Buy Low, Sell High: Week 12

Our Sigmund Bloom examines players you should target or try to move on from.

Sigmund Bloom's Buy Low, Sell High: Week 12 Sigmund Bloom Published 11/21/2024

© Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Sell High

Jameis Winston (QB-CLE), Jerry Jeudy (WR-CLE), Cedric Tillman (WR-CLE)

Winston has had two big games and one smaller game as a fantasy quarterback since taking over the helm for the Browns. The good games came against the suspect Ravens and Saints pass defense. Only a late garbage time touchdown kept him and his targets from being fantasy liabilities against the Chargers. The quality of the Browns passing game with Winston is somewhere in between those two results, but with two Steelers matchups plus the Chiefs and Broncos over the next four games, expect a regression for the Browns offense that could render David Njoku the only useful and consistent fantasy play. Week 16 at Cincinnati has a brighter outlook, but Week 17 is outdoors against an improving Dolphins defense. Winston might not have as much value as hoped in 2QB/Superflex, and his targets might not be reliable. Tillman, in particular, could have surprising value in dynasty leagues as his best football is ahead of him, and Jeudy has name value. The Browns are heading for a lot of uncertainty, so trying to cash in pieces of their passing game coming off of a 395-yard game for Winston seems like a good idea.

James Cook (RB-BUF)

Cook scored twice last week, but his snap count is starting to go down, and he could be looking at more of a committee split with ascendant rookie Ray Davis. While he has been a fantasy success because of 10 rushing scores and occasional outbursts as a receiver, Cook doesn’t appear to be on track to be a truly foundational feature back. He might be a coveted dynasty commodity as a running back on his rookie contract, especially for a team that needs running back help in a championship push. They may overpay for Cook as a long-term cornerstone, when in actuality, his value is probably at the highest point it will be during his career, barring a second contract in 2026 for a team that wants to make him a true feature back. That is so far off on the horizon, with so much uncertainty between now and then, that it’s best to sell Cook now unless you can’t afford to in a title run of your own.

Brock Purdy (QB-SF), Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR-SF)

It’s hard to know exactly what is going on with Purdy’s right shoulder, but he didn’t throw in practice on Wednesday and hasn’t looked as sharp as a passer in recent games. While his running ability is making up for that in fantasy, the offense could be in danger of collapse if Purdy can’t make all the throws necessary to keep defenses loosened up. George Kittle and Trent Williams are the two most important players in this offense other than Purdy, and neither of them is 100% right now. Purdy is probably not a preferred QB1 option, but maybe you can deal him in a redraft league with six teams on bye. Samuel is even more important to trade away with uncertainty in his 2025 profile and the problem of whether any team other than the 49ers will see him as an essential offensive piece because he doesn’t run a traditional wide receiver route tree. Samuel isn’t the #1 receiver even with Brandon Aiyuk out for the year, and there’s no reason to think his role will be larger than it is now, even if he is with the 49ers next year. His value is only going down from here.

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Buy Low

Luke McCaffrey (WR-WAS) - Both metrics and tape agree that McCaffrey has been playing much better than his stats this year. He’s only a rookie and a convert from quarterback, so the best is clearly yet to come for the player who projects as Jayden Daniels’ #2 receiver long-term. McCaffrey’s dynasty value probably doesn’t fully reflect the promise of his performance and the ability to grow with Daniels into a great middle of the field and run-after-catch threat with Terry McLaurin’s deep ball game stretching defenses and a robust running attack keeping boxes light. McCaffrey is a terrific target in trades and probably worth a 2025 second-round pick, no matter whether you are rebuilding or in win-now mode. If he is on a contender’s team and you are stripping down your dynasty roster for parts, make sure to go strong to the hole for McCaffrey.

Dylan Laube (RB-LV) - This is a huge weekend for Laube, who could easily stake his claim to a piece of the Raiders backfield in the long term with a good performance against the Broncos. Laube is on the Austin Ekeler-Danny Woodhead axis, an advanced receiving back with enough wiggle, burst, and toughness to hang as a runner. That’s the foundation of a solid RB2/Flex option, even if Zamir White evolves into the early-down option the Raiders hoped he would become this year. Laube is a Matt Waldman favorite, and he fits in well on a team that will be playing from behind with a quarterback who doesn’t mind going down swinging. He might be free on your dynasty waiver wire.

Sell Low

Jaylen Waddle (WR-MIA) - Waddle might be a legitimate sabotage drop in redraft leagues. The only bad scenario is if he actually heats up enough to post two strong games in a row and restore our confidence in him as startable. There’s no sign of that on the horizon, and the Dolphins offense has lost its downfield passing chops. They also have an expanded target tree with Jonnu Smith coming on and Malik Washington and Odell Beckham Jr ready to pitch in. For the long term, Waddle sure has the feel of a player who will tease us with what is possible from time to time but never have anything come together for a sustained period. If you can get a good first-round pick for him or make a lateral move to another foundational wide receiver with a small throw-in pick or player, it’s time to consider the move.

Travis Kelce (TE-KC) - If your dynasty trade deadline hasn’t passed, sell Kelce to the highest bidder. The Chiefs offense has JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeAndre Hopkins, and Marquise Brown could return soon. Noah Gray caught two scores last week. Isiah Pacheco is due back soon to boost the running game. Kelce is going to return to his “save yourself for the playoffs” role and probably disappoint in fantasy leagues just like he did earlier in the season. Even if Kelce is your primary tight end and you are a contender, it is probably best to sell in dynasty leagues while his necessity-driven midseason outburst is still fresh in everyone’s minds.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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