Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins - Over/Under 49.5
- Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 48.5
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts - Over/Under 49
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Bengals at home vs. Patriots - Implied Team Total 24.8
- Falcons at home vs. Steelers - Implied Team Total 22.5
- Bears at home vs. Titans - Implied Team Total 25
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Murray | at Bills | $6,400 |
2 3 |
| vs Titans at Buccaneers
| $5,900 $5,700
|
Kyler Murray was rounding back into form upon returning from injury last season but ranked fifth in DraftKings points per game (22.8) at the quarterback position in 2021 and eighth (19.9) in 2022. Murray is fairly priced and plays in the game with the third-highest Over/Under (48.5) on that main slate.
The Chicago Bears Implied Team Total is 25 points. The Chicago Bears!? Caleb Williams injects life into an organization that has historically struggled on offense. Williams is at home in a favorable spot to begin his career against a Titans defense that only ranked 25th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and 26th in Dropback Expected Points Added Allowed last season.
Jayden Daniels ran for 3,307 yards and 34 touchdowns in his collegiate career. He also threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns last season at LSU. This talented dual-threat is priced at just $5,700 in a great spot against a Buccaneers defense that only ranked 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed last season.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | vs Steelers | $7,700 |
| 2 | James Conner | at Bills | $6,200 |
| 3 | Devin Singletary | vs Vikings | $5,700 |
| 4 | Jerome Ford | vs Cowboys | $5,500 |
| 5 | Chuba Hubbard | at Saints | $5,300 |
Bijan Robinson ranked just 15th in opportunities per game (17.6) last season under Arthur Smith. Expect that workload to increase under Raheem Morris. Robinson is one of the most talented dual-threat running backs in the NFL and plays at home as a three-point favorite.
James Conner is $1,500 cheaper than Bijan Robinson yet averaged just 0.1 opportunities per game less than him last season. Connor's $6,200 price is favorable in an exciting fantasy game. Plus the Bills are without starting middle linebacker Matt Milano due to injury.
Devin Singletary has a history with Giants head coach Brian Daboll and projects as the Giants' replacement for Saquon Barkley to begin the season. Singletary averaged 14.3 opportunities per game a year ago sharing some of the work with Dameon Pierce and he projects to see a higher workload than that to begin the 2024 season. Singletary is no slouch and offers a dual-threat floor in a decent matchup.
Jerome Ford will once again handle the majority of the work for the Browns while Nick Chubb continues to rehab. Ford averaged 16.3 opportunities per game last season and provides safe projectable volume at home against a Cowboys defense that ranked 21st in EPA/Play Allowed in 2023.
Chuba Hubbard averaged 16.1 opportunities per game last season and rookie Jonathan Brooks won't suit up until October. Hubbard provides safe projectable volume but is ranked behind Jerome Ford as Carolina's new coaching staff provides a bit more uncertainty.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake London | vs Steelers | $6,000 |
| 2 | Terry McLaurin | at Buccaneers | $5,600 |
| 3 | Chris Olave | vs Panthers | $6,600 |
| 4 | Stefon Diggs | at Colts | $6,700 |
| 5 | Malik Nabers | vs Vikings | $5,900 |
| 6 | Diontae Johnson | at Saints | $5,300 |
Drake London is an elite wide receiver. His game is the total package. His only weakness is a lack of deep-end speed. That's it. London is priced at just $6,000 despite Atlanta's number two wide receiver being Darnell Mooney. London no longer has to play in Arthur Smith's archaic offense and receives an extreme quarterback boost going from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins.
Terry McLaurin is the clear-cut number-one option in the Commanders' passing game after Washington traded away Jahan Dotson. This is a great spot for McLaurin against a Buccaneers defense that only ranked 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed last season.
Chris Olave ranked 13th in the NFL in targets per game last season (9) and gets to play at home against a Panthers defense that ranked 28th in EPA/Play Allowed last year.
This matchup in the dome in Indianapolis has the second-highest Over/Under (49) on the main slate, which could create an environment that pushes Stroud toward his nuclear passing outcome. That should help Stefon Diggs who ranked 11th in the targets per game last season (9.5) and is the favorite to start in two wide receiver sets over Tank Dell to begin the year.
Saquon Barkley is on another team and Darren Waller retired. Malik Nabers was an elite prospect and projects to dominate this team's target share. He's at home in a matchup that doesn't scare us off.
Diontae Johnson projects as Bryce Young's number-one target in Dave Canales' new offense. Canales has resurrected the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield over the past two years and now looks to do the same with Young. Johnson is a solid play in full PPR priced at just $5,300.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Njoku | vs Cowboys | $5,600 |
| 2 | Jake Ferguson | at Browns | $5,200 |
| 3 | Taysom Hill | vs Panthers | $4,300 |
| 4 |
David Njoku finally put his exciting talent on full display last season, ranking third in targets (120), tied for fifth in receptions (81), sixth in receiving yards (882), and tied for second in touchdown receptions (6) at the tight end position. He also ranked eighth in the entire league in NextGenStats' Yards After Catch Above Expectation (+2.2).
Jake Ferguson impressively came on the scene in 2023. He ranked seventh in targets (96), ninth in receptions (71), eighth in receiving yards (761), and tied for seventh in touchdown receptions (5) at the tight end position. He's priced affordably.
Taysom Hill's carry totals over his past four seasons: 87, 70, 96, and 81. The Saints' coaching staff loves him and projects to continue to use him on the ground and near the goal line. Hill also caught a career-high 33 passes a season ago. He's a dual-threat in a favorable matchup priced at just $4,300.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bengals | vs Patriots | $3,800 |
2 3 | Panthers Texans | at Saints at Colts | $2,400 $2,700 |
The Bengals are nine-point home favorites, the Patriots are starting journeyman Jacoby Brissett, and New England potentially looks to have the worst offensive line in football.
The Panthers are priced at just $2,400 allowing us to save money for the more important and predictable positions. We're not afraid of an offense led by Derek Carr.
The Texans' defense is led by Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. and head coach Demeco Ryans. They're priced at just $2,700 against a quarterback in Anthony Richardson who only played in four games as a rookie before an injury knocked him out.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Cardinals | $8,000 | |
| 2 | C.J. Stroud | at Colts | $7,500 |
| 3 | Trevor Lawrence | at Dolphins | $6,200 |
4 5 | vs Jaguars vs Texans | $7,000 $6,300 |
Josh Allen led all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (25.3) last season and has been a dual-threat fantasy force for years. He plays in the game with the third-highest Over/Under (48.5) on the main slate and is at home against a defense that struggled mightily in 2023. The Cardinals ranked 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. The game environment and matchup both project to push Allen toward his ceiling outcome.
C.J. Stroud was a rookie revelation last season, ranking fourth in passing yards per game (274.6) and 13th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). Stroud is a certified baller, gets Tank Dell back from injury and in the lineup, and also gets the addition of Stefon Diggs. This matchup in the dome in Indianapolis has the second-highest Over/Under (49) on the main slate, which could create an environment that pushes Stroud toward his nuclear passing outcome. But it also could push Anthony Richardson toward his dual-threat ceiling. Richardson is intriguing in tournaments as the home quarterback as he ran for four touchdowns in just four games last season. The rushing upside is humongous in a favorable fantasy game environment like this.
This Jaguars at Dolphins game has the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate, providing plenty of fantasy intrigue and putting both quarterbacks on the DFS tournament map. Trevor Lawrence will be on the road but his team won't have to travel far as they'll stay in Florida. Lawrence has flown under the radar all off-season as he was drafted late in most best ball and redraft leagues. Expect that to correlate with low tournament ownership despite this exciting fantasy game environment. Lawrence remains supremely talented and his weapons received a boost this offseason. Then there is the home quarterback in this great matchup, Tua Tagovailoa, who ranked third in passing yards per game (278.2) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8) last year.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alvin Kamara | vs Panthers | $6,700 |
| 2 | James Cook | vs Cardinals | $6,900 |
| 3 | Rachaad White | vs Commanders | $6,300 |
| 4 | Travis Etienne Jr. | at Dolphins | $7,200 |
| 5 | De'Von Achane | vs Jaguars | $6,800 |
6 7 8 | vs Jaguars vs Patriots at Seahawks | $6,400 $5,000 $4,300 |
The Saints season should go off the rails quickly but at least to begin the season, Alvin Kamara looks like a fantastic DraftKings play. Kamara ranked fifth in the league in opportunities per game (20.5) and 14th in total yards per game (89.2) last season. His dual-threat ability pairs perfectly with Derek Carr's preference to throw short and intermediate passes, which helped him rack up games of 13 and 12 receptions. Kamara is at home in a great spot against a Panthers defense that ranked 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed last year.
James Cook is a talented player who doesn't need massive volume in order to produce a spike week. Cook ranked 20th in opportunities per game (17.1) but ranked ninth in total yards per game (94.7) last season. He's at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Cardinals defense that ranked 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed in 2023.
Rachaad White ranked sixth in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.9) and 12th in total yards per game (90.4) last season. The Buccaneers are three-point home favorites and White has a great matchup against a Commanders defense that ranked dead last in EPA/Play Allowed in 2023.
This Jaguars at Dolphins game has the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate, providing plenty of fantasy intrigue. Travis Etienne Jr. is uber-talented, ranked sixth in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.9) and eighth in total touchdowns (12) last season, and gets a matchup against a Dolphins defense that could be had on the ground in 2023 as they ranked 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.
De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are at home as three-point favorites in this awesome fantasy matchup. While their volume can not be safely projected, their efficiency should be expected to continue in this great offense. Mostert led the NFL in touchdowns (21) last year and Achane ranked tenth in total yards per game (93.6). Both offer spike week potential most weeks, especially in this spot.
Need to save some salary and are okay with getting a bit risky? Then these next two names are for you:
Chase Brown only averaged 4.2 opportunities per game as a rookie but Joe Mixon is gone and Brown showed the ability to be a workhorse at the collegiate level. He turned 355 touches, including 27 receptions, into 1,883 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 2022. Brown's 329 carries led all Power 5 backs, and his 83 forced missed tackles ranked second behind only Bijan Robinson that season. We don't yet know how the workload split is going to go between Brown and Zack Moss but Brown is the preference on DraftKings due to their full PPR scoring and Brown projecting to be a bit more involved in the passing game. The Bengals are nine-point home favorites.
Jaleel McLaughlin only averaged 6.8 opportunities per game as a rookie but Samaje Perine is gone and his workload already projected to increase even before Perine was cut. McLaughlin owns the NCAA all-time rushing yards record with 8,166. He's a talented dual-threat who projects to be a security blanket for Bo Nix in his first start against Mike Macdonald. Priced at just $4,300, McLaughlin could be a tournament difference-maker if he begins the season in a timeshare with Javonte Williams.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Thomas Jr. | at Dolphins | $4,700 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | at Giants | $8,400 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | at Colts | $7,000 |
| 4 | Tank Dell | at Colts | $5,500 |
| 5 | Christian Kirk | at Dolphins | $5,500 |
| 6 | Mike Evans | vs Commanders | $7,300 |
| 7 | Chris Godwin | vs Commanders | $5,800 |
| 8 | DJ Moore | vs Titans | $6,500 |
| 9 | Khalil Shakir | vs Cardinals | $5,100 |
Brian Thomas Jr. caught a ridiculous 17 touchdowns last season at LSU and he did it by winning deep. Thomas Jr. ranked tied for third in the Nation in deep catches (15) and second in deep yards (670). Play him in tournaments at just $4,700 in this awesome matchup before everyone realizes how seamless the connection between Thomas Jr. and Trevor Lawrence will be all year.
T.J. Hockenson is out and Jordan Addison is dealing with an ankle issue. Justin Jefferson is in line to see tons and tons of targets this season, especially to begin the year with his teammates dealing with injuries. He already ranked ninth in targets per game (9.6) and third in receiving yards per game (98) a season ago. And the Giants' defense only ranked 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed in 2023.
Last season, Nico Collins ranked second in yards per route run (3.10), fifth in yards after catch per reception (6.9), sixth in NextGenStats' yards after catch above expectation (+2.5), fifth in targets per route run (27%), seventh in 20+ yard receptions (13), and sixth in receiving yards off of 20+ yard receptions (466). He's a superstar, folks.
Tank Dell's ownership percentages are likely to be low due to Stefon Digg's presence but all three of C.J. Stroud's elite wideouts have a chance to go bonkers in this awesome fantasy game environment. Dell ranked 16th in yards per route run (2.22) and 19th in targets per route run (23%) in 2023. He's certified very good at football and intriguingly priced at just $5,550.
Christian Kirk ranked 19th in DraftKings points per game (14.8) at the wide receiver position in 2022 when he put up 84 catches for 1,108 yards and 8 touchdowns in 17 games. Similarly, Kirk averaged 13.2 DraftKings points per game last season including the game where he was injured. His role is still locked in as Trevor Lawrence's intermediate and deep slot weapon and the game environment is fantastic with the highest Over/Under (49.5) on the main slate.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both in a fantastic spot at home against a Commanders defense that ranked dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last season. Mike Evans' Hall of Fame career is well known so let's highlight Godwin here. The new coaching staff has reported all offseason they're moving Godwin back to the slot, his more natural position. Godwin projects to line up against rookie slot corner Mike Sainristil. We know whose winning that matchup, making Godwin one of my favorite tournament plays of the week.
DJ Moore has added target competition in Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze but he's also extremely good at football and has projected improved quarterback play. Moore ranked 11th in receiving yards per game (81.3) last season and can take the top off the defense at any moment. He's in a great spot here at home against a Titans defense that only ranked 25th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and 26th in Dropback Expected Points Added Allowed last season.
This Cardinals at Bills game has the third-highest Over/Under (48.5) on the main slate and Josh Allen is at home against a defense that struggled mightily in 2023. The Cardinals ranked 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. We love this spot for Buffalo's offense but outside of Dalton Kincaid, who can we look at to benefit through the air? Khalil Shakir showed promise last season, ranking in NextGenStats metrics: fourth in Yards After Catch per Reception (7.6) and third in Yards After Catch Above Expectation (+3). He's a fun player to mix in with Josh Allen stacks and/or Bills/Cardinals game stacks.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalton Kincaid | vs Caridnals | $5,800 |
| 2 | Trey McBride | at Bills | $6,100 |
| 3 | Evan Engram | at Dolphins | $5,500 |
4 5 | vs Steelers at Chargers | $4,600 $4,500 |
Dalton Kincaid was an awesome prospect, showed a lot of promise in year one, and now enters 2024 as Josh Allen's number-one target with Stefon Diggs no longer on the team. This is a really exciting spot as the game has the third-highest Over/Under (48.5) on the main slate and Kincaid is at home against a defense that struggled mightily in 2023. The Cardinals ranked 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Trey McBride is an exciting tournament play due to the game environment and Buffalo's absence of starting middle linebacker Matt Milano due to injury. That could allow McBride to eat over the middle of the field.
Evan Engram ranked first in targets (140), first in receptions (114), and third in receiving yards (963) at the tight end position last season. He's a fun tournament play in this awesome fantasy matchup between Jacksonville and Miami.
Kyle Pitts is priced at just $4,600 yet his limited participation in practice might scar some away. It's time to pounce. Arthur Smith is gone and Pitts receives an extreme quarterback boost going from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins.
Brock Bowers is arguably the greatest tight end prospect of all time. He was dominant every time he stepped on the field in college, including as a true freshman when he caught 56 passes for 882 yards and 13 touchdowns. We want to beat our competition to the 2024 season storylines and one of them could be Bowers is simply the same dominant player in the NFL as he was in college.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcons | vs Steelers | $3,300 |
| 2 | Chargers | vs Raiders | $2,900 |
| 3 | Bears | vs Titans | $3,400 |
The Falcons improved their defense this offseason bringing in Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons. They're three-point home favorites against extreme sack-taker Russell Wilson.
The Chargers have weapons on defense, are three-point home favorites, and get to go after journeyman Gardner Minshew II.
The Titans offense is exciting this season but Will Levis still has a lot to prove. On the road against a solid unit, Levis could make some mistakes. The Bears D/ST is a solid tournament play.
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, and Brian Thomas Jr. Runback Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and/or De'Von Achane
- Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir Runback Options: Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr.
- C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and/or Tank Dell
