Cracking DraftKings Week 3

Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints - Over/Under 49.5
• Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals - Over/Under 52.5
• Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 48.5
• Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 45.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• 49ers on road vs. Rams - Implied Team Total 25.5
• Raiders at home vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 22.5
• Buccaneers at home bs. Broncos - Implied Team Total 23.3
• Seahawks at home vs. Dolphins - Implied Team Total 23.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

New Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is one of the main storylines of the 2024 season so far. Through two weeks, Derek Carr ranks tied for first in touchdown passes (5) and New Orleans' offense is lapping the field in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play). Carr is at home in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (49.5) on the week.

Andy Dalton is a competent NFL starting quarterback and priced at just $4,800, allows for salary savings to use at more important positions. The matchup isn't one to shy away from.

Geno Smith ranked 12th in passing yards per game (245.4) in 2023 and just threw for 327 yards in just his second game under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Smith is at home in a favorable spot against a Dolphins team without Tua Tagovailoa and a defense that ranked 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed last season.

Gardner Minshew II ranks second in passing yards (266.5) through the first two weeks of the season. He's a gunslinger and is at home in a matchup that he should be able to take advantage of. The Panthers defense ranked 28th in EPA/Play Allowed last season and their best player, Derrick Brown, has already been lost for the year due to injury.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ranked fifth in opportunities per game (20.5) last season and ranks ninth in opportunities per game (21.5) through two weeks to begin 2024. He scored four touchdowns last week and is playing at home in a great matchup against an Eagles defense that ranked 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed last year.

Saquon Barkley ranked third in opportunities per game (22.1) last year and ranks second in opportunities per game (26.5) through two weeks to begin this season. Barkley's talents are being unleashed in a dynamic offense with an elite offensive line.

Jordan Mason ranks fourth in both opportunities per game (25) and total yards per game (128) so far. He has a good matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed to begin the season without Aaron Donald. He's going to touch the ball as many times as he can handle here with the 49ers offense missing Deebo Samuel Sr. and most likely George Kittle as well.

Ken Walker III will miss another week. Zach Charbonnet saw 19 opportunities including five targets last week. The Seahawks are 5.5-point home favorites and Charbonnet gets a Dolphins defense that ranked 20th in Rush EPA Allowed last year.

Raheem Mostert is doubtful and projects to miss another game. Without him last week, De'Von Achane saw a whopping 29 opportunities including seven targets. Without Tua Tagovailoa, look for Miami's offense to revolve the offense around Achane in this one. Achane's talent combined with a large workload makes him a strong cash play.

AJ Dillon and MarShawn Lloyd are both out. Josh Jacobs carried the ball 32 times last week. Volume doesn't seem to be an issue for the talented running back in this one.

Need a salary-saving option? Joe Mixon is listed as doubtful and Dameon Pierce is out. Cam Akers is slated to start for one of the best offenses in the NFL. He saw eight opportunities in relief of Mixon last week and projects for 15+ chances in this one. He's priced at just $4,700.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson is off the injury report and is a full-go for this competitive contest with C.J. Stroud putting up points on the other side. Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the NFL, can take it to the house every time he touches the ball as evidenced by his 97-yard touchdown catch last week, and Jordan Addison is out again increasing his target projection.

Last season, Nico Collins ranked second in yards per route run (3.10), fifth in yards after catch per reception (6.9), sixth in NextGenStats' yards after catch above expectation (+2.5), fifth in targets per route run (27%), seventh in 20+ yard receptions (13), and sixth in receiving yards off of 20+ yard receptions (466). He's a superstar, folks. That was known coming into the season and through two weeks he leads the NFL in receiving yards (252).

It's extremely bullish Chris Godwin is back to being utilized most of the time out of the slot this season. The results so far: Godwin ranks tied for second in receptions (15), tied for second in receiving yards (200), and tied for first in touchdown receptions (2).

New Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is one of the main storylines of the 2024 season so far. Through two weeks, New Orleans' pre-snap motion and play-action utilization have spiked. That has helped Rashid Shaheed, who ranks eighth in receiving yards (169) and tied for first in touchdown receptions (2) so far. Shaheed is at home in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (49.5) on the week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is and has always been that dude. As a true sophomore, Smith-Njigba averaged 4.01 yards per route run and caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards. All three of those marks were better than teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. It's early but offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, looks to be unlocking his talent. Smith-Njigba caught 12 of 16 targets for 117 yards last Sunday and is priced at just $5,400 at home in a favorable spot against a Dolphins team without Tua Tagovailoa and a defense that ranked 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed last season.

Malik Nabers saw 18 of Daniel Jones' 28 pass attempts last week, which was good for a 64.3% target share. That type of guaranteed target volume is almost unheard of, making Nabers a solid cash play despite the tough matchup.

Demarcus Robinson has run a route on 75 of Matthew Stafford's 83 dropbacks so far this year. That's a 90% route rate and Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both out with injuries. Robinson is a strong cash play.

Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Ricky Pearsall are all out of this game George Kittle is doubtful. Jauan Jennings is priced at just $4,100, has an awesome matchup against a Rams defense that ranks that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed to begin the season without Aaron Donald, and Jennings has outproduced Brandon Aiyuk so far to begin the season. Jennings is an awesome cash play.

Without Jordan Addison last week, Jalen Nailor ran a route on 31 of 32 dropbacks. He's a talented player who has already scored two touchdowns this season.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride ranks tied for second at the tight end position in targets (15) through two weeks. He's making a year-three leap even after posting a really strong reason in 2023, especially once Kyler Murray returned from injury. McBride is a solid play in all formats at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both out with injuries, making Colby Parkinson a strong cash play at tight end proceed at just $3,600. Parkinson has run a route on 66 of Matthew Stafford's 83 dropbacks. That's an 80% route rate, which is strong for a tight end.

Team Defenses

The Bears have a top ten defensive unit, provide salary savings at $2,600, and get boom-bust Anthony Richardson who just threw three interceptions and fumbled twice last week.

The 49ers project to offer reliability in this one. The Rams offense is completely banged up. They're missing multiple starters on their offensive line as well as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

The Eagles at Saints has the second-highest Over/Under (49.5) on the week. Dual-threat Jalen Hurts proved the tush push is still alive and well last week. Hurts ranks tied for third at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.1) through two weeks, which is the exact ranking he had last season as well (24.2).

The Lions at Cardinals has the highest Over/Under (52.5) on the entire week. There should be fireworks here and Kyler Murray put incredible film together in Week 2, proving his scrambling and playmaking ability are all the way back post-ACL tear. Murray gets to play this one at home.

Jared Goff is a fun tournament play in one of the best fantasy games of the week since he never receives the respect he deserves from the masses. Goff ranked sixth in both passing yards per game (265.9) and pass touchdowns per game (1.8) in 2023. And this matchup, paired with the projected game environment, could produce rocketships. Goff gets a Cardinals defense that only ranked 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last season.

With most emphasis likely to be put on the Lions at Cardinals and Eagles at Saints games, the Ravens at Cowboys contest could go a bit overlooked. That's exciting for Lamar Jackson, and we know the upside outcomes his dual-threat play style can produce. Jackson ranked fourth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.3) in 2023.

With most emphasis likely to be put on the Lions at Cardinals and Eagles at Saints games, the Ravens at Cowboys contest could go a bit overlooked. Dak Prescott is the home matchup in this sneaky game with shootout potential. The matchup is tough on paper so look for his ownership percentages to be low but let's remember how good Prescott can be. He ranked seventh in passing yards per game (264.8) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2) a season ago.

Running Backs

The people are down on Kyren Williams and the Rams after an injury-riddled start to the season, making this a sneaky tournament spot for Kyren Williams. He led the entire NFL in opportunities per game (23), ranked third in total yards per game (112.5), and ranked third in total touchdowns (15) last season. Williams is an incredible running back who ranked 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.34), fourth in missed tackles forced (rushing + receiving) per game (4.5), eighth in explosive runs (10+ Yard Runs) (26), eighth in rush yards over expected per attempt (+0.49), and 15th in PFF Elusive Rating (69.3). Without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua look for Sean McVay to ride Williams in this one. And the matchup is there at home against a 49ers defense that only ranked 26th in Rush EPA Allowed in 2023.

Bucky Irving is the flavor of the month but Rachaad White is still averaging a decent 16 opportunities per game and last season he ranked sixth in this category (19.9). White is a good receiver out of the backfield making him a dual-threat weapon, which is a large reason why he ranked 12th in the NFL in total yards per game (90.4) in 2023. The Buccaneers are seven-point home favorites.

Jonathan Taylor is a risky tournament play because he's game script dependent. He didn't play at all in the fourth quarter last week with the Colts passing while playing from behind. Of course, taking on risk is a necessity in tournaments. The Colts are at home here and if they're able to keep this one close against a struggling Bears team then Taylor has a chance at a big day. Indianapolis is favored by 1.5 points.

James Conner ranks 11th in opportunities per game (21) through two weeks, has scored a touchdown in both contests, and is at home in the game with highest Over/Under (52.5) on the entire slate.

This projects as a Jahmyr Gibbs game in the contest with the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the entire week. Gibbs has seen 13 targets through two weeks and offers dual-threat tournament-winning upside in this spot against a Cardinals defense that ranked 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed a season ago.

Derrick Henry hasn't wowed to begin the season but he has scored in both games and saw 19 opportunities last week. Playing Henry is simply betting on the Ravens offense coming to play in this competitive game environment. If they do, Henry offers multi-touchdown upside.

Very tough to trust Zamir White right now but that's why we're leaning into him in tournaments. White is the Raiders' number one ground-and-pound running back and this looks like a rare spot where Antonio Pierce and Las Vegas' offense will be able to utilize that aspect of their weaponry. The Raiders are seven-point home favorites and White gets a Panthers defense missing their best player in Derrick Brown that already ranked dead last in Rush EPA Allowed last season.

Wide Receivers

Gardner Minshew II ranks second in passing yards (266.5) through the first two weeks of the season. That bodes well for Davante Adams who is at home in a spot he can absolutely crush against a Panthers defense that ranked 28th in EPA/Play Allowed last season. It's been the same old elite Adams to begin 2024. He ranks tied for fifth in receptions (14) and eighth in receiving yards (169).

A.J. Brown is out once again. DeVonta Smith saw a 33.33% target share last week and should remain highly targeted in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (49.5) on the week. We were promised more slot usage for Smith under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Despite the absence of A.J. Brown on the outside last week, Smith still saw four targets from the slot and caught his touchdown from that alignment.

Amon-Ra St. Brown saw 18 targets last week. His target ceiling is as high as anyone in the league and his upside should kick in the game with the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week against a Cardinals defense that only ranked 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last season.

Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Ricky Pearsall are all out of this game George Kittle is doubtful. Brandon Aiyuk has had two games to shake off some of the rust and it's time for him to start learning his new contract. It would be surprising if Aiyuk doesn't see double-digit targets in this spot in an awesome matchup against a Rams defense that ranks that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed to begin the season without Aaron Donald.

Zay Flowers is an ascending superstar. He ranks fourth in targets (21) through two weeks and is a fun tournament play in this somewhat sneaky tournament spot with most of the attention this week being paid to the Lions at Cardinals and Eagles at Saints games. Lamar Jackson has made many good defenses look silly and the Cowboys defense just gave up 44 points and 432 total yards to the Saints last week.

New Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is one of the main storylines of the 2024 season so far. Through two weeks, New Orleans' pre-snap motion and play-action utilization have spiked. The Saints offense is lapping the field in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) yet Chris Olave has only seen eight targets so far on the year. Get out in front of this one and roster Olave at home in this potential shootout. His boom weeks are coming.

Tank Dell has run 67 routes on 78 C.J. Stroud dropbacks. That's an 86% route rate. Dell is a full-time player despite many viewing him as the "number three receiver" behind Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. With this usage combined with Dell's talent, he can finish as the most productive Texans receiver in any given week, making him an incredible tournament play until he posts his first big game.

Diontae Johnson is a good receiver. He ranked as the seventh-best overall receiver last season according to ESPN Analytics and 28th in yards per route run (1.97). Bryce Young is out and competent NFL starter, Andy Dalton, is in. It will be fun to see what Johnson can do with a competent quarterback and you can find out for only $4,900.

Marvin Harrison Jr.. is likely to be somewhat of a boom-bust receiver to begin this season but we saw the boom part of that profile last week. Harrison Jr. caught four of his eight targets for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kyler Murray is playing out of his mind right now so there is once again upside at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers was an elite tight end prospect and he's already fully translated to the NFL. Through two weeks, Bowers ranks tied for 14th in targets (17), tied for second in receptions (15), and 13th in receiving yards (156). Those numbers are across the entire NFL, not just the tight end position. Bowers hasn't scored a touchdown yet but those are coming soon. He's at home in a great spot against a Panthers defense that ranked 28th in EPA/Play Allowed last season.

Mark Andrews had a modest performance last week, catching four of five targets for 51 yards. There's not a ton of bullish things I can say except that his route rate (76%) was solid in Week 2, he's priced at just $4,800, projects to be low owned, and is playing in a game with sneaky shootout potential.

Sam LaPorta has been quiet to begin the season but we know he's very talented and the Lions offense is elite. Playing in the game with the highest Over/Under (52.5) of the week against a Cardinals defense that only ranked 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last season, LaPorta has boom potential in this spot.

Dallas Goedert didn't have a big game on Monday Night without A.J. Brown but he did run a route on 100% of the dropbacks. That usage is big time. Brown will miss again, Goedert is just $4,600, he'll be low owned, and this could end up being the best fantasy game of the week.

Team Defenses

The Browns are six-point home favorites against Daniel Jones. They have legit top defense in fantasy potential this week.

Tua Tagovailoa is out and Skylar Thompson will start for the Dolphins. Mike Macdonald should have some fun scheming against Thompson, who threw three interceptions, fumbled twice, and only three one touchdown pass in seven games of action back in 2022.

It's been a struggle for Bo Nix so far. He's thrown four interceptions and hasn't thrown a touchdown pass. The Buccaneers are seven-point home favorites.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Christian McCaffrey OUT - Upgrade Jordan Mason
• Deebo Samuel Sr. and Ricky Pearsall OUT and George Kittle Doubtful - Upgrade Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings
• Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both OUT - Upgrade Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Jordan Whittington, and Tyler Johnson
• A.J. Brown OUT - Upgrade DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, and Dallas Goedert
• Tua Tagovailoa OUT - Upgrade Seahawks D/ST
• Ken Walker III Doubtful - Upgrade Zach Charbonnet
• Joe Mixon Doubtful and Dameon Pierce OUT - Upgrade Cam Akers
• Keenan Allen OUT - Upgrade DJ Moore and Rome Odunze
• Jordan Addison OUT - Upgrade Justin Jefferson, Jailen Nailor, and Aaron Jones
• David Njoku OUT - Upgrade Amari Cooper
• Jordan Love legitimately Questionable
• Justin Herbert Questionable (High ankle sprain)
• Raheem Mostert Doubtful - Upgrade De'Von Achane
• AJ Dillon and MarShawn Lloyd both OUT - Upgrade Josh Jacobs

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert Runback Options: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, or Rashid Shaheed
• Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olave Runback Options: DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert
• Kyler Murray and Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr.. Runback Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, or Jahmyr Gibbs
• Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta Runback Options: James Conner, Trey McBride, or Marvin Harrison Jr..
• Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews Runback Option: CeeDee Lamb

Flag Plant Cash Play

• Jordan Mason
• Jauan Jennings

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• DeVonta Smith
• Chris Olave
• Dallas Goedert