Overvalued Players: 3 Safeties to Avoid

Photo: USA Today Sports

The flip side of succeeding with undervalued players is failing with overvalued players. They can clog your roster and never seem to match your expectations. Avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to identify players available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position. Thanks to the folks at TheIDPShow.com for the ADP.

RELATED: See 3 Safeties to Target here >>>

Here are the players who received the most votes:

• Jeremy Chinn, Washington
• Dax Hill, Cincinnati

And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.

Overvalued Player Receiving 4 Votes

Jeremy Chinn, Washington

Joseph Haggan: Chinn is less obvious because his landing spot could be juicy. The Commanders lost their star safety, Kamren Curl, to the Rams via free agency. This left a void at strong safety that Chinn could potentially fill. Chinn fell out of favor in Carolina and to extreme proportions. Could he rejuvenate his career with Quinn and the Commanders? Sure, but I'm not reaching by taking him as the 7th safety off the board.

Gary Davenport: There was a time when Chinn appeared on the path to IDP stardom—he eclipsed 100 total tackles in each of his first two seasons. But last year, the wheels came completely off—with no real role in Ejiro Evero's defense in Carolina, he posted just 30 total tackles and played just 286 snaps in 12 games. Chinn's move to Washington is a good thing, to be sure. But at this ADP, fantasy managers are counting on a player who just last year couldn't get on the field for the NFL's worst team to have the second-best IDP season of his career. Pass.

Tripp Brebner: One-time IDP darling Jeremy Chinn played just 289 snaps across 12 games in 2023. The change of scenery from the Panthers' two-high structures to the Commanders' more aggressive one-high looks will help Chinn, but he has a long way to go to reclaim SAF1 status. His new coach, Dan Quinn, coordinated Dallas's defense for the past three years. His safeties haven't played full-time for the past two. Chinn's best-case scenario is roughly the 800 snaps Jayron Kearse played last season, which would make Chinn a boom/bust SAF2. This season, the depth of the Commanders' defensive backs and linebackers poses the proverbial challenge for all tacklers: too many mouths to feed. Chinn must compete with incumbent starters Darrick Forrest and Percy Butler and 2023 second-rounder Jartavius Martin for opportunities. 2024 second-rounder Mike Sainristil will take snaps in the slot, too. Meanwhile, the group will line up behind tackle magnets Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu.

Kyle Bellefeuil: Chinn is coming off a tough 2023 season, with a career-low snap share (39%) and a career-worst 30 tackles (18 solos). Chinn fell out of the good graces in Carolina and gets a welcomed change of scenery after signing a one-year deal with Washington. There is a clear opportunity for him to bounce back with his new team, given the scheme and opening left behind by Kamren Curl, who left for the Rams during free agency. However, drafting him in the SAF1 range at his current ADP feels too optimistic he will immediately revert to the IDP asset we were excited about early in his career.

Overvalued Player Receiving 3 Votes

Dax Hill, Cincinnati

Joseph Haggan: Let's start by saying Hill had a great 2023 with 108 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two interceptions, and 11 passes defended. The problem, and it's a strange problem, is that Hill is so versatile. We aren't truly sure what his role is going to be in 2024. Hill can play virtually any position in the secondary. The Bengals brought back Vonn Bell, Jordan Battle had an incredible finish to 2023, and they still have Mike Hilton on the roster to run the slot. Hill may be the best player of this bunch, but with the plethora of talent, where the Bengals are going to deploy him is currently unknown. Because of this unknown,  his current ADP is too high.

Tripp Brebner: Dax Hill finished tenth among fantasy safeties in 2023. Fantasy gamers expect the same based on his ADP of 11th at the position in early drafting. Meanwhile, the Bengals signed Vonn Bell and Geno Stone to start at safety in 2024. Dax Hill has been moved to cornerback, where he'll compete for reps behind Cam Taylor-Britt and Mike Hilton. At least 50 safeties can be safely projected to play full-time in 2024, making them better picks than Hill. Players who aren't on the field can't score fantasy points.

John Norton: Dax Hill was not demoted. He was shifted to corner where he will compete with D.J. Turner for the starting job. Mike Hilton is the established slot. Hill worked outside most of the time during OTA's.   

IMO this move had more to do with the team's concerns about Turner starting than any knock on Hill. Hill could see a few snaps from the slot and his versatility gives the defensive coordinator a lot of creative options but it doesn't look like he's going to be playing much safety unless Geno Stone flops.  

The Bengals ran with five defensive backs virtually all the time last year. I think all four of the corners will have significant roles. That said, the move is almost certainly a negative for Hill's IDP value.

Kyle Bellefeuil: IDP drafters who are unaware of Hill's move to corner and expect him to post another triple-digit tackle season like last year are set up to experience buyer's remorse. Hill and the Bengals' secondary situation will be one to keep tabs on when training camp gets here.

Overvalued Player Receiving 2 Votes