Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, allowing you to develop a rudimentary game script to help narrow down your weekly decisions. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus on those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league, and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates remaining non-main slate DFS games.]
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Dallas | Green Bay | -7.5 | 50.5 | 29 | ««« | ««« | |
Detroit | LA Rams | -3 | 51.5 | 27.25 | «« | «« | |
LA Rams | Detroit | 3 | 51.5 | 24.25 | « | « | |
Kansas City | Miami | -4.5 | 44 | 24.25 | « | « | « |
Cleveland | Houston | -2.5 | 44.5 | 23.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Tampa Bay | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
Buffalo | Pittsburgh | -10 | 36 | 23 | ««« | ||
Green Bay | Dallas | 7.5 | 50.5 | 21.5 | |||
Houston | Cleveland | 2.5 | 44.5 | 21 | |||
Tampa Bay | Philadelphia | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
Miami | Kansas City | 4.5 | 44 | 19.75 | |||
Pittsburgh | Buffalo | 10 | 36 | 13 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Tony Pollard (Cowboys)
- Receivers: CeeDee Lamb/Brandin Cooks/Jake Ferguson (Cowboys)
- Defense: Buffalo Bills
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Goff (Lions)
- Running Back: David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)
- Receivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams/Sam LaPorta (Lions)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (Rams), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Kyren Williams (Rams), Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua/Tyler Higbee/Demarcus Robinson/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Rashee Rice/Justin Watson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Kansas City Chiefs