Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 52.5
• Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 52.5
• Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 49.5
• Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers - Over/Under 47.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Eagles at home vs Browns - Implied Team Total 26
• Texans on road vs Patriots - Implied Team Total 22.3

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud ranks fourth in passing yards per game (277), 12th in passing yards per game (1.4), and leads a Texans offense that ranks 13th in EPA/Play. He has a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards and 4 touchdowns last week and now gets a Panthers defense that literally ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Andy Dalton provides salary savings, ranks seventh in touchdown passes per game (1.6), and is in a good spot at home against a Falcons defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ranks fifth in opportunities per game (22), first in total yards per game (130), and fourth in total touchdowns (5). The Eagles are 8.5-point home favorites, and Barkley gets a Browns defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Derrick Henry ranks eighth in opportunities per game (20.6), second in total yards per game (124.2), and first in total touchdowns (7). Commanders at Ravens is tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week and Henry gets a Commanders defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed.

The absence of Derek Carr likely propels the Saints to lean more heavily on Alvin Kamara this week. He already ranks first in opportunities per game (23.8), third in total yards per game (120.4), and third in total touchdowns (6). Kamara is at home against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed.

David Montgomery ranks 18th in opportunities per game (18) and gets to attack a banged-up and struggling Cowboys defense that will be without both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence and that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.

James Conner ranks 14th in opportunities per game (18.6), Cardinals at Packers has the third highest Over/Under (49.5) of the week, and Conner gets an average Packers run defense that ranks 18th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Rico Dowdle provides some salary savings and is coming off a game where he saw 22 opportunities and turned them into 114 total yards and 1 touchdown. Dowdle's role as the lead back in Dallas' offense is growing and despite the tough matchup, he's at home in a game tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week.

Wide Receivers

Drake London ranks 13th in targets per game (8.8) and has a 25% target share on the year. He's in a great spot against a Panthers defense that literally ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. And then there is Darnell Mooney, who is coming off a game where he caught 9 of 16 targets for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mooney has just four fewer targets than London on the year.

The absence of Nico Collins is massive, as he ranks tenth in targets per game (9) and second in receiving yards per game (113.4). Boost Stefon Diggs, who already ranks 18th in targets per game (8.2) and projects to see an increase in volume. He's in a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Diontae Johnson is averaging 11 targets per game in Andy Dalton's three starts. That would rank fourth-most over the full first five weeks of the season. Johnson is in a solid spot to take advantage of his volume at home against a Falcons defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Josh Downs has seen target totals of 9 and 12 over his past two games, and Michael Pittman Jr is now out due to injury. Downs projects to see close to double-digit targets and is priced at just $5,500.

Jakobi Meyers has seen target totals of 9, 10, and 9 over the past three weeks and Davante Adams remains out of the lineup. Like Josh Downs, Meyers is also a strong volume play in cash priced at just $5,400.

Brandin Cooks remains out and the fantasy environment around this 52.5 Over/Under is one that projects to boost the value of secondary and tertiary pass-catchers. Jalen Tolbert is Dak Prescott's clear wide receiver two and is coming off a game where he caught 7 of 10 targets for 87 yards and 1 touchdown. He's affordably priced as well.

Tight Ends

Despite missing a game due to injury, Jake Ferguson still ranks fourth in targets (30), fifth in receptions (22), and third in receiving yards (229) at the tight end position. Brandin Cooks is out, and the fantasy environment is incredible here, with a week-high 52.5-point Over/Under.

Luke Musgrave is out due to injury so Tucker Kraft will continue what he's done all season, dominating the tight end snaps in Green Bay. Kraft has 10 receptions for 141 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past two weeks and is in a great spot here at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

The Texans are seven-point favorites against Drake Maye in his first NFL start. Maye has the tough task of learning on the job behind one of the league's worst offensive lines. Meanwhile, the Texans have the eighth most sacks (15) in the NFL.

The Raiders offense is struggling, so they've made a quarterback change. Aidan O'Connell won't have the luxury of throwing to Davante Adams, who remains out. The Steelers are three-point favorites, and the Raiders have the third-lowest Implied Team Total (16.8) of the week.

The Broncos defense is menacing right now. They rank third in EPA/Play Allowed, Dropback EPA Allowed, and sacks (19). They're just $3,200 at home against a middling Chargers offense.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson leads all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (26.9), ranks sixth in touchdown passes per game (1.8), and leads a Ravens offense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play. The dual-threat does it all and is in an incredible spot to hit his ceiling outcome for the second week in a row. Commanders at Ravens is tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week, and Jackson is at home against a Commanders defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jayden Daniels ranks second out of all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (23.1) and leads the number one ranked offense in the league per EPA/Play. Commanders at Ravens is tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week, and Daniels has a great matchup against a Ravens defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

It's a solid tournament strategy to target players coming off a bye because they haven't played in two weeks and recency bias creeps into our minds. Lions at Cowboys is tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week, making Jared Goff a strong post-bye target. Goff ranks ninth in passing yards per game (253.8) and leads a Lions offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play. He has a chance to reach his ceiling outcome in a shootout against a Cowboys defense that will be without both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence and that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Dak Prescott is the home quarterback in this projected shootout and ranks third in passing yards per game (284.8), seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.6), and leads a Cowboys offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play. Prescott's matchup on paper isn't as ideal as Jared Goff's, but the Lions pass defense ranks middle of the pack (17th) in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Cardinals at Packers has the third highest Over/Under (49.5) of the week and Jordan Love is the home quarterback against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Love ranks second in passing yards per game (291) and first in pass touchdowns per game (2.7).

Jalen Hurts' fantasy production so far this season hasn't been what we've come to expect. But coming off the bye, he gets a healthy A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back and gets to play at home against a Browns defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Deshaun Watson is playing unwatchable football and the Eagles are 8.5-point home favorites. The Eagles offense should control the time of possession, allowing Hurts to rack up fantasy points.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson has struggled this season, to put it simply. But he still ranks 20th in the entire NFL in opportunities per game (17.2), the Falcons are six-point favorites, and Robinson has an amazing get-right spot against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed. Don't overreact to five weeks and take advantage of this beautiful spot. But just know the entirety of your lineup will need to have some uniqueness to it as Robinson projects to be pretty heavily owned with many others thinking just like us here.

Josh Jacobs ranks 10th in opportunities per game (20.2) yet his production has been more stable than elite. That will keep his tournament roster percentages down despite a favorable matchup and game environment. The Packers are five-point home favorites in the game with the third highest Over/Under (49.5) of the week and Jacobs gets a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.

This feels like a rocket ship blast-off week for the dual-threat and talented Jahmyr Gibbs. He's playing in a contest tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week and gets to attack a banged-up and struggling Cowboys defense that will be without both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence and that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed. Gibbs averages 16.8 opportunities per game and 90.3 total yards per game. That usage and production are more than enough to get home in this fantastic fantasy environment.

Chuba Hubbard is averaging 21.7 opportunities per game and 128.3 total yards per game in Andy Dalton's three starts this season. Those ranks over the full first five weeks would be seventh and second, respectively. Hubbard is a total fantasy stud right now, but many don't see it that way, keeping his ownership percentages down in tournaments. Take advantage. Hubbard is at home in a good spot against a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.

You have to think outside the box to take down a tournament, especially a large-field one. We want exposure to Commanders at Ravens as it is tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week, but we know everyone else wants exposure to this one as well. So we need to get a little creative. Austin Ekeler is talented and playing well this season. He showed no signs of being limited returning from his concussion in Week 4, even ripping off a 50-yard run. He's a dual-threat and arguably the Commanders' wide receiver two who has efficiently caught all 11 of his targets this season. Plus, Brian Robinson Jr. is banged up and only received seven carries last week. This is the kind of low-owned play you'll remember forever if Ekeler hits his ceiling outcome.

Wide Receivers

Lions at Cowboys is tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week and we have two superstar receivers going at it in Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb. St. Brown ranks sixth in targets per game (9.5) and Lamb ranks 11th in receiving yards per game (75.6). There is a lot to like about both players and both can be rostered as a game stack. If choosing one, go with St. Brown in the more favorable matchup against a Cowboys defense missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, which only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

A.J. Brown put up 119 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 1 before missing time with a hamstring injury. Brown is back this week, having had a month plus to heal up. Brown is in a good spot at home against a Browns defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Deshaun Watson is playing unwatchable football, and the Eagles are 8.5-point home favorites. The Eagles offense should control time of possession, allowing Brown to do his thing. And players returning from extended absences like this are almost always lower owned than they otherwise would be due to recency bias.

We want exposure to Commanders at Ravens as it is tied for the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week. Terry McLaurin has seen 12 more targets and has 143 more receiving yards than any other Commander this season. McLaurin caught a 55-yarder three weeks ago and a 66-yarder last week. McLaurin offers a high floor and a sky-high ceiling in this awesome fantasy environment against a Ravens defense that only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jayden Reed's stats in Jordan Love's three starts this season: 4 catches for 138 yards and 1 touchdown plus a 33-yard rushing touchdown, 7 catches for 139 yards and 1 touchdown, and 4 catches for 78 yards. Reed has been one of the best and most efficient receivers this season as he ranks third in yards per route run (3.14). Reed is in a great spot here at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jameson Williams' average depth of target this season (14.2) ranks 17th highest, tied with Justin Jefferson. Williams has electrifying speed, is getting targeted down the field, and is playing in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Cowboys defense missing both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

A.J. Brown's return will have no one thinking about DeVonta Smith. That makes him an intriguing low-owned tournament option who, thanks to recency bias, was going to go overlooked anyway after missing Week 4 with a concussion and being out on bye in Week 5. Smith has seen target totals of 8, 10, and 10 this season and is a supremely talented player in his own right.

The absence of Nico Collins is massive as he ranks tenth in targets per game (9) and second in receiving yards per game (113.4). This propels Tank Dell into a strong tournament play despite the poor start. In fact, we have that poor start to thank for keeping his ownership percentages down this weekend. Dell proved he's a good NFL player last season. He only played over 50% of the offensive snaps in eight contests. In those games, he averaged 8.4 targets, 5.1 receptions, 77.3 receiving yards, and caught all 7 of his touchdowns. That 8.4 target average would've ranked 17th, and the 77.3 receiving yard average ranked 14th over the full NFL season. Many have speculated Dell doesn't look like the same player this season after breaking his leg last year and being shot in the offseason. Even if true, Dell has now had a month plus of games and practices to work his way back into the shape that made him a fantasy darling in 2023.

Dontayvion Wicks is a classic flop lag play in Week 6. Those who weren't already excited about his potential due to his elite efficiency in 2023 hopped on the train in Week 5 after Wicks put his talent on display in Week 4, catching 5 of 13 targets for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. They were let down as Wicks only caught two passes for 20 yards. Despite the poor statistical outing, Wicks still led the Packers in target share (27%). This is a fun fantasy spot for that target share to turn right back into fantasy points at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

The Ravens have been pushed in three games this season. Zay Flowers' stats in those contests: 6 for 37 on 10 targets, 7 for 91 and 1 touchdown on 11 targets, and 7 for 111 on 12 targets. Flowers is the Ravens' clear alpha receiver and will continue to make the most of his chances in competitive games and fantasy environments. This looks like an amazing spot for Flowers in a 52.5 Over/Under at home against a Commanders defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride returned from his concussion in Week 5 to catch 6 of 9 targets for 53 yards. Nine targets is a healthy amount of passing volume for any tight end, let alone one as talented as McBride. Don't overreact to McBride not posting a huge fantasy day yet. It's only been four games.

Sam LaPorta caught all four of his targets for 53 yards in Week 4, showing signs of life before the Lions Week 5 bye. LaPorta hasn't produced yet this season so expect his ownership percentages to come in low. This a situation to jump all over. Roster one of the most talented tight ends in the league in a fantastic spot against a Cowboys defense missing both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Brock Bowers leads all tight ends in targets (35), receptions (28), and receiving yards (313). But his $6,000 price tag is expensive and the matchup isn't ideal to the point where Bowers likely comes in low owned. This is a bet on talent tournament play.

Dalton Schultz has seen target totals of 5, 5, and 6 over his past three games and now projects to see even higher target volume with Nico Collins out. Schultz is tied to C.J. Stroud who ranks fourth in passing yards per game (277) and has a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Drake Maye gets his first start this weekend and that provides a boost to the Patriots offense as a whole and Hunter Henry's projection. Henry leads the team in targets (25) yet is priced at just $3,800.

Team Defenses

Deshaun Watson can't play. He's awful. Take advantage and roster the opposing defense against him while you still can before he gets benched. The Eagles are 8.5-point home favorites. Watson leads the league in sacks taken (26).

With Derek Carr out, Spencer Rattler will make his first NFL start. That bodes well for the Buccaneers defense, which is priced at just $2,600, allowing salary flexibility elsewhere.

Key Injuries

• Nico Collins OUT
  • Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Xavier Hutchinson
• Jonathan Taylor OUT
  • Upgrade Trey Sermon
• Michael Pittman Jr OUT
  • Upgrade Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell
• Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave OUT
  • Upgrade Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, and Romeo Doubs
• Davante Adams OUT
  • Upgrade Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker
• Derek Carr OUT
  • Upgrade Buccaneers D/ST
• Brandin Cooks OUT
  • Upgrade CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Jalen Tolbert, and KaVontae Turpin
• Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence OUT
  • Upgrade Lions offense
• Adam Thielen OUT
  • Upgrade Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Jonathan Mingo

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews
  • Runback Options: Terry McLaurin and/or Austin Ekeler
• Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Austin Ekeler
  • Runback Options: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, or Mark Andrews
• Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jameson Williams or Sam LaPorta
  • Runback Options: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, or Jalen Tolbert
• Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks or Tucker Kraft
  • Runback Options: James Conner, Trey McBride, or Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and A.J. Brown

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Saquon Barkley
• Drake London
• Tucker Kraft

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Austin Ekeler
• Tank Dell
• Zay Flowers
• Sam LaPorta