Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals - Over/Under 50.5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers - Over/Under 47.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 45
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 43.5
- New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons - Over/Under 42
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Texans at home vs. Jaguars - Implied Team Total 25.8
- 49ers at home vs. Patriots - Implied Team Total 24.8
- Chiefs on road vs. Chargers - Implied Team Total 24
- Bears at home vs. Rams - Implied Team Total 21.8
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | at Cardinals | $6,500 |
2
|
| vs Bengals
| $5,300 |
The Commanders haven't punted in two weeks and Jayden Daniels just put on an exceptional performance on Monday Night Football in just his third ever NFL start. Daniels completed 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns and added 39 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground on 12 rushes. The dual-threat star now gets a Cardinals defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week.
Andy Dalton lit it up last week in his first start, throwing for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. He's in a fantastic spot at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon Barkley | at Buccaneers | $8,000 |
| 2 | Alvin Kamara | at Falcons | $7,600 |
| 3 | Chuba Hubbard | vs Bengals | $5,700 |
| 4 | Jordan Mason | vs Patriots | $6,700 |
| 5 | Kyren Williams | at Bears | $7,300 |
6
| Najee Harris | at Colts | $5,600 |
Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in opportunities per game (24.7) and ranks second in total yards per game (134.7) and tied for first in total touchdowns (5). The Buccaneers defense ranks 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.
*Alvin Kamara is questionable. His status must be monitored.* He ranks second in opportunities per game (24), first in total yards per game (139), and tied for first in total touchdowns (5). He has a decent matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed.
In Andy Dalton's first start last week Chuba Hubbard saw 26 opportunities and put up 169 total yards. Both of those would lead the league if averaged out over the first three weeks. Hubbard is a talented player and is now playing within a competent offense. He's at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed. Priced at just $5,700, Hubbard is a cash game flag plant this week and is in play in tournaments as well.
Jordan Mason ranks third in the NFL in opportunities per game (23.7) and fourth in total yards per game (114.7). The 49ers are ten-point home favorites. The Patriots defense ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed.
Kyren Williams' 116 total yards and 3 total touchdown performance last week should not have surprised anyone. Williams led the entire NFL in opportunities per game (23), ranked third in total yards per game (112.5), and ranked third in total touchdowns (15) last season. Williams is an incredible running back who ranked 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.34), fourth in missed tackles forced (rushing + receiving) per game (4.5), eighth in explosive runs (10+ Yard Runs) (26), eighth in rush yards over expected per attempt (+0.49), and 15th in PFF Elusive Rating (69.3) in 2023. Without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Williams' projected workload is one of the highest and most stable in the league.
Jaylen Warren is out due to injury and Najee Harris already ranks eighth in opportunities per game (21.3). Harris offers bankable volume at an affordable $5,600 price tag in cash. The matchup doesn't look great on paper but it is important to note Colts' star defensive linemen DeForest Buckner is currently on Injured Reserve.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rashee Rice | at Chargers | $7,300 |
| 2 | Stefon Diggs | vs Jaguars | $6,600 |
| 3 | Diontae Johnson | vs Bengals | $5,600 |
| 4 | Chris Godwin | vs Eagles | $6,800 |
| 5 | Marvin Harrison Jr.. | vs Commanders | $7,500 |
6 7 8
| at Raiders vs Patriots vs Bengals | $6,300 $5,600 $4,800 |
Rashee Rice ranks third in targets (29), first in receptions (24), and second in receiving yards (288). Without Isiah Pacheco this offense runs through Patrick Mahomes II, Rice, and Travis Kelce. Rice's elite volume doesn't project to be going anywhere.
Tank Dell is out which narrows the target tree. Stefon Diggs looks like a strong play in all formats at home against a Jaguars defense that just got shredded by Josh Allen last week. Jacksonville's defense ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Diggs just caught 10 of 12 targets for 94 yards a week ago.
In Andy Dalton's first start last week Dionte Johnson caught 8 of 14 targets for 122 yards and 1 touchdown. He saw a 38% target share. He's priced at just $5,600 at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Adam Thielen is out due to injury.
Chris Godwin's increased usage in the slot, his more natural position, has been great to begin the season. Godwin ranks 13th in targets (25), third in receptions (21), seventh in receiving yards (253), and first in receiving touchdowns (3). He has scored a touchdown in all three games. He's at home against an Eagles defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has seen 19 targets and scored three touchdowns over the past two weeks. Trey McBride is out this week due to a concussion. Harrison Jr. is at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week against a Commanders defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Amari Cooper has seen target totals of 9, 8, and 12 this season and David Njoku will miss another game. The volume is there and the matchup doesn't scare as the Raiders are middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed and their best defensive player, Maxx Crosby, is out due to injury.
Jauan Jennings just balled out last week catching 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and 3 touchdowns. Deebo Samuel Sr. is questionable and Jennings is at home in a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Adam Thielen's absence due to injury increases both Xavier Legette's floor and ceiling outcome projections, making him an intriguing play in all formats. Priced at $4,800, he allows for salary savings in a good spot at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Legette is a freak athlete who can house it at any time.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Goedert | at Buccaneers | $5,100 |
2 3 4 5 |
| vs Browns at Bears vs Rams at Cardinals | $5,600 $3,700 $4,400 $4,000 |
DeVonta Smith is out and A.J. Brown is questionable. Even if Brown plays Goedert is looking like a strong cash play after catching 10 of 11 passes for 170 yards last week.
Brock Bowers ranks at the tight end position: second in targets (20), first in receptions (18), and second in receiving yards (197). He's an extreme talent and is at home against a Browns defense with a banged-up Myles Garrett that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Davante Adams and Michael Mayer are both out due to injuries. Bowers is in play in all formats and is a cash game lock.
Colby Parkinson played 100% of snaps and ran a route on 27 of 30 Matthew Stafford dropbacks. He's priced at just $3,700 yet is an integral part of this Rams offense without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
The Bears can't run the ball right now so the offense is revolving around Caleb Williams. That could equate to a big fantasy game this week at home against a Rams defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And that's good for Cole Kmet who just caught 10 off 11 passes for 97 yards and 1 touchdown last week.
The absence of Austin Ekeler this week due to a concussion could help Zach Ertz since it frees up some of those short and intermediate targets. Ertz is in a good spot against a Cardinals defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | at Chargers | $3,600 |
| 2 | Steelers | at Colts | $3,300 |
The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites and the Chargers have the second-fewest Implied Team Total (15.5) of the entire week.
The Steelers defense has been lights out to begin the season. They rank first in EPA/Play Allowed and now get to go after the inconsistent Anthony Richardson, who leads the league in interceptions (6).
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Murray | vs Commanders | $6,800 |
| 2 | C.J. Stroud | vs Jaguars | $7,000 |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | at Panthers | $6,600 |
| 4 | Caleb Williams | vs Rams | $5,600 |
Kyler Murray ranks sixth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (19.8) and is the home quarterback in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week. His matchup is incredible against a Commanders defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans had a disappointing performance last week on the road at Minnesota. Yet, Stroud should bounce back massively at home against a Jaguars defense that just got shredded by Josh Allen last week. Jacksonville's defense ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Bengals have been a pass-heavy team to begin the season and their offense just got Tee Higgins back. Burrow has volume on his side and the team projects to put the ball in his hands more than ever on Sunday with their season essentially on the line after an 0-3 start. Burrow has a great matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Bears can't run the ball right now so the offense is revolving around Caleb Williams. That could equate to a big fantasy game this week at home against a Rams defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breece Hall | vs Broncos | $7,800 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | vs Saints | $7,400 |
| 3 | Aaron Jones | at Packers | $6,400 |
| 4 | James Conner | vs Commanders | $6,500 |
| 5 | Rhamondre Stevenson | at 49ers | $6,200 |
| 6 | Zack Moss | at Panthers | $5,900 |
The Jets are seven-point home favorites and the Broncos just lost their middle linebacker, Alex Singleton, to the season due to a torn ACL. Breece Hall ranks seventh in opportunities per game (21.7) and gets a Broncos defense that ranks 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed.
Bijan Robinson is a bit banged up and hasn't produced a huge fantasy game yet. For a player of his caliber, it sounds like a good time to play him in tournaments at lower ownership. Robinson ranks 12th in opportunities per game (20) and is at home against a Saints defense that ranks 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.
A legit revenge game! The Packers moved on from Aaron Jones this offseason and replaced him with Josh Jacobs. Jones returns to Lambeau this Sunday for the first time as a visiting player. Jones is off to a hot and efficient start on his new team. Jones ranks eighth in the NFL in total yards per game (108.3) and his dual-threat skillset provides upside weekly in this humming Vikings offense.
James Conner had a down game last week which should push his ownership percentages down a bit, helping make him a strong tournament play in this potential shootout. Conner is at home in the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week against a Commanders defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Rush EPA Allowed.
The Patriots are ten-point road underdogs and they just got demolished last week on Thursday Night Football for the whole world to see. No one is going to play Rhamondre Stevenson in this one, making him a fun tournament play. Kyren Williams just put up 116 total yards and 3 total touchdowns on this defense last week. Stevenson is a dual-threat and has a chance to get there multiple ways against a 49ers defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Zack Moss turned 18 opportunities into 97 total yards and 1 touchdown last week. There's upside for even more in this one against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Jefferson | at Packers | $8,700 |
| 2 | Ja'Marr Chase | at Panthers | $7,700 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | vs Jaguars | $7,200 |
| 4 | Drake London | vs Saints | $6,200 |
| 5 | Mike Evans | vs Eagles | $7,000 |
6 7 8 9
| at Cardinals at Panthers at Colts vs Browns | $5,800 $5,900 $5,700 $5,500 |
The Vikings offense is humming. They rank third in Offensive EPA/Play. Justin Jefferson is a huge reason as he's a big play machine. Despite ranking 22nd in targets (21) and 23rd in receptions (14) Jefferson still ranks fourth in receiving yards (273) and first in receiving touchdowns (3). The volume is coming so there is even more meat on the bone.
Ja'Marr Chase caught 6 of his 7 targets for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. With the Bengals' season essentially fully on the line this Sunday, look for Chase to see even more volume but still see his usual downfield shots from Joe Burrow. The matchup is there for Chase to explode again against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tank Dell is out which narrows the target tree. Fire up Nico Collins at home against a Jaguars defense that just got shredded by Josh Allen last week. Jacksonville's defense ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Collins is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. He leads the league in receiving yards (338) and has 50 more than any other player.
Drake London's usage and production have continued to increase as Kirk Cousins has continued to shake off the rust. Week 1: 3 targets. Week 2: 7 targets Week 3: 9 targets. London has caught six passes in each of the past two games for 50+ yards and a touchdown. He'll go overlooked this week, making him a strong low-owned play. London is at home against an average defense in a competitive division game.
Mike Evans went off for two touchdowns in Week 1 but Chris Godwin has been the story over the past weeks. Don't give in to recency bias. Evans has blowup potential at home against an Eagles defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Terry McLaurin made folks winners on the Monday Night two-game slate last week. Here is what I wrote before that game:
Terry McLaurin inexplicably only has eight receptions for 39 yards through two games. But let's zoom out a bit. There will be long completions between Jayden Daniels and McLaurin this season. Daniels throws a beautiful deep ball and McLaurin is one of the best deep receivers in the league.
The cat is out of the bag now and we can go right back to McLaurin against a Cardinals defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed in the game with the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week.
Tee Higgins looked good in his return last week. There was no easing him back into the lineup. Higgins ran a route on 39 of 41 dropbacks, saw six targets, and came one step away from a touchdown reception. He'll be low-owned and has upside against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
George Pickens has a 24% target share this season. That's good! Justin Fields is only averaging 172.7 passing yards per game. That's bad! Pickens is an alpha talent but he's going to be boom or bust all season due to the offense he's in. That sounds like someone to consider in tournaments! We're playing for first and if Pickens' upside outcome hits he can help you win. This is a favorable spot for Pickens in a dome against an average and banged-up Colts pass defense.
No Davante Adams or Michael Mayer in this one means more Jakobi Meyers. Most of the attention will rightfully move toward Brock Bowers but Meyers now has a ceiling at home against a Browns defense with a banged-up Myles Garrett that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | at Chargers | $5,800 |
| 2 | Hunter Henry | at 49ers | $4,200 |
3
|
| vs Jaguars
| $4,100
|
Without Isiah Pacheco this offense runs through Patrick Mahomes II, Rice, and Travis Kelce. It's been three games. Kelce's ranks at the tight end position last season: third in receptions (93) and second in receiving yards (984). If he's washed you're not winning first place but if he's not he could help you win a tournament this week at lower ownership. The risk is worth the reward. With all the talk out there, the human emotion in Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes II will want to get Kelce going in this one.
The 49ers defense is struggling. They rank 25th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. The Patriots offense should find some success in this one. Expect plenty of passing since they're ten-point road underdogs. That could be a formula for success for Hunter Henry who just two weeks ago caught 8 of 12 targets for 109 yards. He's the main receiving option right now until/if any of these young receivers make a leap.
Dalton Schultz is a complete afterthought after a slow start but without Tank Dell this week, he jumps back into the number three option in the passing game. He's a fun tournament play at home against a Jaguars defense that just got shredded by Josh Allen last week. Jacksonville's defense ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. This looks like a great spot for Stroud. Would you be surprised at all to see him connect with Schultz in the end zone at least once? You shouldn't be!
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texans | vs Jaguars | $3,000 |
| 2 | 49ers | vs Patriots | $3,800 |
| 3 | Jets | vs Broncos | $3,700 |
This Jaguars offense looks broken. Trevor Lawrence has only completed 52.8% of his passes and he's been sacked (11) the fifth-most. The Texans are six-point home favorites. There will be opportunities for sacks and turnovers.
The 49ers are ten-point home favorites in this spot. Forcing Jacoby Brissett and/or Drake Maye into a pass-first game script could be huge for producing sacks and turnovers as the Patriots have one of the worst offensive lines in football.
Things came together last week for Bo Nix after a rough first few matchups to begin his career. Unfortunately for Nix, he now has to go on the road to face a strong Jets defensive unit. The Jets are seven-point home favorites and the Broncos have been unable to run the football successfully this season. This looks like a spot where the Jets will be able to force Nix into a pass-heavy game script on the road in just his fourth start.
Key Injuries
- Christian McCaffrey OUT - Upgrade Jordan Mason
- Deebo Samuel Sr. Questionable Ricky Pearsall OUT - Upgrade George Kittle, Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings
- Trey McBride OUT - Upgrade Marvin Harrison Jr., Greg Dorcth, and Michael Wilson
- Davante Adams and Michael Mayer both OUT - Upgrade Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker
- Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both OUT - Upgrade Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Jordan Whittington, and Tyler Johnson
- DeVonta Smith and Britain Covey both OUT and A.J. Brown Questionable - Upgrade Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, and Parris Campbell
- Austin Ekeler OUT - Upgrade Brian Robinson Jr, Zach Ertz, and Luke McCaffrey
- Tank Dell OUT - Upgrade Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Dalton Schultz
- Jaylen Warren OUT - Upgrade Najee Harris
- Isiah Pacheco OUT - Upgrade Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, and Kareem Hunt
- Joe Mixon Doubtful and Dameon Pierce OUT - Upgrade Cam Akers
- Evan Engram OUT and Gabe Davis Questionable - Upgrade Christian Kirk, Brenton Strange, and Brian Thomas Jr.
- Adam Thielen OUT - Upgrade Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Jonathan Mingo
- David Njoku OUT - Upgrade Amari Cooper
- Maxx Crosby OUT - Upgrade Browns offense
- Jordan Love legitimately Questionable
- Justin Herbert Questionable (High ankle sprain)
- Diontae Johnson Questionable but expected to play
- Keenan Allen Questionable but expected to play
- Alvin Kamara Questionable
- Chris Olave Questionable
- Joe Mixon Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr.. and Greg Dortch Runback Options: Brian Robinson Jr or Terry McLaurin
- Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins or Andre Iosivas Runback Options: Chuba Hubbard, Diontae Johnson, or Xavier Legette
- Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze or Keenan Allen Runback Option: Kyren Williams