Favorite Fantasy Game Environment
- San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 50.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Eagles on road vs Cowboys - Implied Team Total 24.3
- Vikings on road vs Jaguars - Implied Team Total 26
- Falcons on road vs Saints - Implied Team Total 25
- Chiefs at home vs Broncos - Implied Team Total 25
- Bills on road vs Colts - Implied Team Total 25.5
- Commanders at home vs Steelers - Implied Team Total 24.3
- Chargers at home vs Titans - Implied Team Total 22.5
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Darnold | at Jaguars | $6,200 |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | vs Steelers | $7,500 |
| 3 | Kirk Cousins | at Saints | $6,700 |
| 4 | Drake Maye | at Bears | $5,800 |
Sam Darnold ranks fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) and leads a Vikings offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, eighth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He's in a great spot against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Jayden Daniels ranks sixth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (20.7) and leads a Commanders offense that ranks second in EPA/Play and ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Daniels is at home, and the Commanders have a strong 24.3 Implied Team Total.
Kirk Cousins ranks seventh in passing yards per game (258.7) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and leads a Falcons offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play. Cousins gets a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed. The Falcons have the seventh-highest Implied Team Total (25) of the week.
Drake Maye has been fantastic in his three healthy starts. His 241.7 passing yards per game would rank 12th and his two pass touchdowns per game would rank sixth. Maye is also a legitimate dual-threat who has already run for 209 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon Barkley | at Cowboys | $8,300 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | at Saints | $7,700 |
| 3 | Alvin Kamara | vs Falcons | $8,100 |
| 4 | Austin Ekeler | vs Steelers | $5,800 |
| 5 | Kareem Hunt | vs Broncos | $6,600 |
Saquon Barkley ranks fifth in opportunities per game (22.8), first in total yards per game (133.9), and third in total touchdowns (8). The Eagles are seven-point favorites, and Barkley gets to attack a brutally embarrassing Cowboys team and defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Bijan Robinson ranks 12th in opportunities per game (19.7) and sixth in total yards per game (103.9). The Falcons are 3.5-point favorites, and Robinson has a strong matchup against a free-falling Saints team and defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Alvin Kamara ranks third in opportunities per game (23.7), fourth in total yards per game (114.1), and seventh in total touchdowns (7). Kamara is essentially the only offensive weapon left with both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out. He'll be needed and has a matchup he can exploit at home against a Falcons defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Brian Robinson Jr is out for a second game in a row, and Austin Ekeler is priced at just $5,800, making him a cash game lock. Ekeler saw a season-high 15 opportunities last week, is a dual-threat in the passing game, and the Commanders are three-point home favorites.
Kareem Hunt has been a massive in-season addition for the Chiefs. He ranks second in the entire NFL in opportunities per game (23.8) and 15th in total yards per game (93). He's scored five touchdowns in his past four games. The Chiefs are 8.5-point home favorites.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Shakir | at Colts | $6,000 |
| 2 | Ladd McConkey | vs Titans | $5,900 |
| 3 | Darnell Mooney | at Saints | $6,500 |
| 4 | Josh Downs | vs Bills | $6,200 |
| 5 | Parker Washington | vs Vikings | $3,900 |
Keon Coleman is out, and Amari Cooper is questionable. Khalil Shakir already leads this team in receptions (42) and receiving yards (471). He's a strong play in the favorable fantasy environment the dome in Indianapolis provides paired with Josh Allen who ranks sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and in an offense that ranks third in EPA/Play and ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE).
The Chargers' offensive philosophy has shifted extremely pass-heavy. Over their past four games, weeks 6-9, they rank fourth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Justin Herbert has averaged 286.8 passing yards per game over this four-game stretch, which would lead the entire NFL if over the full season. This is significant for their number one receiver, Ladd McConkey. He has seen six or more targets in seven of eight games.
Drake London is less than 100% and listed as questionable. Darnell Mooney has seen just two fewer targets than London this season. In fact, Mooney leads the Falcons in receiving yards (588). He's in a good spot against a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed. The Falcons have the seventh-highest Implied Team Total (25) of the week.
Josh Downs has seen nine or more targets in five of seven games this season. He's a cash game lock with Joe Flacco under center. The Colts are at home in the dome and are 4.5-point underdogs, which means they project to throw a lot in an environment with zero weather conditions. And Michael Pittman Jr is out due to injury.
Looking for a salary saver? Without Christian Kirk last week, Parker Washington played on 85% of the offensive snaps and saw six targets. He's priced at just $3,900.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | vs Broncos | $6,000 |
| 2 | Cade Otton | vs 49ers | $5,500 |
Travis Kelce's target totals over his past five games: 9, 10, 5, 12, and 16. He's caught 24 passes for 190 yards and 1 touchdown over his past two games. After a slow start, Kelce is full-on back. He's at home, and the Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites.
The injuries to Mike Evans and Chirs Godwin have propelled Cade Otton into a fantasy force. His past three games have been incredible: 8 for 100 on 10 targets, 9 for 81 and 2 touchdowns on 10 targets, and 8 for 77 and 1 touchdown on 11 targets. He's at home and will be needed once again as the Buccaneers are 5.5-point underdogs.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikings | at Jaguars | $3,700 |
| 2 | Chargers | vs Titans | $3,800 |
The Vikings have one of the best defenses in football. They rank second in EPA/Play Allowed and project to get to face off against pocket statue Mac Jones. Minnesota is favored by 4.5 points despite this one being in Jacksonville.
The Chargers are arguably the best defense in football. They lead the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed and get to tee off on Will Levis, who will be making his first start since Week 6. Levis ranks second in interception percentage (5.6%) behind only Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | at Cowboys | $7,800 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | at Buccaneers | $6,500 |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | at Cardinals | $5,700 |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | vs Titans | $5,200 |
| 5 | Caleb Williams | vs Patriots | $5,600 |
Jalen Hurts ranks third at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (23.4) and leads an Eagles offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play. He could go absolutely nuclear against a brutally embarrassing Cowboys team and defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Rostering players coming off their bye is a solid tournament strategy, thanks to recency bias generally driving their ownership levels down. Brock Purdy ranks fifth in passing yards per game (262.6), gets Christian McCaffrey back, and has a fantastic matchup against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Aaron Rodgers completed 68.8% of his passes and threw three touchdown passes last week as things seemed to be coming together for their passing offense in real time. Rodgers ranks ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7) and leads a Jets offense that ranks seventh in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and sixth in Pas Rate Over Expected (PROE). There is upside here at low ownership in a good matchup against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Chargers' offensive philosophy has shifted extremely pass-heavy. Over their past four games, weeks 6-9, they rank fourth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Justin Herbert has averaged 286.8 passing yards per game over this four-game stretch, which would lead the entire NFL if over the full season. The majority of your competition doesn't realize this, making Herbert an exciting tournament play at projected low ownership.
Caleb Williams has had a disappointing season and performed putridly last week. He'll be low-owned, which is intriguing since he's at home in a great spot against a Patriots defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dopback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breece Hall | at Cardinals | $7,600 |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | at Buccaneers | $8,000 |
| 3 | Aaron Jones | at Jaguars | $6,700 |
| 4 | James Conner | vs Jets | $6,500 |
| 5 | D'Andre Swift | vs Patriots | $6,500 |
| 6 | Jonathan Taylor | vs Bills | $7,500 |
Breece Hall has only scored one touchdown over his past six games. Recency bias will keep his ownership down but this is a good spot against a vulnerable Cardinals defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed. He'll get plenty of chances to exploit this spot as Hall ranks 13th in opportunities per game (19.6) and without Allen Lazard and Mike Williams, could see additional targets coming his way.
At long last, Christian McCaffrey is back. This is not a player you "wait and see" before playing him. You roster him immediately to get out in front of some of your competition in tournaments. McCaffrey ranked second in opportunities per game (22.2), first in total yards per game (126.4), and first in total touchdowns (21). In case you a reminder, McCaffrey is this generation's LaDainian Tomlinson. McCaffrey returns to a great matchup against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Aaron Jones ranks 14th in opportunities per game (19.3) and eighth in total yards per game (101.3) and plays in a Vikings offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play. The Vikings are 4.5-point favorites and have the fifth-highest Implied Team Total (26) of the week. The Jaguars defense ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed.
James Conner has run for over 100 yards or scored a touchdown in three straight games. He ranks 16th in opportunities per game (19.1) and 17th in total yards per game (92.3). He's at home against a Jets defense that only ranks 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.
D'Andre Swift ranks 14th in opportunities per game (19.3) and 19th in total yards per game (91.1). After a slow start, he's having a strong season and is in a good spot to keep it going on Sunday. The Bears are 6.5-point home favorites, and the Patriots defense ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Jonathan Taylor ranks eighth in opportunities per game (20.2) and ninth in total yards per game (100.3). He's been one of the best fantasy running backs when healthy and active and is playing at home. Yet, he'll be low owned due to the tough projected matchup against the Bills, making him a strong tournament play from a process standpoint.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Jefferson | at Jaguars | $8,800 |
| 2 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | at Buccaneers | $6,900 |
| 3 | A.J. Brown | at Cowboys | $8,200 |
| 4 | Davante Adams | at Cardinals | $7,000 |
| 5 | Garrett Wilson | at Cardinals | $7,200 |
| 6 | Jauan Jennings | at Buccaneers | $5,100 |
| 7 | Jordan Addison | at Jaguars | $5,300 |
Justin Jefferson ranks second in receiving yards per game (97.9) and leads a Vikings offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, eighth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). This could be a nuclear game for Jefferson against a Jaguars defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed. But this is also a matchup where secondary options like Jordan Addison can get home. Addison is healthy and caught all of his targets last week, including one for a touchdown.
Rostering players coming off their bye is a solid strategy in tournaments, thanks to recency bias generally driving their ownership levels down. Deebo Samuel Sr. is in a great spot here, and let's not forget Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season. Samuel gets a fantastic matchup against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed. He is listed as questionable, but we'll know his status before any games kick off since the 49ers are playing in the early window.
A.J. Brown ranks third in receiving yards per game (88.8) and could go absolutely nuclear against a brutally embarrassing Cowboys team and defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Allen Lazard is out due to injury, and Mike Williams has been traded. The target tree has completely narrowed to Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall. Adams and Wilson each saw double-digit targets and combined to see a 66% target share last week. Both are strong plays in a good matchup against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Jauan Jennings caught 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and 3 touchdowns back in Week 3 but suffered an injury a few weeks later. Jennings returns this week and hasn't yet played without Brandon Aiyuk, who has been lost for the season. Jennings will step right into a large role in a favorable spot against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kittle | at Buccaneers | $5,800 |
| 2 | Trey McBride | vs Jets | $5,700 |
| 3 | Dalton Kincaid | at Colts | $4,900 |
| 4 | Taysom Hill | vs Falcons | $4,000 |
George Kittle ranks at the tight end position: fifth in receptions (40), second in receiving yards (503), and first in receiving touchdowns (6). Kittle's upside remains high against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Trey McBride ranks at the tight end position: fourth in targets (56), third in receptions (45), and third in receiving yards (481). There aren't many additional data points to highlight his ceiling in this spot other than the fact he's been one of the best tight ends in all of fantasy football and is playing at home.
Keon Coleman is out and Amari Cooper is questionable. Dalton Kincaid has been boom-bust this season, frustrating fantasy managers everywhere. However, he does lead the Bills in targets (54) and has seen nine more than any teammate. One boom week is all we need and this looks like a fantastic time to play him in tournaments at low ownership. Don't forget the macro-level analysis: Kincaid is paired with Josh Allen who ranks sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and in an offense that ranks third in EPA/Play and ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE).
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are out and are massive absences for New Orleans' offense. Last week, Taysom Hill saw five targets and also received five carries. The dual-threat is priced at just $4,000 and is at home in a good spot against a Falcons defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcons | at Saints | $3,400 |
| 2 | Bills | at Colts | $3,200 |
| 3 | Eagles | at Cowboys | $3,500 |
The Saints are free-falling and their offense is without both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. The Falcons D/ST will be low owned, making them a tournament play, especially since D/ST is the toughest position to project.
The Joe Flacco experience didn't work out for the Colts last week and Michael Pittman Jr is out due to injury this week. The Bills are 4.5-point favorites and will get after the immobile Flacco.
The Cowboys are one of the worst teams in the NFL and will be without Dak Prescott. The Eagles are seven-point favorites and get to get after Cooper Rush.
Key Injuries
- Brian Robinson Jr OUT
- Upgrade Austin Ekeler
- Keon Coleman OUT and Amari Cooper Questionable
- Upgrade Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid
- Michael Pittman Jr OUT
- Upgrade Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell
- Brandon Aiyuk OUT
- Upgrade Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Jauan Jennings
- Allen Lazard OUT and Mike Williams Traded
- Upgrade Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall
- Dak Prescott OUT
- Upgrade Eagles D/ST
- Trevor Lawrence Questionable but reportedly is not expected to play
- Upgrade Vikings D/ST
- Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Cedrick Wilson Jr. all OUT
- Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill
- Christian Kirk OUT and both Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis Questionable
- Upgrade Brian Thomas Jr. and/or Gabe Davis if they are active as well as Parker Washington and Evan Engram
- Mike Evans and Chirs Godwin OUT
- Upgrade Cade Otton, Rachaad White, and Trey Palmer
- JuJu Smith-Schuster OUT
- Upgrade Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, and Xavier Worthy
- Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams both OUT
- Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill
- Deebo Samuel Sr. Questionable
- Drake London Questionable
- Gus Edwards Questionable
- Tyler Conklin Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Brock Purdy, Chirstian McCaffrey, and either Deebo Samuel Sr. or George Kittle
- Runback Option: Cade Otton
- Jalen Hurts and either A.J. Brown or both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
- Runback Options: CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson
- Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson and either Aaron Jones or Jordan Addison
- Runback Option: Parker Washington
- Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and either Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson
- Runback Options: James Conner, Trey McBride, or Marvin Harrison Jr..
- Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey
- Brock Purdy, Chirstian McCaffrey, and either Deebo Samuel Sr. or George Kittle
Flag Plant Cash Plays
Flag Plant Tournament Plays
