Cracking DraftKings: Week 7

Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders - Over/Under 51.5
• Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 47.5
• Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 47.5
• Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 50
• Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons - Over/Under 51

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Bills at home vs Titans - Implied Team Total 25
• Bengals on road vs Browns - Implied Team Total 24.3
• Rams at home vs Raiders  - Implied Team Total 25.3
• Colts at home vs Dolphins - Implied Team Total 23.3
• Eagles on road vs Giants - Implied Team Total 23

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ranks seventh at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (20), seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.7), and leads a Bills offense that ranks third in EPA/Play. The Bills are 8.5-point home favorites.

Jordan Love ranks second in passing yards per game (282.8) and first in pass touchdowns per game (3). He's been an absolute gunslinger when healthy this season and now gets to play at home in one of the best fantasy game environments of the week with a healthy 47.5 Over/Under.

C.J. Stroud ranks eighth in passing yards per game (262.8) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.7) and leads a Texans offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play, 11th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and 12th in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He's playing in one of the best fantasy game environments of the week with a healthy 47.5 Over/Under.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ranks fourth in both opportunities per game (21.6) and total yards per game (114.8). He ranks fifth in total touchdowns (5). The Eagles are three-point favorites.

Joe Mixon ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21) and second in total yards per game (120). He's in a favorable fantasy game against a Packers defense that ranks just 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Bijan Robinson ranks in the top twenty in opportunities per game (17.5) and total yards per game (90.2). The Falcons are three-point home favorites and this is a friendly fantasy game environment.

David Montgomery ranks fourth in total touchdowns (6) and has scored in every game this season. He's averaging 17 opportunities per game and 89 total yards per game. This Lions at Vikings game has the third-highest Over/Under (50) of the week.

Tyjae Spears is out which boosts Tony Pollard's workload projection. Pollard already ranks 12th in opportunities per game (19.4). The Bills can be had on the ground as their defense only ranks 21st in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson is questionable so his status must be monitored on Sunday morning. Johnson's target totals in four games with Andy Dalton: 14, 13, 6, and 10. That 10.75 targets per game average would rank fourth in the NFL if over the full six weeks. He's playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week against a Commanders defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

No Nico Collins continues to be huge news for both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Without Collins last week, Dell saw nine targets for a 29% target share and Diggs saw seven targets for a 22.6% target share. They're both strong talents playing in a Texans offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play, 11th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and 12th in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). And this is one of the best fantasy game environments of the week with a healthy 47.5 Over/Under.

Jayden Reed has seen at least six targets in every Jordan Love start this season and scored a touchdown in three of those four games. His receiving yards totals in Love's starts: 138, 139, 78, and 28. That's an average of 95.75 receiving yards per game and would rank fourth in the NFL if over the full six weeks. He gets to play at home in one of the best fantasy game environments of the week with a healthy 47.5 Over/Under.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable, so his status must be monitored on Sunday. But if he's active, he sure looks like the main beneficiary outside of Travis Kelce of the Rashee Rice injury. Smith-Schuster is familiar with the offense as he played in Kansas City in 2022 and caught 7 of 8 targets for 130 yards in Week 5 before the Chiefs' Week 6 bye. He's priced at just $4,000.

Davante Adams has been traded to the Jets and Jakobi Meyers is doubtful. Outside of Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker looks to have a massive opportunity in this one as the de-facto wide receiver one. The matchup is phenomenal against a Rams defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Rashee Rice was injured early in Week 4. Travis Kelce's stats in Weeks 4 and 5 prior to Kansas City's Week 6 bye: Caught 7 of 9 targets for 89 yards and caught 9 of 10 targets for 70 yards. Kelce is once again the alpha receiver in Kansas City.

Davante Adams has been traded to the Jets and Jakobi Meyers is doubtful. Brock Bowers gets a boost and he already leads all tight ends in targets (46), receptions (37), and receiving yards (384). The matchup is phenomenal against a Rams defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

George Kittle missed a game due to injury and he still ranks at the tight end position: third in targets (35), second in receptions (28), fourth in receiving yards (283), and first in receiving touchdowns (5). He'll be needed in this Super Bowl rematch and favorable fantasy game.

Amari Cooper has been traded, immediately vaulting David Njoku up to the clear-cut alpha receiving weapon in Cleveland. How much that matters while the putrid Deshaun Watson remains under center remains to be seen but Njoku is in a good spot here at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Colby Parkison's target totals in his last two games: 7 and 13. He's priced at just $3,800. His quarterback and his offense rank top 12 in all these categories: passing yards per game, EDPF, and PROE.

Team Defenses

Will Levis leads the NFL in interceptions thrown (7) and the Bills are 8.5-point home favorites.

Deshaun Watson simply isn't an NFL quarterback. Streaming defenses against him has been a gold mine. Watson leads the league in sacks taken (31). He's been sacked 11 more times than any other quarterback in the NFL.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels ranks fourth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.7) and leads a Commanders offense that ranks first in EPA/Play and seventh in PROE. He's at home in the dream spot against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. This game has the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week.

The Bengals lead the NFL in PROE and EDPF. Joe Burrow is putting this offense on his back and ranks seventh in pass yards per game (263) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2). The Bengals offense ranks sixth in EPA/Play. With Deshaun Watson playing untenable football, Burrow will have the ball early and often against a Browns defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed, increasing his chances of hitting his ceiling outcome.

There is still a false narrative out there by non-ball knowers that Brock Purdy isn't a good quarterback, which keeps the window open to winning DFS tournaments with him. Purdy is one of the best quarterbacks in the league as his mental processing of the game is up there with the elites. Purdy ranks third in passing yards per game (271.5) and 12th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5), leading a 49ers offense that ranks ninth in EPA/Play and 12th in PROE. He's the home quarterback in a great fantasy environment against Patrick Mahomes II. 

Kirk Cousins ranks fifth in passing yards per game (266.3) and 12th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5), leading a Falcons offense that ranks 12th in EPA/Play, ninth in EDPF, and 12th in PROE. He's at home in the dome in a good spot against a banged-up Seahawks defense that only ranks 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. This game has the second-highest Over/Under (51) of the week.

Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards per game (296.3) and is quarterbacking a Seahawks offense that ranks third in EDPF and fourth in PROE. He's playing in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (51) of the week against a Falcons defense that ranks 23rd in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Atlanta's starting Safety, Justin Simmons, is questionable.

Andy Dalton is priced at just $5,200 yet is playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week against a Commanders defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Dalton ranks sixth in the league in pass touchdowns per game (1.8) over his four starts this year.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams ranks third in opportunities per game (22) and second in total touchdowns (7). The Rams are seven-point home favorites so game script projects to work in Williams' favor. Either way, he gets to attack a bad Raiders defense that only ranks 26th in Rush EPA Allowed.

The masses don't realize how elite of a fantasy asset Chuba Hubbard is right now. In Andy Dalton's four starts, Hubbard is averaging 22.3 opportunities per game (Would rank third) and 122 total yards per game (Would rank second). Hubbard is playing in the best fantasy game of the week and gets a Commanders defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed.

The Bengals lead the NFL in PROE and EDPF and Chase Brown is the team's running back that suits that pass-happy play style more than Zack Moss. Brown has scored four touchdowns over the past three games and gets to attack a bad Browns defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Ken Walker III is joining elite fantasy football running back status this season. He ranks 15th in opportunities per game (18.8), 17th in total yards per game (92.5), and fifth in total touchdowns (5). This game has the second-highest Over/Under (51) of the week and Walker gets to go after a Falcons defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Don't look now but Kareem Hunt ranks second in the NFL in opportunities per game (22.5) and tenth in total yards per game (101). I did not see this coming but we must adjust our priors quickly to stay ahead of the field or at least keep up with it. This is a very intriguing Super Bowl rematch and Hunt will take on a 49ers defense that only ranks 18th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Josh Jacobs ranks tenth in opportunities per game (20.3) and 15th in total yards per game (94.2). That's great right!? The problem is he's only scored one time this season. Because of this, he's viewed as a boring option. Time to pounce in tournaments. Jacobs will be low-owned in this perceived tough matchup but the Packers are at home and have one of the best offenses in football. Jacobs offers multi-touchdown upside weekly in this offense and if/when it hits, it could be a tournament difference-maker.

The Vikings are undefeated and their defense ranks first in EPA/Play Allowed and second in Rush EPA Allowed. David Montgomery has been amazing this season but this tough matchup could force Ben Johnson to utilize Jahmyr Gibbs' supreme athletic traits more. If that does come to fruition, the dual-threat Gibbs could be a low-owned terror in one of the best fantasy games of the weekend. And it's not like Gibbs has been disappointing this season. He's averaging a solid 16.8 opportunities per game and ranks 19th in total yards per game (90.4).

Brian Robinson Jr. is questionable after only getting in limited practice sessions all week. Even if he plays, Austin Ekeler still looks like a fantastic tournament option and if Robinson sits then it's wheels up. Ekeler is a dual-threat playing at home in the best fantasy game of the week against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. Ekeler saw 14 opportunities last week without Robinson and there is room for that to improve. Don't overthink this one. Let your opponents do that.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp is legitimately questionable so his status must be monitored but if he's active, he immediately becomes one of the best tournament plays of the season. Puka Nacua remains out and Kupp caught 14 of 21!!!! targets for 110 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 1, his only healthy game this season. Kupp offers tournament-winning upside but will come in low owned due to recency bias, performance fears returning from injury, and people ignoring him because his status has been up in the air all week. 

The Bengals lead the NFL in PROE and EDPF. Joe Burrow is putting this offense on his back and ranks seventh in pass yards per game (263) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2). The Bengals offense ranks sixth in EPA/Play. With Deshaun Watson playing untenable football, Burrow will have the ball early and often against a Browns defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed, increasing his chances of hitting his ceiling outcome. This is all great news for Ja'Marr Chase, who ranks 12th in receiving yards per game (79.8).

Justin Jefferson ranks third in receiving yards per game (98) despite the Vikings being undefeated and not being pushed in many games yet this season. Look for that to change on Sunday as Minnesota must face arguably the class of the entire NFC, the Detroit Lions. This game projects to be competitive and high-scoring as it has the third-highest Over/Under (50) of the week. But don't forget about Jordan Addison either. Addison put up 79 total yards and 2 total touchdowns in his return from injury and then saw eight targets in the next game right before Minnesota's bye. Addison will be overlooked but also offers upside in this spot.

Drake London ranks ninth in targets per game (9) and has seen double-digit targets in three straight contests. Kirk Cousins continues to knock off the rust and get more familiar with the Falcons' offense. London is at home in the dome in a good spot against a banged-up Seahawks defense that only ranks 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. This game has the second-highest Over/Under (51) of the week. And then there's Darnell Mooney who could also thrive in this spot. Just two games ago he caught 9 of 16 targets for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns.  

A.J. Brown ranks fifth in targets per game (9.5) and first in receiving yards per game (117.5). He's an absolute alpha. Dallas Goedert is out, which should funnel even more targets his way against an average Giants defense.

The Lions have been so good this season Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn't always been needed. Look for that to change in this competitive NFC North match against the undefeated Minnesota Vikings. Want a reminder of St. Brown's elite ceiling? Just go back to Week 2 when the Lions played from behind and lost to the Buccaneers. St. Brown saw 18!! targets in that one, catching 11 passes for 119 yards. Oh by the way he's caught a touchdown in three straight games.

Jayden Daniels leads a Commanders offense that ranks first in EPA/Play and seventh in PROE. And Terry McLaurin is his clear-cut alpha as he's seen 14 more targets than anyone else on the team. This is a great spot for ceiling outcome possibilities at home against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. This game has the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week.

Malik Nabers is off the injury report and will return after missing two games due to a concussion. Nabers will be a good litmus test as historically, players returning from injury and the absences they cause almost always are lower owned than they otherwise would be due to recency bias and injury fears. Either way, Nabers is a fantastic play. He ranks second in targets per game (13) and third in receiving yards per game (96.5) and plays at home against an Eagles defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

DK Metcalf ranks ninth in targets per game (9) and seventh in receiving yards per game (78.2). His quarterback, Geno Smith, leads the NFL in passing yards per game (296.3) and the Seahawks offense ranks third in EDPF and fourth in PROE. Metcalf plays in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (51) of the week against a Falcons defense that ranks 23rd in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Atlanta's starting Safety, Justin Simmons, is questionable.

Jauan Jennings is out. Deebo Samuel Sr. had the big game last week. Brandon Aiyuk has only had one big game so far this season but it was just two games ago where he caught 8 of 12 targets for 147 yards. This is a process play where we can roster an extremely talented player in one of the league's best offenses at low ownership in a competitive and favorable fantasy game.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft had a quiet game last week, which should push his ownership percentages down. That's great. Luke Musgrave is on Injured Reserve and Dontayvion Wicks is questionable with a shoulder injury. Kraft is a talented player paired with a quarterback in Jordan Love who ranks second in passing yards per game (282.8) and first in pass touchdowns per game (3). Kraft plays at home in one of the best fantasy game environments of the week with a healthy 47.5 Over/Under.

Sam LaPorta only saw one target last week as the Lions completely dismantled Dallas. But he showed his talent on that one catch, taking it 52 yards for a touchdown. LaPorta will be low-owned but offers upside as he'll be needed more in this competitive NFC North match against the undefeated Minnesota Vikings.

Dalton Kincaid is completely overlooked at this point, especially with the new addition of Amari Cooper. That makes him an intriguing tournament play at low ownership. He's still a talented player paired with Josh Allen. He's seen consistent target totals of 7, 6, and 7 over the past three weeks. The touchdown upside is there. It hasn't all come together in a game yet this season but it's only a matter of time.

Without Nico Collins last week Dalton Schultz saw a season-high eight targets. That volume didn't result in a big game, which will keep his ownership down. But a similar target total in this favorable fantasy game against the Packers could result in a low-owned spike week.

Team Defenses

Tua Tagovialoa will miss one more game, putting Tyler Huntley in line to start again. In two starts this season Huntley has thrown zero touchdown passes, thrown one interception, and been sacked five times. The Colts are three-point home favorites.

The Commanders have a bad defense on paper but they are aided by an awesome offense. Washington has a 4-2 record and are 7.5-point home favorites against Andy Dalton, who could lay an egg at any given time.

Key Injuries

• Nico Collins and Robert Woods both OUT
  • Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Xavier Hutchinson
• Rashee Rice OUT
  • Upgrade Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and Noah Gray
• Jonathan Taylor OUT
  • Upgrade Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson
• Davante Adams Traded and Jakobi Meyers Doubtful
  • Upgrade Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker
• Amari Cooper Traded
  • Upgrade David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman 
• Dallas Goedert OUT
  • Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
• Jerome Ford OUT
  • Upgrade Nick Chubb who is projected to make his season debut despite being listed as Questionable
• Tyjae Spears OUT
  • Upgrade Tony Pollard
• Jauan Jennings OUT
  • Upgrade Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall
• Adam Thielen OUT and Diontae Johnson Questionable
  • Upgrade Diontae Johnson (If he plays), Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and Jonathan Mingo
• Luke Musgrave OUT
  • Upgrade Tucker Kraft
• Tua Tagovailoa OUT
  • Upgrade Colts D/ST
• Cooper Kupp Questionable
  • Upgrade Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Colby Parkinson if Kupp doesn't play
• Brian Robinson Jr. Questionable
  • Upgrade Austin Ekeler if Robinson doesn't play
• JuJu Smith-Schuster Questionable but Andy Reid indicated he will play
  • Monitor Sunday morning
• Aaron Jones Questionable
  • Upgrade Ty Chandler if Jones doesn't play
• Dontayvion Wicks Questionable
  • Upgrade Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson if Wicks doesn't play
• Ray Davis Questionable
  • Upgrade James Cook if Davis doesn't play
• Zamir White Questionable
  • Upgrade Alexander Mattison if White sits
• Michael Pittman Jr, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce are all Questionable
  • Monitor this situation Sunday morning
• T.J. Hockenson Questionable
  • Upgrade Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison if Hockenson doesn't play

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin
  • Runback Options: Chuba Hubbard or Diontae Johnson (If he plays)
• Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and/or Tee Higgins
  • Runback Option: David Njoku
• Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, and/or Deebo Samuel Sr. or George Kittle
  • Runback Options: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, or JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Kirk Cousins and Drake London or Darnell Mooney
  • Runback Options: Ken Walker III and/or DK Metcalf or Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • Runback Options: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, or Darnell Mooney

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Saquon Barkley
• Tank Dell
• Tre Tucker
• David Njoku

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Kyren Williams
• Cooper Kupp (If he plays)
• Ja'Marr Chase
• Malik Nabers