Sometimes, I wonder why we do this to ourselves. Why do we play a game that becomes progressively harder and more maddening the farther into the season we get? Why do we engage in a hobby where one decision can mean the difference between joy and despair?
Don't get me wrong—I love fantasy football. But in the King's Classic Butkus Division league last week, I flat-out choked. Left the win on the bench. Make one decision differently, and I'm 4-1 instead of 3-2. I'm not saying that it has been driving me batcrap crazy all week long, but here I am with Week 6 underway, still complaining about my stupidity in Week 5.
I know how much y'all love to hear about my fantasy teams. Gotta give the readers what they want.
My point (I occasionally have one—why I always wear a hat) is this—every lineup call you make each and every week can be the difference between a win and a loss. And that one game can be the difference between making the playoffs or an early end to the season.
Every call matters—and the close calls can matter most of all. The toss-ups. The coin-flips. The brain-benders.
The point of this column is to help keep your brain unbent. OK—less bent.
It's OK. I don't judge.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If your decision is between a pair of elite options, then just figure out a way to start both.
Also, get bent.
See what I did there?
Close Call: Jordan Love, Green Bay (QB12) vs. Josh Allen, Buffalo (QB14)
The Case for Love: To be fair, the 2024 season hasn't really gone according to plan for Love. After getting a massive contract extension, Love has been inconsistent this season—partly due to an injured knee. He's completing just 56.1 percent of his passes, and Love's 85.9 passer rating is substantially lower than a year ago.
However, we have seen flashes of what Love can do—two weeks ago, he threw for 389 yards and four scores in a wild loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Love has a wideout corps loaded with young talent, and this week's opponent (the Arizona Cardinals) has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
The Case for Allen: Um, he's Josh Allen? Allen was the first quarterback drafted in many fantasy leagues this year. He was the highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy football a year ago. His rushing upside adds much more fantasy value, and in 2023, he piled up a ridiculous 15 rushing touchdowns.
The problem is that we haven't seen that Allen this year—at least not consistently. A banged-up Allen completed just 30 percent of his 30 pass attempts last week against the Houston Texans. He has just two rushing scores through five games in 2024. At this point in the season, Allen has posted two games with over 30 fantasy points—and three with under 15.
The Verdict: Love. This is where we're at with Allen. He's banged up. His wide receivers are as well—Khalil Shakir missed Week 5, and Curtis Samuel has missed practice time this week as well. Oh, and there isn't a team in the AFC giving up fewer fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year than the New York Jets.
Close Call: Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas (RB26) vs. Trey Sermon, Indianapolis (RB34)
The Case for Mattison: It was only a matter of time until the running back position became an injury-ravaged wasteland, and if you had Week 6 on your bingo card you just won a free ham. Zamir White of the Raiders missed Week 5, which opened the door for Alexander Mattison to lead all Las Vegas running backs with 17 touches against the Denver Broncos.
Mattison hasn't been especially effective on a per-touch basis this year—he's averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. But the 26-year-old has found the end zone twice in five games this season, has double-digit PPR points in three of five games, and has quietly hung around inside the top 30 backs for the year.
The Case for Sermon: The Colts have been hit by injuries just about everywhere on offense, and while the team may get quarterback Anthony Richardson back both wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr and running back Jonathan Taylor are expected to sit. Sermon missed practice Wednesday himself, but was back out there Thursday.
Functioning as Indy's lead back last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sermon turned 16 touches into 63 yards. Those yardage numbers aren't great, but thanks to six receptions and a score on the ground Sermon finished a down week for the position as the sixth-highest-scoring running back in fantasy.
The Verdict: Sermon. Neither of these running backs inspires a ton of confidence. Neither has played especially well this year. Both have matchups with defenses who rank outside the top 20 in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. But the Raiders are an even bigger mess offensively than the Colts and have a matchup with better odds of a negative game script.
Close Call: Jameson Williams, DET (WR30) vs. Jalen Tolbert, DAL (WR32)
The Case for Williams: After a red-hot start to the season, Williams put up a one-catch clunker in Week 3. But the former Alabama star rebounded in Week 4 with the most Williams of games—he only had two targets but caught both. One of them was a 70-yard touchdown.
Williams' target share is down of late—after 20 targets the first two games of the season, he's received just five in the last two contests. But Williams is averaging a gaudy 22.2 yards per catch, and this week's meeting between the Lions and Dallas Cowboys has all the makings of a shootout.
The Case for Tolbert: Have I mentioned that the Lions/Cowboys game has the makings of a shootout? It's the game with the highest Over/Under in Vegas (52) of the week. And while Rico Dowdle showed some signs of life last week in Pittsburgh, the Cowboys are still dead last in the NFC in rushing offense.
That means the Cowboys are going to be airing it out—and with Brandin Cooks on injured reserve, Tolbert had himself a game against the Steelers. Ten targets. Seven receptions. Eighty-seven yards. And a score. With defenses paying so much attention to CeeDee Lamb, Tolbert is seeing single coverage with regularity—and making the most of it.
The Verdict: Tolbert. This rather feels like a close call with no wrong answer—all it takes is one long catch for Williams to post a fat stat line, and the Dallas secondary is all kinds of beat up. But Tolbert's target share appears steadier—and the Lions have given up the most PPR points in the NFC to wide receivers in 2024.
Close Call: Chris Olave, New Orleans (WR36) vs. Christian Kirk, Jacksonville (WR38)
The Case for Olave: It's been a rough year for Olave—five weeks into the season, he is averaging fewer than six targets a game, has just 22 receptions for 275 yards and a single touchdown, and ranks outside the top 30 wide receivers in PPR points. Olave's brother is publicly calling out the Saints' usage of the third-year pro.
But we're still talking about a wide receiver who was drafted inside the top 12 at his position with regularity this summer. There was a reason for that—Olave has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to open his career, and new Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler is going to need Olave to step up if the Saints are going to have offensive success.
The Case for Kirk: Over the first two weeks of the season, Kirk was on the proverbial milk carton. But his usage in the Jacksonville offense has increased of late—double-digit targets in Weeks 3 and 4, and a season-high 88 receiving yards in last week's win over the Indianapolis Colts.
Brian Thomas Jr.. has supplanted Kirk as the team's No. 1 wide receiver—Thomas has posted WR1 numbers as a rookie. But over the last three games Kirk has been a top-20 PPR option in his own right. This week's London tilt with the Bears isn't a great matchup, but Kirk is back on the WR3 radar despite that slow start.
The Verdict: Olave. I wrote this summer that Olave was being overdrafted, but he's going to rebound at some point from the funk he's in right now—he's just too good a player not to. Frankly, the Saints need to scheme more looks for their best wideout—and this week's NFC South matchup with a Bucs team allowing the sixth-most PPR points to wideouts this year is a good place to start.
Close Call: Isaiah Likely, Baltimore (TE12) vs. Dalton Schultz, Houston (TE14)
The Case for Likely: If you're into feast vs. famine at the tight end position, then Likely is likely your boy (Clever, huh?). A massive game in Week 1 that was one toenail from being that much bigger. Two touchdown catches in Week 5's wild win over the Bengals. And not a whole lot in between.
Despite his pogo-stick season, in a year where the tight end position is a waking nightmare Likely actually ranks inside the top-five in PPR points. And while the Washington Commanders are one of the hottest teams in the league, Washington's defense has been uneven this season.
The Case for Schultz: With wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon joining the team in the offseason, it was anticipated that Schultz's role in the Texans offense would decrease. Sure enough, the veteran tight end is 17th among tight ends in targets this year, averaging fewer than five a game.
However, the situation has changed. Mixon has missed multiple games with a high-ankle sprain. And now, their star wideout will miss at least a month after landing in injured reserve. C.J. Stroud will need other pass-catchers to step up—and he has some rapport with Schultz dating back to last season.
The Verdict: Schultz. This is a tough one—Likely's red-zone prowess this season can't be ignored. But he had just 13 receiving yards last week and hasn't been targeted more than three times since that Week 1 outburst. Washington is also 28th in PPR points given up to tight ends this season. Likely has a higher ceiling, but Schultz's floor wins out here.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.
