due to Daniels' rib injury. With a week and a half to rest after Washington played on Thursday night football last week, Daniels' is hopefully feeling better. It's worth taking a risk on at low ownership in man incredible spot at home against an awful Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Patrick Mahomes II against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed? Ya, the upside is definitely there. Mahomes ranks 12th in passing yards per game (240.4) and ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.5) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play, tenth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE).
Tua Tagovailoa ranks 11th in passing yards per game (240.5) and ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). This game has sneaky shootout potential with Drake Maye on the other side, and Tagovailoa has a good matchup at home against a Patriots defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | at Packers | $8,500 |
| 2 | Kareem Hunt | at Panthers | $5,700 |
| 3 | De'Von Achane | vs Patriots | $7,500 |
| 4 | Ken Walker III | vs Cardinals | $6,900 |
| 5 | Jahmyr Gibbs | at Colts | $7,300 |
| 6 | James Conner | at Seahawks | $6,500 |
| 7 | Josh Jacobs | vs 49ers | $6,800 |
The 49ers' playoff hopes are heavily up in the air so expect Kyle Shanahan to ride Christian McCaffrey until the wheels fall off. McCaffrey ranks sixth in opportunities per game (22) and fifth in total yards per game (106.5) through two games so far this season. He ranked second in opportunities per game (22.2), first in total yards per game (126.4), and first in total touchdowns (21) last year. McCaffrey gets a Packers defense that ranks 26th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Isiah Pacheco is out once again. Kareem Hunt ranks fourth in opportunities per game (22.4) and 18th in total yards per game (89.3). The Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites, and Hunt gets a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.
De'Von Achane continues to smash with Tua Tagovailoa. In six Tagovailoa starts Achane's averages: 20.3 opportunities (would rank 11th) and 115 total yards (would rank fourth). Achane is at home and gets a Patriots defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Ken Walker III ranks 20th in opportunities per game (18.6) and 11th in total touchdowns (8). He's at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week in a great spot against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Jahmyr Gibbs only ranks 26th in opportunities per game (16.2) yet ranks sixth in total yards per game (105.2) and ninth in total touchdowns (9). Gibbs is an elite talent playing in the league's best offense. His efficiency is off the charts and doesn't project to slow down anytime soon, making him a weekly tournament play offering high upside.
James Conner ranks 17th in opportunities per game (18.9) and 14th in total yards per game (94.4). His advanced metrics were strong in 2023, and he's picked back up right where he left off this season as well. Conner is playing in arguably the best fantasy game of the week, and the Seahawks defense isn't one to shy away from as they rank middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed (18th) and Rush EPA Allowed (14th).
Josh Jacobs ranks ninth in both opportunities per game (20.5) and total yards per game (102.4). He's at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a 49ers defense that ranks middle of the pack in Rush EPA Allowed (16th).
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Jefferson | at Bears | $8,100 |
| 2 | Kendrick Bourne | at Dolphins | $3,600 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | vs Titans | $7,600 |
| 4 | Tyreek Hill | vs Patriots | $7,200 |
| 5 | DK Metcalf | vs Cardinals | $6,600 |
| 6 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | at Packers | $6,500 |
| 7 | Marvin Harrison Jr.. | at Seahawks | $6,100 |
| 8 | Jayden Reed | vs 49ers | $5,900 |
| 9 | Terry McLaurin | vs Cowboys | $6,800 |
| 10 | DeAndre Hopkins | at Panthers | $5,400 |
Justin Jefferson ranks just 15th in targets per game (8.6) but third in receiving yards per game (91.2). His efficiency is due to his elite talent. After two down games, Jefferson will go overlooked thanks to a combination of recency bias and a tough matchup on paper. Take advantage as Jefferson can break the slate in any given week.
After not playing in Week 10, the Patriots got Kendrick Bourne back into the rotation last week. Bourne played on 47% of the offensive snaps and caught all five of his targets for 70 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Bourne is New England's best outside receiver, is paired with talented rookie Drake Maye, and gets to play in a favorable fantasy game against a Dolphins defense that ranks middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed (16th) and Dropback EPA Allowed (18th). He'll be low-owned and is priced at just $3,600.
Nico Collins missed five games due to a hamstring injury and disappointingly only played on 47% of the offensive snaps in his return last week. Recency bias will keep his ownership down. Pounce. Collins projects to return to a full-time role this week after exiting Week 11 without any setbacks. Collins ranks 14th in targets per game (8.7) and leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (103.5). He's at home in a good spot against a Titans defense that ranks 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tyreek Hill has scored in two straight games as the offense heats back up with Tua Tagovailoa under center. This game has sneaky shootout potential with Drake Maye on the other side, and Hill has a good matchup at home against a Patriots defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards per game (278.1) and runs a Seahawks offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). This is beneficial for DK Metcalf who recently missed two games, Seattle had their bye week, and didn't post a massive game in his return last week. Metcalf's ownership will be kept in check thanks to recency bias, and this projects as a possible nuclear spot at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week in a favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
It's been over a month since Deebo Samuel Sr. posted a big game and as we know, a month in NFL terms feels like a year. Recency bias will keep Samuel's ownership percentages low. That's exciting from a tournament standpoint as Samuel is playing in arguably the best fantasy game of the week. Even with Christian McCaffrey back Samuel is still seeing carries as well, giving him dual-threat upside.
Marvin Harrison Jr. will be slept on since the Cardinals are coming out of their bye, making him a fun tournament play in a great fantasy game against a Seahawks defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. Harrison Jr. ranks third at wide receiver in touchdowns (6).
49ers at Packers has a 47.5-point Over/Under and projects as a competitive contest. Here are Jayden Reed's numbers in Green Bay's three losses this season: 4 catches for 138 yards and 1 touchdown, 7 catches for 139 yards and 1 touchdown, and 5 catches for 113 yards. San Francisco projects to push Green Bay's offense in this one, giving Reed a massive ceiling priced at just $5,900.
Terry McLaurin caught just one pass for 10 yards in primetime last week. With that recent stench in the minds of many, look for McLaurin to be low-owned despite being in an amazing spot at home against an awful Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed. McLaurin has seen 26 more targets, caught 22 more passes, racked up 366 more receiving yards, and hauled in 5 more touchdowns than any other wide receiver on the Commanders.
DeAndre Hopkins showed us all what he's capable of in this Chiefs offense three weeks ago, catching 8 of 9 targets for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns. Since then, he's been quiet. Use that to your advantage in tournaments as this spot couldn't get much better. The Panthers defense ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | at Seahawks | $5,600 |
| 2 | George Kittle | at Packers | $6,000 |
| 3 | Travis Kelce | at Panthers | $5,800 |
| 4 | Tucker Kraft | vs 49ers | $3,900 |
| 5 | Cade Otton | at Giants | $5,500 |
Trey McBride is one of the most talented tight ends in the NFL. His ranks at the position: fourth in targets (61), third in receptions (49), and third in receiving yards (552). There is TE1 overall upside this week in a good fantasy game against a Seahawks defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
George Kittle missed last week with a hamstring injury, which will cause many to fear playing him. He's been on a heater all year as he ranks second in receiving yards (560) and first in touchdowns (7) at the tight end position. Kittle is a gamer and will show up in a big way as the 49ers fight for their playoff lives in a potential shootout.
The Panthers defense ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Patrick Mahomes II ranks 12th in passing yards per game (240.4) and ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.5) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play, tenth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Mahomes projects to have a strong game here and that could easily trickle down to Travis Kelce. Prior to last week's four-target game, Kelce had seen target totals of 12, 16, and 12.
Tucker Kraft didn't catch a pass last week so he'll be off the tournament radar for most and low-owned. Green Bay didn't run a lot of plays last week. Kraft's role didn't change at all as he played on 93% of the offensive snaps. Kraft's $3,900 price tag and likely sub-3 % ownership are intriguing in a great fantasy game.
Mike Evans projects to return and the Buccaneers just had their bye week, so the Cade Otton craze is likely over. This is just a reminder of the stretch Otton went on from Weeks 7-9: 8 for 100 on 10 targets, 9 for 81 and 2 touchdowns on 10 targets, and 8 for 77 and 1 touchdown on 11 targets.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos | at Raiders | $3,200 |
| 2 | Buccaneers | at Giants | $3,300 |
The Broncos have one of the league's best and most complete defenses and get to face off against a journeyman quarterback who was benched earlier this season. Gardner Minshew II has thrown more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (8) this season.
The Buccaneers have an average defense but they're in a good spot here going against Tommy DeVito. DeVito was sacked an unprecedented 37 times in just nine games last season. He only started six of those nine games.
Key Injuries
- Brock Purdy OUT
- Upgrade Brandon Allen
- Isiah Pacheco OUT
- Upgrade Kareem Huny
- Alexander Mattison and Zamir White both Doubtful
- Upgrade Ameer Abdullah
- Tyjae Spears OUT
- Upgrade Tony Pollard
- Dak Prescott OUT
- Upgrade Commanders D/ST
- Jake Ferguson OUT
- Upgrade CeeDee Lamb and Luke Schoonmaker
- Sam LaPorta OUT
- Upgrade: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick, Brock Wright, and Kalif Raymond
- Brandon Aiyuk OUT
- Upgrade Deebo Samuel Sr., Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle (Questionable)
- Chris Godwin OUT
- Stefon Diggs OUT
- Upgrade: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and John Metchie III
- Malik Nabers Questionable
- Mike Evans Questionable
- D'Andre Swift Questionable
- Keenan Allen Questionable
- Jonathon Brooks Questionable but expected to make his season debut
- Adam Thielen Questionable
- Jalen Coker Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Runback Options: James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Trey McBride
- Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride
- Runback Options: DK Metcalf or Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft
- Runback Options: Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel Sr., or George Kittle
- Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin
- Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and DeAndre Hopkins
Flag Plant Cash Plays
Flag Plant Tournament Plays
