Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 47.5
• Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 47.5
• Atlanta Falcons at Tamp Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 46
• Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders - Over/Under 43.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Ravens on road vs Browns - Implied Team Total 26.8
• Lions at home vs Titans - Implied Team Total 28.5
• Packers on road vs Jaguars - Implied Team Total 27.8
• Dolphins at home vs Cardinals - Implied Team Total 25.3
• Chiefs on road vs Raiders - Implied Team Total 25.5
• Broncos at home vs Panthers - Implied Team Total 26.3
• Texans at home vs Colts - Implied Team Total 26.3
• Chargers at home vs Saints - Implied Team Total 23.3
• Jets on road vs Patriots - Implied Team Total 24.3

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ranks first at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (27.6), ninth in passing yards per game (258.6), fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1), and leads a Ravens offense that ranks first in EPA/Play. He has a favorable matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jordan Love ranks first in passing yards per game (270.2), first in pass touchdowns per game (3), and leads a Packers offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play. Love projects to go off against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Jaguars defense ranks 30th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Caleb Williams' passing stat lines in his last two games before Chicago's Week 7 bye: 304 yards and 2 touchdowns and 226 yards and 4 touchdowns. Williams is priced at just $6,000 and gets a good matchup against a Commanders defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jared Goff continues to dominate while leading a Lions offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play. Goff ranks second in passing yards per game (268.3), and ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7). Goff is at home against an average Titans defense that ranks 16th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ranks eighth in opportunities per game (20.4), first in total yards per game (133.6), and first in total touchdowns (10). The Ravens are ten-point favorites and Henry gets a Browns defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Saquon Barkley ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.3), second in total yards per game (126.8), and fourth in total touchdowns (6). He's playing in a favorable fantasy game environment with a 47.5 Over/Under against a Bengals defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Breece Hall's opportunities in two games with new offensive coordinator Todd Downing: 24 and 21. His 19.7 opportunities per game already ranks 12th in the NFL and his 93.6 total yards per game ranks 15th. The Jets are seven-point favorites and Hall gets a vulnerable Patriots defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.

The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites against the banged-up Buccaneers and Bijan Robinson has a solid matchup on tap against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 16th in Rush EPA Allowed. Robinson ranks 15th in opportunities per game (18.7) and 11th in total yards per game (97.7).

Joe Mixon has been dominant when healthy this year. He ranks second in opportunities per game (22.8) and third in total yards per game (121). The Colts have been solid against the run this season but the Texans are six-point home favorites.

The Packers are 4.5-point favorites against a struggling Jaguars team so this projects as a favorable rushing game script for Josh Jacobs. He ranks tenth in opportunities per game (19.9) and 14th in total yards per game (93.9). Jacksonville has been strong against the run but overall, their defense ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Ken Walker III's season-long per-game statistics surprisingly don't stand out. But that won't stop me from recommending one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. Walker has seen eight targets in two of his five healthy games this year and has been a constant in the passing game unlink in seasons past. Walker is at home in a favorable fantasy game environment against a Bills defense that ranks middle of the pack (17th) in EPA/Play Allowed.

Kareem Hunt, surprisingly, is priced at just $6,300. He literally leads the NFL in opportunities per game (23) and ranks 12th in total yards per game (95). The Chiefs are ten-point favorites and Hunt gets a Raiders defense that only ranks 21st in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins remains out and Stefon Diggs has seen seven or more targets in five straight games. Diggs has a favorable matchup in the dome against a Colts defense that has struggled to defend wide receivers this season.

DK Metcalf is doubtful, which elevates the target projections for both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. Seattle's offense ranks third in both Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and they're at home against a Bills defense that only ranks 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Both are strong plays but Smith-Njigba has seen nine more targets than Lockett on the year and is the preferred play if choosing between the two.

Jordan Love ranks first in both passing yards per game (270.2) and pass touchdowns per game (3). Romeo Doubs is paired with the right quarterback in an awesome offense. Doubs scored two touchdowns in Week 6 and caught eight of ten targets for 94 yards in Week 7. Doubs is in a fantastic spot against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Jaguars defense ranks 30th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

The Chargers passing offense is starting to heat up. Justin Herbert threw for a season-high 349 yards in Week 7. Ladd McConkey leads the Chargers in targets (39), receptions (24), and receiving yards (265). McConkey is priced at just $5,100 and is playing at home against a Saints defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Davante Adams is gone and the Raiders are ten-point underdogs at home against the Chiefs. They'll be throwing a lot. Jakobi Meyers returns from injury this week and immediately steps in to the wide receiver one role for the Raiders. He's a solid player who has seen 9, 10, and 9 targets over his past three games. The guaranteed volume is there, which is exactly what we're looking for in cash.

Tight Ends

Amari Cooper is gone and David Njoku is healthy again. That led to Njoku seeing 14 targets last week, catching 10 of them for 76 yards and 1 touchdown. Even better, Deshaun Watson is out for the season. Watson was the worst quarterback in football so the presence of Jameis Winston is a boost for Njoku. He's a cash lock.

Brock Bowers leads the tight end position in targets (59), receptions (47), and receiving yards (477). Davante Adams is gone and the Raiders are ten-point underdogs at home against the Chiefs. They'll be throwing a lot.

Luke Musgrave remains out and Tucker Kraft had already overtaken him when healthy anyway. Kraft played on 95% of the offensive snaps last week and ranks eighth at the tight end position in DraftKings points per game (10.4).

Hunter Henry is priced at just $3,800 despite his recent massive quarterback upgrade. In Drake Maye's two starts, Henry has put up lines of 3 for 41 and 1 and 8 for 92. Henry ranks sixth at the tight end position in targets (36).

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out and Cade Otton's usage spiked after they both were lost last week. Otton caught 8 of 10 targets for 100 yards in Week 7 and has a friendly matchup against a Falcons defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

Andy Dalton, Diontae Johnson, and Adam Thielen are all out. Bryce Young's NFL career has been a disaster to date. The Broncos are nine-point home favorites and have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Mason Rudolph is an improvement over Will Levis but not by much. The Lions are 11-point home favorites and will have plenty of chances to get sacks and force turnovers.

Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed are both out. The Saints offense is in rough shape and now must go play on the road against a strong Chargers unit. The Chargers are seven-point home favorites. Spencer Rattler has been sacked 11 times in two games.

Davante Adams is gone and starting quarterback, Aidan O'Connell, is out with a broken thumb. The Chiefs have arguably the league's best defense and are ten-point favorites.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

This Eagles at Bengals game has a healthy 47.5 Over/Under and has shootout potential. Both offenses should be able to find success against two struggling defenses. Joe Burrow leads a Bengals offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He ranks 11th in passing yards per game (251.3) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (2). Burrow is at home against a poor Eagles defense that only ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

This Eagles at Bengals game has a healthy 47.5 Over/Under and has shootout potential. Both offenses should be able to find success against two struggling defenses. Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat quarterback who ranks seventh in DraftKings points per game (20.4) at the position aided by four rushing touchdowns. He leads an Eagles offense that ranks 10th in EPA/Play. Hurts gets to attack a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

This Bills at Seahawks game has sneaky shootout potential and has a solid 47.5 Over/Under. Josh Allen has been a fantasy football powerhouse for years and ranks fifth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (20.6) this season. He ranks ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7) and leads a Bills offense that ranks third in EPA/Play. While this game is in Seattle, the Seahawks defense has surprisingly struggled under head coach, Mike Macdonald, ranking 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tua Tagovailoa returns from a long absence, which means he'll be low-owned due to recency bias and injury concerns. A low-owned Tagovailoa is very intriguing in tournaments, especially since he's only priced at $6,100. He threw for 338 yards in his one healthy start and is at home against one of the worst defenses in football. The Cardinals defense ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropnback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

The Lions are an offensive machine, as they have been for a few seasons now. They are 11-point home favorites against a bad Titans team. Detroit's offense ranks 30th in both EDPF and PROE, meaning they're one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery offer extreme upside in this spot. Both of them rank fourth in total touchdowns (6) this season.

Jonathan Taylor returns this week. As we know, extended absences cause low ownership percentages upon return due to recency bias and injury concerns. Taylor ranks seventh in the NFL in both opportunities per game (20.5) and total yards per game (106.5). Playing next to Anthony Richardson, Taylor offers elite weekly upside.

James Conner continues to prove he's a solid player and, quite frankly, the heart and soul of the Cardinals 2024 offense. Conner ranks 17th in the league in both opportunities per game (18.3) and total yards per game (91.9). This game has sneaky shootout potential with a strong 47.5 Over/Under and Conner gets an average Dolphins defense that ranks 17th in Rush EPA Allowed.

This Bills at Seahawks game has sneaky shootout potential and has a solid 47.5 Over/Under. James Cook saw just 12 opportunities in his first game back from injury last week but 23 opportunities in his last healthy game before that. Cook's workload could increase in this one against a Seahawks defense that has surprisingly struggled under head coach, Mike Macdonald, ranking 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.

J.K. Dobbins is a strong play in all formats but due to his recent average performances, projects to be low-owned enough to make sense in tournaments. Dobbins ranks 16th in the NFL in both opportunities per game (18.5) and total yards per game (92.3). The Chargers are seven-point home favorites and Dobbins has a fantastic matchup against a Saints defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.

Javonte Williams remains the Broncos starting running back and finally put together a strong game last week putting up 111 total yards and 2 touchdowns when the Broncos trounced the Saints. This week the Broncos are nine-point home favorites against the dreadful Panthers whose defense ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. Expect more of the same this week.

D'Andre Swift had a bad start to the season but prior to the bye, put up three great games in a row: 165 total yards and 1 touchdown, 120 total yards and 1 touchdown, and 119 total yards and 1 touchdown. Swift ranks 14th in the NFL in opportunities per game (19) and gets a Commanders defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Chase Brown tied a season-high 15 carries last week and remains a factor in the passing game as well. The talented dual-threat's playing time continues to increase, helping to make Brown a fun and intriguing tournament play in one of the best fantasy games of the week. Brown gets an Eagles defense that isn't scary at all. They rank 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 14th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

This Eagles at Bengals game has a healthy 47.5 Over/Under and has shootout potential. Both offenses should be able to find success against two struggling defenses. Ja'Marr Chase plays in a Bengals offense that ranks second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Chase ranks third in receiving yards per game (88.6) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (6). He has huge upside in this awesome fantasy game at home against a poor Eagles defense that only ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed. But want to take advantage of this situation and need to save salary? Tee Higgins is priced $2,000 less and has out-targeted Chase 45-37 in his five healthy games. However, Higgins is questionable and his status must be monitored.

A.J. Brown also benefits from playing in this potential shootout and also has a great matchup against a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. Brown has been incredible when healthy this year. He ranks 16th in targets per game (8), second in receiving yards per game (108), and has scored a touchdown in all three games he's played in. But want to take advantage of this situation and need to save salary? Devonta Smith is guaranteed to be low-owned after putting up -2 receiving yards last week. Smith was still productive in Week 1 with Brown, catching 7 of 8 targets for 84 yards.

Tyreek Hill is listed as questionable so his status must be monitored. He ranked second in targets per game (10.5), first in receiving yards per game (114.5), and second in touchdown receptions (12) last season. In Week 1 with Tua Tagovailoa this season Hill caught 7 of 12 targets for 130 yards and 1 touchdown. Tagovailoa is back and Hill has a fantastic matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropnback EPA Allowed.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks 13th in targets per game (8.3) and just caught all 8 of his targets for 112 yards and 1 touchdown last week. The Lions are 11-point home favorites so this could very well be a ground-and-pound game. That is what the consensus believes though. St. Brown could easily post a huge game at home against an average Titans defense that ranks 16th in Dropback EPA Allowed if Ben Johnson chooses to go that route.

Drake London ranks ninth in targets per game (8.9) and gets to face a vulnerable Buccaneers defense that only ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. London has caught a touchdown in five of seven games and seen eight or more targets in five straight. The first time the Falcons played the Buccaneers this season Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards and 4 touchdowns and London caught 12 of 13 targets for 154 yards and 1 touchdown.

Davante Adams is back with Aaron Rodgers and immediately saw nine targets in his New York Jet debut. Take advantage now before Adams posts his first huge game on his new team. It could very well be this week as Adams gets a bad Patriots defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tank Dell didn't catch a pass last Sunday so it's almost a lock he will be low-owned this week. Nico Collins remains out and Dell put up 7 for 57 and 1 on 9 targets in Week 6 without Collins. Go right back to the well as Dell is at home in a great matchup against a Colts defense that has struggled mightily to cover outside wide receivers this season.

Jayden Reed put up a stinker last week so let's go right back to him to take advantage of recency bias. Jordan Love ranks first in both passing yards per game (270.2) and pass touchdowns per game (3). And the matchup is unreal against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Reed still leads the Packers in targets (38), receptions (29), and receiving yards (452).

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce has struggled this season and the new addition of DeAndre Hopkins isn't likely to help. But this looks like a spike week in an otherwise average season. Hopkins isn't up to speed yet, and the Chiefs are ten-point favorites with a 25.5-point Implied Team Total. Patrick Mahomes II should find success here and that will correlate with Kelce's production.

Jameson Williams' suspension should force Ben Johnson and the Lions to remember they have Sam LaPorta on the team. LaPorta's talent hasn't gone anywhere. He's still the same player that ranked fourth in targets (118), fourth in receptions (86), fifth in receiving yards (889), and first in receiving touchdowns (10) at the tight end position last season. Now is a great time to play him at low ownership.

Trey McBride hasn't scored a touchdown yet this season while Kyler Murray has gone through passing struggles. We only need things to come together for one game though and that could be the case this week in an intriguing fantasy game against an average and banged-up Dolphins defense. McBride ranks second in targets (43) and third in receptions (33) so far this season.

Don't look now but over his last three games, Kyle Pitts has produced receiving lines of 88, 70, and 65. He just saw his season-high in targets (9) last week. The first time the Falcons played the Buccaneers this season Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Pitts gets to attack that same defense that only ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

There are obvious defensive plays this week but we know D/ST is the toughest position to predict in NFL DFS. The Texans make sense as they're six-point home favorites and Anthony Richardson is an extreme work in progress at the quarterback position.

A large portion of the fantasy community is excited for Jameis Winston to start so expect the Ravens D/ST to be barely owned. Baltimore is arguably the NFL's best team and they're ten-point favorites. Winston has played very little meaningful football over the past few years.

Key Injuries

• Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both OUT
  • Upgrade Trey Palmer, Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White, and Sterling Shepard
• DK Metcalf Doubtful
  • Upgrade Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, and Jake Bobo
• Nico Collins and Robert Woods both OUT
  • Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Xavier Hutchinson
• Rashee Rice OUT
  • Upgrade Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and Noah Gray
• Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed OUT
  • Upgrade Chris Olave and Chargers D/ST
• Jameson Williams OUT (Suspension)
  • Upgrade Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, and Kalif Raymond
• Deshaun Watson OUT
  • Upgrade Jameis Winston, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, and Cedric Tillman
• Jayden Daniels Game Time Decision
  • Upgrade Bears D/ST if Daniels does not play
• Travis Etienne Jr.. Game Time Decision
  • Upgrade Tank Bigsby if Etienne does not play
• Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson both OUT
  • Upgrade Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, Ja'Tavion Sanders, and Jonathan Mingo
• Andy Dalton Doubtful but Bryce Young has been announced the starter
  • Upgrade Broncos D/ST
• Aidan O'Connell OUT
  • Upgrade Chiefs D/ST
• Amari Cooper Traded
  • Upgrade David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman 
• Dallas Goedert OUT
  • Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
• Jerome Ford OUT
  • Upgrade Nick Chubb
• Allen Lazard Game Time Decision
  • Upgrade Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson
• Curtis Samuel OUT
  • Upgrade Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid
• Luke Musgrave OUT
  • Upgrade Tucker Kraft
• JuJu Smith-Schuster OUT
  • Upgrade DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce
• Tyreek Hill Questionable
• Tee Higgins Questionable
• Tyjae Spears Questionable

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• • Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins
    • Runback Options: Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, or DeVonta Smith
  • Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith
    • Runback Options: Ja'Marr Chase and/or Tee Higggins
  • Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill and/or Jaylen Waddle
    • Runback Options: James Conner, Trey McBride, or Marvin Harrison Jr..

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Derrick Henry
• Kareem Hunt
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• David Njoku
• Broncos D/ST

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Javonte Williams
• Davante Adams
• Tank Dell