Buy Low, Sell High: Week 11

Our Sigmund Bloom examines players you should target or try to move on from.

Sigmund Bloom's Buy Low, Sell High: Week 11 Sigmund Bloom Published 11/14/2024

© Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Sell Low

D'Andre Swift (RB-CHI) - You might be able to sell Swift at a good percentage of what he was worth before the Bears offense bottomed out on the hope that Thomas Brown will at least be a placebo for the most disappointing offense in the league. Swift was a favorite of this regime, but it’s possible that a new coaching staff next year might not see him as a clear #1 - the Lions didn’t - and the reality is that Swift is still near his peak value in dynasty leagues. He could maintain this value for another year or even two - he’s only 25 - but Swift’s career to this point suggests that it’s more likely that he’ll regress to committee back level. The Bears face NFC North opponents in six of their last eight games. The only plus rushing matchup left on the schedule is the Seahawks. Seven of Swift’s last eight games will come against top nine rushing defenses. Time to get out.

Breece Hall (RB-NYJ) - It’s time to accept that Hall isn’t going to live up to what he did in the second half of 2023 this season and maybe ever. Braelon Allen being better than expected earlier than expected is just part of the story. The Jets are about to go through some major churn in the front office, coaching staff, and roster, and who knows what they will think of Hall? Who knows if Aaron Rodgers will return? Is it a good or bad thing for Hall if he does? He’ll also hit free agency in 2026, and who knows how the market will receive him. He’s highly unlikely to be the true bell cow we envisioned going into fantasy drafts this year, and he might not even be the #1 back on his team when he signs his second contract. There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead for Hall, but you might be able to deal him to someone who still believes in the possibility of Hall becoming the most valuable running back in fantasy that many saw going into this season.

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Buy Low

Dalton Kincaid (TE-BUF) - Kincaid isn’t a buy in redraft, and you probably couldn’t sell him anyway now that he’s down with a knee injury. It has been long enough since dynasty players spent a first-round pick on Kincaid that you might be able to get him at a discount. The early career breakout of Brock Bowers and Kincaid not even being the most valuable tight end in the class of 2023 should be creating impatience. Many tight ends take a few years to hit their stride, and the Bills offense spreads the ball around by design. He can still get to fantasy TE1 cruising altitude next year, and most importantly, Kincaid is attached to one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Do a price check offer in dynasty.

Drake Maye (QB-NE), Kayshon Boutte (WR-NE), DeMario Douglas (WR-NE) - The Patriots offense is a frequent listing here lately, and that’s not going to change just because they didn’t need to break a sweat to beat a dysfunctional Bears team. The next three matchups against the Rams, Dolphins, and Colts should get Maye into aggressive passing mode. New England faces Buffalo twice in addition to the Chargers and Cardinals after their Week 14 bye, so all of these games could force Maye to take more of the offense on his shoulders to keep his team in it. Douglas is the most skilled receiver on the team and most likely to lead them in targets for the rest of the season, but Boutte is probably cheaper, and he was the only full-time receiver last week. Remember, there was a time that Boutte was considered possibly to be the next great LSU wide receiver prospect, but there were lots of on and off-field concerns that dropped him well into the third day. He has survived regime change, and his role in the offense is larger than ever. If he’s free in your dynasty league, find a way to pick him up.

Baker Mayfield (QB-TB), Mike Evans (WR-TB), Bucky Irving (RB-TB) - The Bucs offense has had a little lull since Evans and Chris Godwin went out, but not as bad as you’d think. In fact, it was good enough to take last year’s Super Bowl teams to overtime and down to the last minute in the last two weeks. The return of Evans should get the pass offense off of the ground again, and Tampa faces a creampuff schedule of NYG-CAR-LV-LAC-DAL-CAR after the bye. Mayfield can easily return to QB1 status, Evans should feast as the primary target for Mayfield, and Irving should get a lot of carries salting away leads in the second half with a week of rest for his bum toe. Evans should be available in dynasty leagues if he’s not on a contender's team.

Brian Thomas Jr.. (WR-JAX) - Do we trust the Jaguars to bring Trevor Lawrence back after the bye? It is better for the long term if they lose, but it is better for Thomas and the offense if Lawrence returns. In redraft leagues, Thomas is probably cheap right now as he’s unplayable with Mac Jones and then is off next week. If you think the Jaguars will play it straight up, Thomas could end up being a great redraft buy.

Buy High

Kyler Murray (QB-ARI) - Murray had his best fantasy game of the season going into the bye, and the Cardinals didn’t even had to play aggressively in the second half because they led big. It seems like Murray and the rest of the Cardinals' offensive pieces are getting comfortable in Drew Petzing’s offensive scheme. Arizona still has two games left against the Seahawks plus Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams in Weeks 16 and 17, so Murray could be a league winner at quarterback if he can stay at this high level of play.

Sell High

Travis Kelce (TE-KC) - Has Kelce been getting gobs of targets by merit or necessity? With JuJu Smith-Schuster likely back this week, the Chiefs have two viable wide receivers now, and that could widen the target enough to keep Kelce’s branch from being able to support a weekly advantage at tight end. If you are holding him in a dynasty league and aren’t contending or don’t need him, you should probably just take the best offer for him now instead of hoping you’ll be able to get a better price in the offseason.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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