Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons - Over/Under 51.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 48.5
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 49.5
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 48.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Bengals at home vs Raiders - Implied Team Total 27
- Eagles at home vs Jaguars - Implied Team Total 26.5
- Ravens at home vs Broncos - Implied Team Total 27.5
- Commanders on road vs Giants - Implied Team Total 23.5
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | vs Dolphins | $7,700 |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts | vs Jaguars | $7,800 |
| 3 | Derek Carr | at Panthers | $5,600 |
Josh Allen ranks fifth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (20.6) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). He leads a Bills offense that ranks second in EPA/Play and 11th in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He's at home in the second-highest Over/Under (49.5) of the week against a Dolphins defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Jalen Hurts ranks third at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.5) and leads an Eagles offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play. Hurts has a dream matchup at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Derek Carr returns this week to the best possible matchup imaginable. The Panthers rank dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Carr ranks tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and is an extreme salary saver for cash games priced at just $5,600.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alvin Kamara | at Panthers | $7,800 |
| 2 | Derrick Henry | vs Broncos | $8,300 |
| 3 | James Cook | vs Dolphins | $7,200 |
| 4 | D'Andre Swift | at Cardinals | $6,400 |
| 5 | Alexander Mattison | at Bengals | $5,700 |
Alvin Kamara ranks fourth in opportunities per game (21.9), ninth in total yards per game (101.5), and fourth in total touchdowns (7). The Saints are seven-point favorites and Kamara gets to attack the worst defense in the league. The Panthers defense ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. Kenfdre Miller is out and Jamaal Williams is doubtful.
The Ravens are 9.5-point home favorites so the game script projects to be favorable for Derrick Henry. He'll continue his massive season as he ranks 12th in opportunities per game (19.4), first in total yards per game (126.5), and first in total touchdowns (11).
James Cook averages a solid 16.4 opportunities per game and ranks third in the NFL in total touchdowns (8). The Bills are 6.5-point home favorites and Cook has a decent matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 16th in Rush EPA Allowed.
D'Andre Swift really turned it on in October. Swift now ranks 14th in opportunities per game (18.9) and 18th in total yards per game (92.4) in the entire NFL. Swift has a great matchup on tap against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed.
Alexander Mattison's workload in October was incredible. His opportunities in those four games: 18, 19, 26, and 19. Mattison is priced at just $5,700 and he gets a Bengals defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CeeDee Lamb | at Falcons | $8,800 |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | vs Commanders | $7,500 |
| 3 | Jakobi Meyers | at Bengals | $5,300 |
| 4 | Ladd McConkey | at Browns | $5,600 |
| 5 | Cedric Tillman | vs Chargers | $4,300 |
| 6 | Jalen Coker | vs Saints | $3,600 |
CeeDee Lamb has seen 31 targets over his past two games and finally erupted last week, catching 13 of 17 targets for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns. With that primetime blowup performance fresh on minds, Lamb will be high-owned this week but he's still a solid play, especially in cash. Cowboys at Falcons has the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week and Lamb gets a Falcons defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Malik Nabers leads the NFL in targets per game (12.2) and is in a good spot here to make good of that elite volume. Nabers is at home against a Commanders defense that only ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Jakobi Meyers has seen seven or more targets in four straight games. He's the wide receiver one with Davante Adams in New York. He's affordable at just $5,300 in a good matchup against a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Ladd McConkey was already the Chargers wide receiver one but he left no doubt about that after last week's huge performance. McConkey caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns and then Jim Harbaugh compared him to the great Steve Smith. McConkey is priced at just $5,600 and has seen six or more targets in six of seven games this season.
Cedric Tillman has a tough matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks first in EPA/Play Allowed and fourth in Dropback EPA Allowed. That could limit his upside but he's still a strong cash play priced at just $4,300. Tillman has seen 21 targets over the past two games and just put up 99 yards and 2 touchdowns last week with gunslinger Jameis Winston as his quarterback.
Looking for a major salary saver? Jalen Coker is priced at just $3,600. Diontae Johnson was just traded, Adam Thielen is listed as doubtful so his return looks to be at least another week away, and Xavier Legette is questionable. Coker played a season-high 69% of the offensive snaps and caught 4 of 6 targets for 78 yards and 1 touchdown last week. Coker has a decent matchup at home against a Saints defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Bowers | at Bengals | $6,000 |
| 2 | Trey McBride | vs Bears | $5,800 |
| 3 | David Njoku | vs Chargers | $5,500 |
| 4 | Kyle Pitts | vs Cowboys | $4,900 |
Brock Bowers is on pace to set rookie receiving records. He currently leads all tight ends in targets (64), receptions (52), and receiving yards (535). This is a good spot for Bowers to keep finding success against a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The past three games are what we expected to see from Trey McBride all season: 8 for 96 on 8 targets, 5 for 51 on 7 targets, and 9 for 124 on 11 targets. This is a tough matchup but McBride is one of the most talented tight ends in the league and he's playing at home.
David Njoku has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and seen 21 targets over that stretch. Amari Cooper is long gone. Jameis Winston is a massive quarterback upgrade increasing the quality of Njoku's targets. This is a tough matchup but Njoku is an elite tight end talent and he gets to play at home.
Cowboys at Falcons has the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week and Kyle Pitts has momentum after putting together a very solid month of October. His stat lines in those four games: 7 for 88 on 8 targets, 3 for 70 on 5 targets, 7 for 65 on 9 targets, and 4 for 91 and 2 touchdowns on 5 targets. The Falcons seem to be using Pitts' straight-line athleticism more and that could lead to a strong game in a great matchup at home against a banged-up Cowboys defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bengals | vs Raiders | $3,700 |
| 2 | Saints | at Panthers | $3,800 |
The Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites against Gardner Minshew II, who is only playing because Aidan O'Connell suffered an injury. Minshew has thrown the fourth-most interceptions (8) and taken the third-most sacks (22) this season.
Bryce Young is back in, Jonathan Brooks is not being activated, Diontae Johnson has been traded, Adam Thielen is doubtful, and Xavier Legette is questionable. The Saints are seven-point favorites against a struggling offense.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geno Smith | vs Rams | $5,800 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | vs Broncos | $8,000 |
| 3 | Kirk Cousins | vs Cowboys | $6,400 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | vs Raiders | $6,900 |
| 5 | Dak Prescott | at Falcons | $6,300 |
Rams at Seahawks has the third highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week and Geno Snith is at home against a Rams defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Smith leads the league in passing yards per game (274.6) and leads an offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and second in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE).
Lamar Jackson had a down game last week and has a tough matchup on paper this week against a Broncos defense that ranks second best in EPA/Play Allowed and first in Dropback EPA Allowed. Those factors will keep Jackson low-owned this week. Take advantage. Jackson gets to play at home and he's the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL. He leads all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (27.1) and ranks seventh in passing yards per game (262.4) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.1). He leads a Ravens offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play.
Cowboys at Falcons has the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week and Kirk Cousins is the home quarterback in a great matchup against a banged-up Cowboys defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Cousins has been awesome this year. He ranks fifth in passing yards per game (263.3) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Dak Prescott is a strong play as well. Prescott ranks fourth in passing yards per game (263.6) and leads a Cowboys offense that ranks fourth in EDPF and seventh in PROE. This projects as a back-and-forth fireworks fest as Prescott also has a favorable matchup against a Falcons defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Joe Burrow leads an extremely pass-heavy offense that ranks second in EDPF and first in PROE. This approach has been successful for Cincinnati and Burrow leads an offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play and ranks ninth in passing yards per game (249.1) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9). Burrow is at home and the Bengals season is on the line. He could go bonkers against an average Raiders defense.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Brown | vs Raiders | $5,900 |
| 2 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | vs Commanders | $5,500 |
| 3 | Ken Walker III | vs Rams | $7,300 |
| 4 | Saquon Barkley | vs Jaguars | $8,200 |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson | vs Cowboys | $7,400 |
| 6 | De'Von Achane | at Bills | $6,700 |
| 7 | Chuba Hubbard | vs Saints | $6,500 |
| 8 | Kyren Williams | at Seahawks | $8,000 |
| 9 | Jahmyr Gibbs | at Packers | $7,600 |
Zack Moss is doubtful due to a neck injury. His workload was reduced in October but he still averaged 9.5 opportunities per game over those four contests. His absence is a massive upgrade for Chase Brown's projection. Brown has already averaged 15.8 opportunities per game over the past five games with Mos in the lineup. The Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites and Brown has a decent matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks middle of the pack (17th) in Rush EPA Allowed.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has cleared concussion protocol and will play on Sunday. His status was up in the air during the week and a cloud of confusion hovers over concussions so expect Tracy to come in low owned. That's exciting. He's priced at just $5,500 and is at home against a Commanders defense that ranks just 20th in EPA/Play Allowed. Tracy just put his extreme talent and athleticism on display last week turning 22 touches into 150 total yards and 1 touchdown.
Ken Walker III is arguably the most explosive running back in the NFL and he's at home against a Rams defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed. A major development for Walker has been his usage in the passing game this season. He has seen five or more targets in four of six games so far this season. Walker's dual-threat usage gives him explosive upside in a matchup like this.
Saquon Barkley ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.6), second in total yards per game (124.6), and tenth in total touchdowns (6). The Eagles are 7.5-point home favorites and Barkley will get a chance to beat up on a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Playh Allowed.
Cowboys at Falcons has the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week and dual-threat Bijan Robinson could have a field day against a banged-up and bad Cowboys defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Rush EPA Allowed. Robinson ranks 16th in opportunities per game (18.8) and tenth in total yards per game (98).
De'Von Achane has been a monster in Tua Tagovailoa's three starts this season. His 21.3 opportunities per game would rank in sixth in the league and his 137.3 total yards per game would lead the NFL. Achane's target totals in those three games: 7, 7, and 8. The dual-threat will be needed massively if the Bills hope to take down the Bills.
Jonathan Brooks reportedly will not be activated for this game, putting Chuba Hubbard in line for yet another large workload. Hubbard ranks 20th in the league in opportunities per game (18) and 22nd in total yards per game (87.6). He's a solid player and gets to play at home against a Saints defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Kyren Williams ranks second in the NFL in opportunities per game (23), 19th in total yards per game (89), and second in total touchdowns (10). Rams at Seahawks has the third highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week and Sean McVay is expected to continue to ride Williams in a crucial divisional matchup against an average Seahawks defense that ranks 19th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.
The Lions offense continues to dominate and the extremely talented Jahmyr Gibbs is starting to get really hot. He now ranks sixth in total yards per game (106.4) and fourth in total touchdowns (7). The Packers can be attacked on the ground as their defense ranks just 21st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | vs Raiders | $8,600 |
| 2 | A.J. Brown | vs Jaguars | $8,100 |
| 3 | Chris Olave | at Panthers | $6,100 |
| 4 | Drake London | vs Cowboys | $6,700 |
| 5 | Terry McLaurin | at Giants | $7,100 |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp | at Seahawks | $7,700 |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | at Packers | $7,900 |
| 8 | Khalil Shakir | vs Dolphins | $5,900 |
| 9 | Xavier Legette | vs Saints | $5,300 |
Ja'Marr Chase ranks fifth in receiving yards (84.3) and leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns (7). Tee Higgins is doubtful and looks to be missing another game. Chase is the clear-cut alpha in an extremely pass-heavy offense that ranks second in EDPF and first in PROE. He could go nuclear at home against an average Raiders defense.
A.J. Brown is a big play alpha. He ranks second in the league in receiving yards per game (102) and has a dream matchup at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed. Brown offers tournament-winning upside every time he steps on the field and especially in a favorable spot like this.
Chris Olave is also a strong cash play, but the upside is there to be a tournament winner in a fantastic spot against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Rashid Shaheed is out for the season and without him, Olave caught 8 of 14 passes for 107 yards last week. Olave is the clear-cut alpha now.
Drake London had a down game last week so it's the perfect time to get right back on the saddle in Week 9. London ranks 11th in the league in targets per game (8.5) and eighth in receptions per game (6). Cowboys at Falcons has the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week and the matchup is incredible at home against a banged-up Cowboys defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Terry McLaurin is an elite down-the-field big play threat paired with a fantastic deep ball passer in rookie Jayden Daniels. After a slow first two games of the season, things have been clicking well for this duo. McLaurin ranks ninth in the NFL in receiving yards per game (72.4) and has a matchup he can win against a Giants defense that ranks middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed (16th) and Dropback EPA Allowed (15th).
Cooper Kupp returned from injury last week and posted a solid game, catching 5 of 8 targets for 51 yards and 1 touchdown. Puka Nacua is now questionable after injuring the same knee for a third time. Even if he plays, expect him to be less than 100%. This projects as a Kupp alpha game in a favorable fantasy game against a Seahawks defense that ranks 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Amon-Ra St. Brown only saw two targets last week but before that, he had seen six or more targets in five of six games this season. Jameson Williams remains suspended so this could very well be a situation where it boomerangs back to St. Brown being the beneficiary of such a potent Lions' offensive attack. Lions at Packers has the third highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week and St. Brown projects to be needed whether Jordan Love plays or not since Green Bay's organization and offensive structure under Matt LaFleur remains strong.
Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel are both questionable and Khalil Shakir proved he was fully healed from his own injury he dealt with earlier in the season, catching 9 of 10 targets for 107 yards last week. Shakir is a talented player and is playing at home in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (49.5) of the week against a Dolphins defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Xavier Legette is listed as questionable so his status will need to be monitored Sunday morning. He got in two limited practices so expect him to play and we'll know before any action begins as the Panthers have an early game. If Legette is active, he projects as the Panthers wide receiver one now that Diontae Johnson has been traded and Adam Thielen listed as doubtful. Legette is a size and speed athletic freak who has a decent matchup at home against a Saints defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam LaPorta | at Packers | $4,800 |
| 2 | Jake Ferguson | at Falcons | $5,100 |
| 3 | Evan Engram | at Eagles | $5,300 |
| 4 | Mike Gesicki | vs Raiders | $3,100 |
Sam LaPorta has had a disappointing season but there was a glimmer of hope last week with Jameson Williams on the shelf. Jared Goff only attempted 15 passes in a blowout but still, LaPorta saw a massive 40% target share, catching all six targets for 48 yards and 1 touchdown. This matchup projects to be closer, Goff projects to throw more, Williams is still suspended, and the Packers defense has allowed the tenth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.2) this season.
Jake Ferguson has had a very quiet past two games and Dallas' bye week was mixed in there as well. Thus, Ferguson hasn't posed a strong fantasy game since October 6th. That month-long "absence" will cause Ferguson's ownership to be low due to recency bias despite this incredible spot and Ferguson seeing a solid eight targets last week. Cowboys at Falcons has the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week and he gets a Falcons defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Christian Kirk is out and Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are both questionable. Evan Engram saw ten targets and out up over 100 yards just a few weeks ago. That upside looks squarely within his range of outcomes due to the injuries around him increasing his target projection and the matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tee Higgins missed last week. Mike Gesicki played on a season-high 53% of the offensive snaps and caught 7 of 8 targets for 73 yards in an increased role as he was needed to carry more of a load due to the significant absence of Higgins. Higgins is doubtful and projected to miss yet another game, making Gesicki a sneaky tournament stack at home in a decent matchup.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Commanders | at Giants | $3,400 |
| 2 | Patriots | at Titans | $3,000 |
Daniel Jones has been sacked (25) the second-most times in the NFL this season. The Commanders defensive unit played better ball in October led by defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn. The Commanders are 3.5-point favorites.
Mason Rudolph isn't much of an upgrade over Will Levis. He's thrown three interceptions in three games. New England's defense will be low-owned and could make a few big plays with defensive-minded head coach Jerod Mayo leading the way.
Key Injuries
- DK Metcalf and Noah Fant both OUT
- Upgrade Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Jake Bobo and AJ Barner
- Tee Higgins Doubtful
- Upgrade Ja'Marr Chase, Andre Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, and Jermaine Burton
- Zack Moss Doubtful
- Upgrade Chase Brown
- Christian Kirk OUT and Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis both Questionable and don't play until the late window
- Upgrade Brian Thomas Jr. and/or Gabe Davis if they are active as well as Parker Washington and Evan Engram
- Jonathan Brooks not expected to be activated
- Upgrade Chuba Hubbard
- Tony Pollard Questionable and Tyjae Spears OUT
- Upgrade Tony Pollard if he is active (Early game so we'll know) or Julius Chestnut if Pollard is out
- Rashid Shaheed OUT
- Upgrade Chris Olave
- Kendre Miller OUT and Jamaal Williams Doubtful
- Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill
- Jameson Williams OUT (Suspension)
- Upgrade Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, and Kalif Raymond
- Travis Etienne Jr.. Game Time Decision
- Upgrade Tank Bigsby if Etienne does not play
- Adam Thielen Doubtful and Diontae Johnson Traded
- Upgrade Xavier Legette (Questionable), Jalen Coker, Ja'Tavion Sanders, and Jonathan Mingo
- Dallas Goedert OUT
- Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
- Jordan Love Questionable and doesn't play until the late window
- Puka Nacua and Jordan Whittington both Questionable and don't play until the late window
- Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. both Questionable and don't play until the late window
- Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel both Questionable
- Drake Maye Questionable
- Xavier Legette Questionable
- Brian Robinson Jr Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Kirk Cousins, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, or Darnell Mooney
- Runback Options: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and/or Jalen Tolbert
- Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and/or Mike Gesicki
- Runback Options: Brock Bowers or Jakobi Meyers