Cracking DraftKings Week 5

Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans - Over/Under 47.5
• Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 50.5
• Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 48
• Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 49.5
• Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 46.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Commanders at home vs Browns - Implied Team Total 24
• Seahawks at home vs Giants - Implied Team Total 24.8
• Bears at home vs Panthers - Implied Team Total 22.8

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love ranks first in both passing yards per game (324.5) and pass touchdowns per game (3). He gets a Rams defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jayden Daniels ranks third in DraftKings scoring per game (23.7) at the quarterback position and leads a Commanders offense that ranks second in EPA/Play. He's at home against a Browns defense that isn't what it has been in recent years. They only rank 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Geno Smith is slinging it this season. He ranks second in passing yards per game (295.5) and the Seahawks lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expected. He's at home in a good spot against a Giants defense that only ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

The Bears offense certainly hasn't been humming to begin the season but it's important to note this is a fantastic spot for the first overall pick. Caleb Williams is at home against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Ken Walker III returned in prime time last week and showed the world how athletic he is while putting up 116 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Walker ranks second in opportunities per game (20) and ninth in total yards per game (112.5). The Seahawks are six-point home favorites and Walker gets a Giants defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Kyren Williams ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.8) and tied for first in total touchdowns (6). He's the leader of this offense while Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are out. Williams is at home against a Packers defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Chuba Hubbard's ranks in Andy Dalton's two starts: 24 opportunities per game and 145 total yards per game. Hubbard is a cash game lock priced at just $6,100 against a Bears defense that ranks 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.

D'Andre Swift saw 23 opportunities last week and turned them into 165 total yards and a touchdown. The Bears are 3.5-point home favorites and Swift gets a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.

The combination of Malik Nabers being ruled out and Devin Singletary being listed as doubtful is massive for Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s fantasy value. Tracy is the backup running back and a talented dual-threat. Tracy has played on over 20% of the offensive snaps in every game this season and projects for 10+ carries and 5+ targets in this one. He offers guaranteed volume at an affordable price for cash.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins ranks second in targets (43), second in receptions (30), and first in receiving yards (489). He has over 100 more receiving yards than the next closest player. According to Next Gen Stats, he has registered the fastest speed (21.89 miles per hour) as a ball carrier this season. Bills at Texans only has the fourth-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the week.

Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are both doubtful. Rocketships for both Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks in an incredible spot against a Rams defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Their quarterback, Jordan Love, ranks first in both passing yards per game (324.5) and pass touchdowns per game (3). Reed's stats in Love's two starts this season: 4 catches for 138 yards and 1 touchdown plus a 33-yard rushing touchdown and 7 catches for 139 yards and 1 touchdown. Reed also ranks third in yards per route run (3.17). Meanwhile, Wicks is talented and just turned 13 targets into 78 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.

Terry McLaurin has a 26.4% target share on a Commanders' offense that ranks second in EPA/Play. He's at home against a Browns defense that isn't what it has been in recent years. They only rank 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Diontae Johnson has seen a massive 35% target share in Andy Dalton's two starts. His total numbers in those games: 15 catches for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns. Somehow he's priced at just $6,100.

Malik Nabers leads the NFL in targets (52) and has seen a 35.9% target share. He's out this week. Wan'Dale Robinson ranks fourth in targets (38) and has seen a 26.2% target share in his own right. The Giants are six-point road underdogs, which means they project to be passing a lot. It would be surprising if Robinson didn't see double-digit targets this week.

DK Metcalf ranks seventh in targets (36), eighth in receptions (25), and third in receiving yards (366). He's at home in a good spot against a Giants defense that only ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Anthony Richardson is questionable. If he's ruled out then Josh Downs becomes a priority play priced at just $5,100. Joe Flacco can still get the ball in his receiver's hands and that's exactly what he did last week, helping Downs catch 8 of 9 targets for 82 yards and 1 touchdown. Downs is a perfect stylistic fit for who Flacco is as a quarterback at this stage of his career and the matchup is lovely against a Jaguars defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Davante Adams' absence clears the pathway for Jakobi Meyers to be the number-one wide receiver in Las Vegas. Meyers leads the team with a 20% target share and the Raiders project to have to throw as they're 2.5-point road underdogs.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft was a good prospect. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 254 pounds, he caught 65 passes for 773 yards and 6 touchdowns as a sophomore. What he's doing right now should not be a surprise. With Jordan Love back in the lineup and Green Bay's passing volume spiking, Kraft caught 6 of 9 targets for 53 yards and 1 touchdown last week. He's a cash game lock priced at just $3,500 against a Rams defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are doubtful and Luke Musgrave is questionable.

Erick All Jr. is a salary saver in cash. He has caught all four of his targets in three straight games and his role projects to grow as the season goes on. Joe Burrow projects to throw a lot in this one.

Colby Parkinson has seen at least five targets in three of four games and saw a season-high seven targets last week. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua remain out and Parkinson is at home against a Packers defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

The Broncos are 2.5-point home favorites, rank second in sacks (16), and have allowed 16 total points over their past two games. They're a cash lock surprisingly priced at just $2,900 against Gardner Minshew II without Davante Adams in the lineup.

The Seahawks are six-point home favorites against Daniel Jones who will be without Malik Nabers. Devin Singletary is doubtful as well. They rank fourth in the league in sacks (14).

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ranks second in DraftKings scoring per game (24.3) at the quarterback position and is playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) against a Bengals defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. Jackson will be popular but that doesn't mean you can't play him in tournaments. It just means you have to be more thoughtful about creating a unique lineup as a whole.

Bills at Texans only has the fourth-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the week but that is likely largely due to Buffalo's run-heavy approach to begin the season. C.J. Stroud can force the Bills into passing more by putting points on the board and if he does, this game has fantasy shootout potential. Stroud ranks sixth in passing yards per game (263.5), seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.5), and he leads a Texans offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play.

Josh Allen's upside is tantalizing when forced into shootouts and the potential is there in this one with C.J. Stroud projected to put up points on the other side. Allen ranks fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8), has run for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns already, and leads a Bills offense that ranks third in EPA/Play.

Joe Burrow is playing at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week. The 1-3 Bengals are already fighting for their playoff lives and this is a crucial divisional match against the rival Ravens. The offense will revolve around Burrow here just as it has all season. Burrow ranks ninth in passing yards per game (244.5), fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8), and leads a Bengals offense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play.

Brock Purdy is playing great. He ranks third in passing yards per game (282.5), 12th in pass touchdowns per game (1.3), and leads a 49ers offense that ranks ninth in EPA/Play. He has done this without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle have also missed time. The 49ers have an elite 28.5 Implied Team Total. If the touchdowns come through the air this week Purdy has the upside to throw for four touchdown passes. He's at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 29th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry's past two games: 53 opportunities for 383 total yards and 4 touchdowns. Henry ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.8), second in total yards per game (131.3), and tied for first in total touchdowns (6). Henry has a favorable matchup on tap in a projected high-scoring game against a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Rush EPA Allowed. Henry will be popular but that doesn't mean you can't play him in tournaments. It just means you have to be more thoughtful about creating a unique lineup as a whole.

Jordan Mason is a solid play in all formats but he's a tournament option this week as the excitement of him being a new and fun play starts to wear off. Mason ranks second in opportunities per game (24.5) and fourth in total yards per game (126). The 49ers are 7.5-point home favorites against a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed.

The Bills laid an egg last week in prime time against the Ravens, including a disappointing performance from James Cook. Don't give into recency bias. Cook is a strong play in the game with the fourth-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the week. And Khalil Shakir is out, which could lead to more targets for Cook in this projected high-scoring affair. 

Josh Jacobs ranks 11th in opportunities per game (20.3), and 14th in total yards per game (95.3). The Packers are three-point favorites against a Rams defense that only ranks 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. Jacobs has yet to find the end zone this year. He has positive touchdown regression coming!

The Broncos running game has been stuck in the mud this season but with Tyler Badie and Audric Estime out of this game, Sean Payton essentially has no choice but to keep utilizing Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. Williams is the preferred play. He has seen 54 opportunities compared to McLaughlin's 34 chances. The Broncos are 2.5-point home favorites and Williams gets a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed. And we can confidently say he is going to be very low-owned.

Wide Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase is playing at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week. The 1-3 Bengals are already fighting for their playoff lives and this is a crucial divisional match against the rival Ravens. Chase ranks just 38th in targets (24) but tenth in receiving yards (300), showing how electric he can be on a per-touch basis. His target high in a game this season so far is only seven. Don't be surprised to see that get blown out of the water in this spot.

The narrative is out there: All the Ravens do is run the ball now. That makes it the perfect time to play Zay Flowers in tournaments, who will be low-owned due to the narrative and his low production of only six targets for 4 receptions and 30 yards over the past two weeks. Flowers is a strong process play in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) against a Bengals defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

The Colts have struggled defending perimeter receivers this season, even allowing 6 catches for 112 yards and 1 touchdown to Rome Odunze. This is a great spot for Brian Thomas Jr. who is at home and ranks 14th in receiving yards (275). He's been winning at will. Now we just need Trevor Lawrence to throw accurate balls downfield.

Bills at Texans has the fourth-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the week and C.J. Stroud will be slinging it at home. Yet, Tank Dell is a complete afterthought after disappointing the first three weeks and missing last week due to injury, making him a strong tournament process play. Dell proved he's a good NFL player last season. He only played on over 50% of the offensive snaps in eight contests. In those games, he averaged 8.4 targets, 5.1 receptions, 77.3 receiving yards, and caught all 7 of his touchdowns. That 8.4 target average would've ranked 17th, and the 77.3 receiving yard average ranked 14th over the full NFL season.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua remain out and Jordan Whittington's playing time spiked to 97% of snaps last week. He saw 8 targets for a 27.6% target share and caught 6 for 62 yards. Whittington is running similar routes to what we saw from Nacua last season. He's priced at just $4,600 at home against a Packers defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

The 49ers have an elite 28.5 Implied Team Total. Both Deebo Samuel Sr. and Brandon Aiyuk are strong tournament plays at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 29th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Aiyuk is an especially fun play as he's now had four games to shake off the rust of essentially not having a training camp. Things should start picking up for him soon and we want to get out in front of that in order to beat our competition.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a talented player in a great passing environment. Geno Smith ranks second in passing yards per game (295.5) and the Seahawks lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expected. Smith-Njigba has seen games with target totals of 16 and 12 this season and is at home in a good spot against a Giants defense that only ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

It hasn't all come together for Caleb Williams and DJ Moore yet but we know how talented this duo is. This is a bet on talent in a great matchup play as Moore is at home against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Players returning from injury are generally lower owned than they otherwise would be due to recency bias. Enter Trey McBride who returns this week after his one-week absence due to a concussion. McBride has seen 15 targets in his two full games of action and gets an average 49ers pass defense that ranks 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed. The Cardinals project to operate in a pass-heavy game script as they're 7.5-point road underdogs.

The 49ers have an elite 28.5 Implied Team Total. George Kittle offers weekly upside and this spot is no different at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 29th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Brock Bowers has had two down games in a row and is on the road against a tough projected matchup. Time to go right back to him in tournaments. Davante Adams is out and Bowers is an extremely talented player. Bowers ranks at the tight end position: tied for second in targets (23), second in receptions (20), and second in receiving yards (216).

Khalil Shakir's absence this week due to injury is extremely intriguing for the prospects of Dalton Kincaid. Josh Allen's upside is tantalizing when forced into shootouts and the potential is there in this one with C.J. Stroud projected to put up points on the other side. More passing from Allen could lead to a big day for Kincaid who is the clear favorite for targets in the pecking order this week over Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins.

Mark Andrews hasn't caught a pass in two weeks but the panic has been over exacerbated. All Baltimore's passing and receiving stats have been down with Derrick Henry dominating on the ground. A similar game script could play out in this one but if it doesn't in a competitive road game against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, it would not be shocking to see Andrews post a solid receiving line.

Team Defenses

The Commanders have a questionable defense but they don't have a questionable team. Washington sits at 3-1 and atop the NFC East. They're 3.5-point home favorites and get to face off against the struggling Deshaun Watson.

The Patriots are one-point home favorites against Tyler Huntley and a Dolphins offense that only mustered 184 total yards in Huntley's debut last week.

Andy Dalton is playing well but the Bears are 3.5-point home favorites. And here's the thing. They have a good defense. Chicago ranks sixth in EPA/Play Allowed and second in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Key Injuries

• Christian McCaffrey OUT - Upgrade Jordan Mason
• Malik Nabers OUT - Upgrade Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt
• Jonathan Taylor OUT - Upgrade Trey Sermon
• Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both Doubtful - Upgrade Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft
• Anthony Richardson Questionable - Upgrade Colts pass catchers if he is ruled out
• Davante Adams and Michael Mayer both OUT - Upgrade Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker
• Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both OUT - Upgrade Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Colby Parkinson
• Khalil Shakir OUT - Upgrade Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, James Cook, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins
• Devin Singletary Doubtful - Upgrade Tyrone Tracy Jr.
• Zamir White Doubtful - Upgrade Alexander Mattison
• Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both OUT - Upgrade Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale
• Adam Thielen OUT - Upgrade Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Jonathan Mingo
• Tyler Badie OUT - Upgrade Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin
• Brian Robinson Jr Game Time Decision - Upgrade Austin Ekeler
• Noah Brown OUT - Upgrade Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Luke McCaffrey, and Zach Ertz
• Evan Engram Game Time Decision
• David Njoku legitimately Questionable

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers Runback Options: Ja'Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins
• C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell Runback Options: James Cook or Dalton Kincaid
• Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins or Andre Iosivas Runback Options: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, or Mark Andrews
• Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel Sr. Runback Option: Marvin Harrison Jr..

Flag Plant Cash Play

• Chuba Hubbard
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Tucker Kraft
• Broncos D/ST

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Brock Purdy
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Tank Dell
• Jordan Whittington