Boye Mafe: Will He Rebound in 2024?

IDP Fantasy Football is a game of trends. While these can be tricky to read, starting your endeavor in leagues like this with a plan is important. The ultimate agony is that there isn't a right way to read these. They are up for interpretation and sometimes are nothing more than information available to you. This is not the case when discussing Seattle's edge rusher, Boye Mafe. Early indications from looking at his statistics through two years may signal that he is in bust territory, considering his second-round capital in the NFL draft back in 2022. But there's a good chance we haven't seen peak Mafe just yet. Here is why Boye Mafe will rebound in the 2024 season.

What Went Wrong in 2023

To rebound from a season, we must understand what went wrong and why a season was bad. For Mafe, I wouldn't consider his season a bad one. Rather, it was disappointing. Too often, Mafe must rely on big plays to stay fantasy-relevant, and that sort of volatility can potentially lose weeks for your team. On three separate occasions last season, his only statistic was one sack. While that may sound great, it shows your true risk when playing him, especially in meaningful or must-win games. Mafe wasn't a credible enough player to risk games like that last season, contributing to a lower ADP and a high likelihood that his value is at a career low.  So, with all this negativity being present and available to you now, why should we believe that Mafe is a candidate to rebound this upcoming 2024 season?

This will sound like a contradiction to most of the articles in my repertoire, but the volatility that comes with Mafe is something that entices me. Unlike the linebacker position, the defensive end or edge position, in its nature, has volatility. The main task is to get after the opposing quarterback while the offensive line keeps the quarterback safe. Because of this, players like Mafe can be neutralized on any given Sunday due to double teams, play calling, or flat-out being beaten by the linemen. This wasn't necessarily Mafe's fault. The Seahawks had a bottom-tier defensive line last season that finished almost at the bottom in multiple categories last season. For players to get favorable opportunities 1-1 against opposing offensive lines, they must have credible teammates or at least teammates who can win at the point of attack. The Seahawks didn't make plays with this unit for most of last season. Despite this, Mafe had a career year in all metrics, the two most important being TFLs and Sacks.

A Great Streak of Production

Mafe had a stretch last season where he had a sack in seven straight games. While streaks like this aren't something fantasy managers should prepare for, seeing this early into his career is noteworthy. The ability to get hot and have dominating games is not something that we see from every player at his position, and if you pair this with the lack of production from his teammates, we see potential. When evaluating players primed for rebounds, we must investigate the potential for success. Mafe has this potential in his ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks. While nine sacks may not seem like a wow number, it was three times what he had his rookie season, and he achieved his career-high by Week 7. I do not believe this will be his career high come next offseason.

Low Cost to Acquire

Mafe isn't a rebound candidate just because of his potential. He is a prime candidate due to the cost of acquisition. Mafe is essentially free in most startups and redrafts, and in dynasty formats, he won't fetch more than a mid- to late-round pick at most. While this has nothing to do with his on-field projections for next season, it is important to note that a lot of the vibes and feelings we get from players are how they performed versus what we acquired them for. If you spent a high-caliber pick on Mafe last season, although he had a career year, there isn't any way you were happy with this performance or received more or equal value to what you paid. For context purposes, let's say you get Mafe for a last-round rookie draft pick in dynasty formats this season, and he achieves a career year. At that point, you look (and feel) like a genius and have acquired an asset to your team, whether a young depth player or an ascending star. Context is key in life, but there may be no better example than IDP Fantasy Football.

A More Stable Seahawks

The final reason Mafe will rebound this season is because Seattle has finally stabilized and found their identity. It's no secret that we are in unfamiliar territory with the Seahawks. We are completely removed from the Legion of Boom, Russell Wilson, and Pete Carroll days. While this may feel like living in the past, the entire identity of this once-successful franchise has changed. New stars will emerge, and new people will mold the locker room and on-field play. The team has invested in their defense this offseason, most notably with the acquisition of first-round pick Byron Murphy II. With Murphy adding to this defensive line and a second full year within this unit, including Leonard Williams, Dre'Mont Jones, and Uchenna Nwosu, we are seeing that potential for Mafe to get the 1-1 opportunities that we have seen him win in the past.

Closing

To have a decisive advantage against your opponent, you must be able to see around corners with players and target them earlier than others. Rebounding players are a great way to start when doing so. Everyone who plays this game has a basic understanding of the good guys. Not many people research to see if there is a player out there who may have just had a bad year but isn't bad. Using examples such as Mafe is a great way to identify these players, but Mafe is a great example on the IDP side of things for the reasons listed above.

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