Two months have passed since the last preseason game. Fantasy drafts are a distant memory. Gamers who play to win in September have begun to take their lumps. Injuries and bye weeks are the great equalizers of fantasy football.
Footballguys' "Rate My Team" app offers drafters in-depth assessments of their August hauls and forecasts each team's likelihood of a playoff berth. The app always offers the caveat of "great," "good," or "average" in-season management as a modifier of a team's likelihood of success.
Line-up decisions, waiver wire management, and trading constitute the bulk of in-season management decisions. Trading might be the most difficult to navigate, but it also might add the biggest advantage.
With the advent of the 18-week season, most fantasy leagues deploy a 14-week regular season. Fantasy gamers' midseason adjustments could differentiate between an also-ran season and momentum into Week 15 and the fantasy playoffs.
This midseason edition of Reading the Defense forecasts an All-Second-Half Team. The following players are trending upward and could serve fantasy gamers as key starters down the stretch. Their accrual of fantasy points to date just might make them expendable to their current fantasy managers in medium-sized fantasy leagues.
Defensive Line
Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles
Paul Perdichizzi of Saturday-2-Sunday Football named Falcons running back Bijan Robinson and Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter the two blue-chip prospects of the 2023 draft. Character concerns caused Carter to slide to Pick 9 on the draft's opening night.
Carter is enjoying an extraordinary start to his career. Playing in rotation with perennial Pro-Bowler Fletcher Cox, Carter has 3.5 quarterback sacks and 2 forced fumbles to his credit despite missing a game and a half. More impressively, he comfortably leads all tackles in pass-rush win rate. In 90 pass-rush attempts, Carter has beaten the block within 2.5 seconds 23 times (26%), as reported by ESPN using NFL NextGen Stats.
Jalen Carter stands 20th among fantasy defensive tackles on the Footballguys' leaderboard. He easily has upside into the top 10 and should be considered a top-5 commodity at the position in dynasty leagues.
Jalen Carter is almost unblockable 1 on 1. He didn't get a sack and only had 1 tackle but his presence was still felt by the dolphins. #Eagles #FlyEaglesFly #PhiladelphiaEagles pic.twitter.com/TONqqzbLgy
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) October 25, 2023
Boye Mafe, Seattle Seahawks
The son of Nigerian immigrants was deemed a project coming out of the University of Minnesota. NFL.com scouts comped him to Green Bay's Rashan Gary. Dynasty gamers have not shown the necessary patience with the 2022 second-rounder. Redraft gamers ignored him outside the deepest of 2023 drafts.
Boye Mafe has scored a sack in four straight games since missing Week 2 and leads NFL linemen in pass-rush win rate. With Seattle's leading edge-rusher, Uchenna Nwosu, placed on IR, Mafe steps into a high-volume role for a team with a strong secondary behind him. The proactive fantasy gamer might easily trade an aging star like Khalil Mack or a flash in the pan like Michael Hoecht of the Rams for Mafe.
Biggest difference in Boye Mafe's game this year compared to his rookie season? He wouldn't have been able to bend around the corner as quickly as he did in 2022... Looks like a different player in that regard and it's leading to a ton of pressures like this one. pic.twitter.com/Jp4WeioNKK
— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) October 25, 2023
Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans
The third overall pick of the 2023 draft won't be a target for dynasty gamers; he's already a consensus DE1. Impatient redraft players, however, might be willing to part with him. Will Anderson Jr. has just one sack to his credit and slumbers at 46th in Footballguys' scoring among edge rushers. His bookend, Jonathan Greenard, has 3.5 sacks. Anderson is the one winning at an elite rate of 30 percent, a pass-rush win rate that ranks third in the NFL through seven weeks.
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Linebackers
Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars puzzled draftniks by selecting Devin Lloyd in the first round of the 2022 draft as well as Chad Muma in the third. The two competed as rookies to play alongside high-priced free agent Foyesade Oluokun.
Fantasy gamers worried 2023 would be more of the same when the two rotated in Week 3. Lloyd had, however, broken a thumb. He returned to a full-time role in Week 6. Lloyd has collected 20 tackles and broken up 3 passes in his last two games, while Muma has played just 3 snaps on defense.
Lloyd's dynasty value is still recovering from the 2022 turbulence. He might be had for a thirty-something tackle machine like C.J. Mosley.
.@Jaguars tandem of @DevinLloyd_ @foyelicious is becoming one of the best. Here they are going about their business #duval #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/FwpJ3ayk8I
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) October 20, 2023
Damone Clark, Dallas Cowboys
Dallas's starting middle linebacker and defensive captain, Leighton Vander Esch, frighteningly suffered another neck injury in Week 5. Sophomore Damone Clark has played full-time since.
The former Louisiana State Tiger slid to the fifth round of the 2022 draft due to a herniated disk in his neck. Spinal fusion surgery cost him most of his rookie year after a predraft process that had otherwise positioned him to be a top-100 pick.
Vander Esch tried to return from a neck injury in 2019 but could not. The team might choose to manage his load if and when he returns. His ceiling as a player is known. Damone Clark could earn the larger load and take command of this defense in an extended audition.
Clark might be available in trade for other first- and second-year players drafted earlier who have yet to see significant playing time. The fungibility of the linebacker position makes trading Dorian Williams, Trenton Simpson, Chad Muma, or Brian Asamoah II for Clark an interesting bet.
Zach Cunningham, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia was so concerned about the linebacker room that it signed Zach Cunningham and Myles Jack during training camp. Jack lasted a couple of weeks and decided to enroll in trade school. Cunningham, meanwhile, beat out a struggling Nicholas Morrow, the presumptive starter from OTAs. Morrow failed to make the 53-man roster. Second-year man Nakobe Dean manned the middle and wore the green dot alongside Cunningham in the season opener.
Morrow re-entered the picture when Dean got hurt. He and Cunningham played effectively as a duo, and each earned a role going forward, even with Dean back from IR. Defensive coordinator Sean Desai confirmed that all three will play.
Cunningham played 100 percent of the defense's snaps in Week 7 while Morrow and Dean rotated. The former Texan and Titan has been prolific as a tackler in the AFC South and appears to be fantasy gamers' Eagle of choice for the rest of the season, even if he loses a few snaps each week.
Defensive Backs
Jamal Adams, Seattle Seahawks
The former overall DB1 is back after nearly two years of injury recovery. Fantasy gamers and fans alike wondered what, if anything, could be expected from the 28-year-old former star after so many serious injuries.
Adams played full-time in Week 7 for the first time since November 2021. He collected just 6 tackles and pass defensed, but his usage was ideal. He played just 3 snaps deep, according to Pro Football Focus, and rushed the passer 4 times. If he can stay healthy, he could lead all defensive backs in fantasy points in the second half of the season.
This is the play that jumped out from Jamal Adams on Sunday - it ended up not counting, but he sticks with Marquise Brown down the seam in coverage. That shows you where his health is at - he's moving well and playing with confidence in coverage. #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/7ayMf9XKIB
— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) October 25, 2023
Kevin Byard, Philadelphia Eagles
C.J. Gardner-Johnson broke out playing in the back end of the Eagles' defense in 2022. The long-time Titan is an even better player. Kevin Byard's resume includes triple-digit tackle totals in two of the last three years, and he's defensed no fewer than 7 passes since he became a full-time player in his second professional season.
Through 6 games, Byard has yet to break up a pass in Tennessee. That will change in Philadelphia. His running mate, Reed Blankenship, demonstrates potential for Eagles' safeties to meet fantasy gamers' needs for tackle collection – 39 in 5 games. Byard will work interchangeably with Blankenship, but his track record as a ball hawk makes him a boom/bust DB1 the rest of the way.
Joey Porter Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers
When Patrick Peterson signed the Steelers as an unrestricted free agent, he expected to see time in the slot. The 33-year-old simply has not the speed he once had to lock down the boundary. They drafted Joey Porter Jr. to take on that role; however, they deemed him not ready at the beginning of the season.
The issue has been tackling, not coverage. Porter missed 2 tackles against the Rams in Week 7, but he did play a season-high 53 snaps. As the team creeps into playoff contention, it cannot expect to advance with Peterson and Levi Wallace playing full-time outside.
Pittsburgh values tackling ability in its cornerbacks more than most teams. The Steelers require more of them in run defense because they frequently use man coverage, and they're afforded less help from safeties due to Pittsburgh's aggressive nature with frequent blitzing.
If Porter can find his footing in this unit, it will be because he's cleaned up his tackling. That will activate his fantasy CB1 status for cornerback-required leagues.
In Conclusion
Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but also why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.
Jamal Adams enjoys violence pic.twitter.com/hA0rnyNofv
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) October 19, 2023