Cracking DraftKings: Week 11

Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

• Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 50.5
• Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 45.5
• Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers - Over/Under 48.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Lions at home vs Jaguars - Implied Team Total 30.5
• Dolphins at home vs Raiders - Implied Team Total 26
• Broncos at home vs Falcons - Implied Team Total 23

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy ranks third in passing yards per game (272.7) and leads an offense that ranks tenth in EPA/Play. He's at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week against a Seahawks defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jared Goff leads an offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play and ranks eighth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). He's at home in a matchup where Detroit's offense should be able to do whatever they want against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Russell Wilson is one of the best storylines of 2024. He ranks 11th in passing yards per game (245.7) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2). He's at home in a game where he'll have to pass to keep up with the Ravens and the matchup should allow him to do just that. Baltimore's defense has struggled to defend the pass this season as they rank 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ranked second in opportunities per game (22.2), first in total yards per game (126.4), and first in total touchdowns (21) last season. He played on 88% of the offensive snaps, saw 20 opportunities, and put up 107 total yards in his debut last week. The 49ers are 6.5-point home favorites and McCaffrey gets a Seahawks defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Alvin Kamara ranks third in the NFL in opportunities per game (23.6) and fourth in total yards per game (113.6). Basically, the rest of the offensive skill position players around him are injured. He projects to continue seeing a massive workload and is at home against a Browns defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.

The Lions are 13.5-point home favorites. David Montgomery ranks sixth in the NFL in total touchdowns (8) and has scored in seven of nine games this season. Detroit's offense should be able to do whatever they want against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and middle-of-the-pack in Rush EPA Allowed (16th-ranked).

The Bears are a total mess and the Packers are 5.5-point favorites despite being on the road. Josh Jacobs ranks ninth in opportunities per game (20.2) and 12th in total yards per game (98.9) and gets to attack a Bears defense that only ranks 30th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Kareem Hunt ranks second in opportunities per game (23.8) and 15th in total yards per game (94.2). He's purely a volume play in cash as the matchup isn't ideal against a Bills defense that ranks seventh-best in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

George Pickens averages in three Russell Wilson starts: 4.7 receptions and 92 yards. He has caught a touchdown in two of those three games. Pickens is an elite talent and is in a fantastic matchup against a Ravens defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jameis Winston is a massive upgrade aver Deshaun Watson. Winston has thrown for 284.5 passing yards per game (would lead the NFL) and 2 pass touchdowns per game (would rank fifth) in two starts. He leads a Browns offense that ranks second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and leads the NFL in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Here are Cedric Tillman's lines in Winston's two starts: 7 for 99 and 2 touchdowns on 9 targets and 6 for 75 and 1 on 11 targets. Tillman is a great play in all formats in a favorable matchup against a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and middle of the pack in Dropback EPA Allowed (16th ranked). He's priced at just $5,300.

Kyle Shanahan confirmed this week Jauan Jennings has taken over as the X receiver in the 49ers offense as the Brandon Aiyuk replacement. Jennings caught 7 of 11 targets for 93 yards last week. He's priced at just $5,300 at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week against a Seahawks defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jakobi Meyers in two games since returning from injury and operating as the new wide receiver one: 6 for 52 and 1 touchdown on 7 targets and 8 for 105 on 11 targets. Priced at just $5,600, Meyers offers guaranteed target volume in a matchup we shouldn't shy away from against a Dolphins defense that ranks 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Bo Nix is progressing well and things are now clicking with the Broncos' clear alpha receiver, Courtland Sutton. Sutton's stat lines in his past three games: 8 for 100 on 11 targets, 7 for 122 on 10 targets, and 6 for 70 and 1 touchdown on 9 targets. Sutton is priced at just $5,900 and gets to play at home in a good spot against a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Kayshon Boutte is priced at just $3,500 and provides the highly sought-after salary relief that allows us to mash in multiple stud running backs in cash. Yet he makes sense as a play in his own right. Boutte has played on 96% and 97% of the offensive snaps the past two games and seen six targets in three straight contests. He's at home against a middle-of-the-pack Rams defense in both EPA/Play Allowed (15th best) and Dropback EPA Allowed (14th best).

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson is priced relatively affordably despite racking up 8 receptions for 72 yards on 9 targets last week in just his second game this season.

Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Kendre Miller, and Jamaal Williams are all out once again. Taysom Hill's opportunities over his past three games: 8, 10, and 6. Hill offers rushing upside in a good spot at home against a Browns defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Tucker Kraft provides a decent floor and ceiling combination in cash priced decently at $4,400. He has seen four or more targets in five of his past six games, ranks second at the tight end position in touchdowns (5), and averages an impressive 13.4 yards per reception thanks to his athleticism.

Getting Hunter Henry at just $3,900 in cash is pretty strong. Henry's ranks at the tight end position: eighth in receptions (40) and seventh in receiving yards (428). And Henry leads the Patriots in targets (57), receptions (40), and receiving yards (428).

Team Defenses

The Lions are 13.5-point home favorites against Mac Jones. After a strong rookie season, Jones' career has free-fallen to near rock bottom. Jones has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns since 2022 and been sacked 61 times over that stretch.

The Bears offense has completely bottomed out culminated by the firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week. Over the past three games, Caleb Williams has thrown zero touchdown passes and been sacked 18 times. The Packers are 5.5-point favorites.

The Browns are a fantastic salary-saver option priced at just $2,600. The Saints offense has been obliterated by injuries. Led by Myles Garrett the Browns defense ranks 11th in the league in sacks (27).

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson is expensive and he's on the road in a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks fourth best in EPA/Play Allowed and seventh best in Dropback EPA Allowed. He'll be low-owned because of these reasons. That's intriguing because he's the best quarterback in fantasy football. Jackson ranks fifth in passing yards per game (266.9 and first in pass touchdowns per game (2.4) and leads a Ravens offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play. Of course, he's an elite rusher as well.

The Bills' motivation against the Chiefs is tough to quantify but one would assume it will be there since Kansas City is their rival who continually beats them when it matters. This could lead to the offense revolving around Josh Allen more than usual. Allen already ranks ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7) and leads a Bills offense that ranks third in EPA/Play and eighth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Allen also has four rushing touchdowns on the season and 57 in his seven-year career.

Drake Maye is priced at just $5,600 and is at home against a middle-of-the-pack Rams defense in both EPA/Play Allowed (15th best) and Dropback EPA Allowed (14th best). Maye has thrown 1.8 touchdowns per game in his four healthy starts, which would rank eighth in the NFL. He's also a dual-threat who has run for 233 yards and 1 touchdown already in his limited action this season.

Jameis Winston projects as a fantastic play in all formats, it's just a question of which Winston we will get on Sunday. He's on the road in the dome he's familiar with having been a Saint for numerous seasons in a  favorable matchup against a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and middle of the pack in Dropback EPA Allowed (16th ranked). Winston has thrown for 284.5 passing yards per game (would lead the NFL) and 2 pass touchdowns per game (would rank fifth) in two starts. He leads a Browns offense that ranks second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and leads the NFL in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF).

Patrick Mahomes II is on the radar because he's only priced at $6,800. It's surprising to see this but props to DraftKings as Mahomes only ranks 16th at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (17.1). This is a competitive game and Mahomes ranks 12th in passing yards per game (245.3) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks 12th in EPA/Play, 12th in EDPF, and fourth in PROE.

Running Backs

The Lions are 13.5-point home favorites. Jahmyr Gibbs ranks sixth in the NFL in total touchdowns (8) and has scored in six of nine games this season. Detroit's offense should be able to do whatever they want against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and middle-of-the-pack in Rush EPA Allowed (16th-ranked). Gibbs ranks ninth in total yards per game (103.2) despite only ranking 24th in opportunities per game (16.7). He's en elite talent and could break the slate in this incredible spot.

Derrick Henry is expensive and he's on the road in a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks fourth best in EPA/Play Allowed and eighth best in Rush EPA Allowed. He'll be low-owned because of these reasons. That's intriguing because Henry ranks 13th in opportunities per game (19.6), second in total yards per game (121.6), and first in total touchdowns (14). The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites.

De'Von Achane has mainly been a fantasy hero in Tua Tagovailoa's five starts. His averages in those games: 20.2 opportunities per game (would rank ninth) and 117 total yards per game (would rank third). The Dolphins are 7.5-point home favorites and Achane gets to attack a Raiders defense that only ranks 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Kyren Williams ranks fourth in opportunities per game (23) and second in total touchdowns (10). The Rams are 4.5-point favorites despite being on the road. Williams has a decent matchup on tap against a Patriots defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and middle-of-the-pack in Rush EPA Allowed (15th-ranked). The Rams' offensive line has recently gotten a lot healthier, which could help set up Williams for a massive game most don't see coming.

Anthony Richardson will start and his rushing presence provides a boost to Jonathan Taylor's projection as defenses must worry about both of them. The Jets are really struggling and their defense only ranks 26th in Rush EPA Allowed. Taylor ranks seventh in opportunities per game (20.9) and eighth in total yards per game (103.4). Taylor offers a high ceiling in this spot.

Breece Hall has had three disappointing games in a row, which means he'll be low-owned thanks to recency bias. The exciting aspect of Hall's DFS tournament profile is his receiving ability. Hall caught 6 passes for 103 yards four games ago, has Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback who is not shy about checking down, and the target tree has narrowed to essentially just himself, Davante Adams, and Garrett Wilson.

We must proceed with caution regarding Nick Chubb as he'll only be playing in his fourth game on Sunday since returning from a devastating injury. Yet, Chubb is an elite talent, is averaging a respectable 16 opportunities per game, and has an awesome matchup here against a Saints defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed. Priced at just $6,000, he's on the tournament map albeit a more thin play than the others highlighted.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson had a poor statistical performance last week and is on the road in a non-ideal matchup while priced expensively. The tournament thought process here is simple, be contrarian by paying up for the best receiver in football. Jefferson ranks third in receiving yards per game (92.3).

Amon-Ra St. Brown is at home in a matchup where Detroit's offense should be able to do whatever they want against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed. The elite ceiling case is easy to imagine: if Ben Johnson and Jared Goff want to feed St. Brown, he could go nuclear. And the contrarian aspect is built in as St. Brown is expensive and hasn't been as involved as in years past. It helps that Sam LaPorta has been ruled out due to injury.

Puka Nacua looked awesome last week, putting concerns regarding his knee re-injury in the past. Nacua caught 9 of 14 targets for 98 yards, reminding everyone just how elite he was as a rookie. Nacua is one of the best wide receiver plays of the week in a good spot against a Patriots defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s workload the past two games: 7 targets and 4 carries and 6 targets and 3 carries. The dual-threat workload offers a high weekly ceiling even with Christian McCaffrey back in the fold. Samuel is at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week against a Seahawks defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tyreek Hill has disappointed this season and is dealing with a wrist injury. These factors will keep Hill's ownership low, especially priced at $7,400. Yet, Hill's bottom half is still healthy and he can still run faster than anyone trying to defend him. Thus, his ceiling remains as high as anyone else. Hill in tournaments at low ownership is a good process play at home against a Raiders defense that is middle-of-the-pack in both EPA/Play Allowed (18th-ranked) and Dropback EPA Allowed (17th-ranked).

Geno Smith ranks second in passing yards per game (284.4) and the Seahawks' offense ranks third in both Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and third in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). This is a high-volume passing offense, which is good for both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Both are priced at $6,500 and both are extremely talented. Pick your flavor. Metcalf's ownership won't be extreme due to returning from injury and Smith-Njigba's ownership won't be extreme due to Metcalf's return despite his 180 yards and 2 touchdowns line in his last game. The Seahawks are 6.5-point underdogs so their high-volume passing attack doesn't project to be going anywhere on Sunday.

The Bears are a complete mess and the Packers are 5.5-point favorites despite being on the road. Chicago does have a good pass defense but Jayden Reed ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards when lined up in the slot (462), making it tougher for the Bears to key in on trying to defend him. Reed will be low-owned coming off the bye and has multi-touchdown upside if Chicago's offense continues to stall, which would give the ball to Jordan Love and company for the majority of the game.

Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid are both out and Amari Cooper is questionable. Khalil Shakir's target totals over his past four games: 7, 10, 7, and 9. Shakir will lead all active players on the Bills on Sunday in targets (54) and no other active player will have more than 29. The Chiefs have a strong defense but Shakir ranks fourth in the NFL in receiving yards when lined up in the slot (414), making it tougher for the Chiefs to key in on trying to defend him.

Tight Ends

Paying up at tight end is a tough thing to do on DraftKings, making it somewhat of a contrarian and tournament strategy. So let's highlight four of the elites:

Brock Bowers ranks at the tight end position: second in receptions (57) and first in receiving yards (580). Bowers ranks 21st in targets per game (8.1) in the entire NFL.

Jameis Winston is a massive upgrade aver Deshaun Watson. Winston has thrown for 284.5 passing yards per game (would lead the NFL) and 2 pass touchdowns per game (would rank fifth) in two starts. He leads a Browns offense that ranks second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and leads the NFL in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). David Njoku's averages over his last four games: 8.8 targets, 6.3 receptions, 49.3 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns.

Travis Kelce's averages over his past six games without Rashee Rice: 10.7 targets, 8.7 receptions, and 71.7 receiving yards. After a slow start, Kelce has reverted right back to the elite option he has been for years.

George Kittle has scored a touchdown in six of eight games this season and leads all tight ends with 7 touchdowns. He's at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week against a Seahawks defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

The Dolphins defense played well last week, not allowing the Rams offense with their skill-position players healthy to score a single touchdown. The Dolphins are 7.5-point home favorites against Gardner Minshew II. Minshew has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and has been sacked the ninth-most (23) this season.

The Vikings defense leads the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed and they get to take on Will Levis. Levis has thrown the same amount of interceptions as touchdowns and been sacked the 12th-most (22) despite only playing in six games this season.

Key Injuries

• Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid both OUT and Amari Cooper Questionable
  • Upgrade Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper (If active), Curtis Samuel, and Dawson Knox
• Sam LaPorta OUT
  • Upgrade: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick, Brock Wright, and Kalif Raymond
• Tank Bigsby OUT
  • Upgrade Travis Etienne Jr.
• Brandon Aiyuk OUT
  • Upgrade Deebo Samuel Sr., Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle (Questionable)
• Allen Lazard OUT and Mike Williams Traded
  • Upgrade Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall
• Trevor Lawrence OUT
  • Upgrade Lions D/ST
• Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed both OUT
  
  • Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill
• Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams both OUT
  • Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill
• Christian Kirk OUT
  • Upgrade Evan Engram, Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis
• Jaylen Warren Questionable
  • Upgrade Najee Harris
• George Kittle Questionable

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• • Jameis Winston, Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku
    • Runback Options: Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill
  • Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers
• Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel Sr.
  • Runback Options: DK Metcalf or Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Christian McCaffrey
• Josh Jacobs
• Cedric Tillman
• Need a salary saver to mash in the stud running backs? Kayshon Boutte

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Jameis Winston
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Tyreek Hill