Reading the Defense, Week 7

Marquee players on both sides of the line of scrimmage have seemingly defied the odds. Fantasy gamers relied upon running backs, linebackers, and pass rushers lost to catastrophic injuries in the 2022 season. A remarkable number of them returned to play by Week 1 of 2023. Denver's Javonte Williams, New York's Breece Hall, Seattle's Jordyn Brooks, Green Bay's Rashan Gary, and Tennessee's Harold Landry III all slid down draft boards over concerns about effectiveness and reinjury in 2023.

Early Returns on 2022 Injuries

Jordyn Brooks underwent ACL reconstruction in January, the latest of the group. He played 52 snaps fewer than eight months after his surgery, 64 percent of the defense's total. He's averaged 83% of snaps since then, similar to his playing time in 2021, when he last played alongside Bobby Wagner.

In contrast, Breece Hall's workload has gradually increased throughout the early season. He played 17 snaps in the opener and eclipsed 40 for the first time in Week 6. Javonte Williams, who arguably suffered the worst injury, has yet to play more than 30 snaps in a game.

Rashan Gary is paralleling Hall's trajectory, gradually increasing his workload through six weeks. He played just 12 snaps in the opener (16% of the Packers' defensive snaps) and 30 (47%) in Week 6. He has yet to reach his regular 2022 snap share. He never played fewer than 61% of his unit's snaps until he tore an ACL in Week 9.

Harold Landry III suffered his ACL tear earlier than most, just a few days before the 2022 season opener. He resumed his normal workload early in 2023 with fifty-something snaps in each of the first two weeks. He hasn't played that many since, as his play has not met his pre-injury standards. He also missed much of the Titans' summer program as he worked his way back.

Shaquille Leonard has perhaps been the biggest disappointment of the marquee players returning from injury. He has settled into the Colts' LB2 role, averaging about 80% of snaps when healthy. He's making tackles on 10% of his snaps, among the lowest rates in the league. His caliber of play has simply not met his pre-injury form, an observation supported by his Pro Football Focus grade of 59.0 for the season to date.

Leonard sits a distant 63rd in fantasy points among linebackers. Brooks is 22nd. Both are playing similar shares of their teams' snaps, so effectiveness upon return from injury has been remarkably disparate.

Through six weeks, both aforementioned pass rushers rank in the seventies for fantasy points. While Landry's problem has in part been effectiveness, Gary just hasn't had enough opportunities to stat. Landry hasn't pressured opposing quarterbacks at high rates in 2023; however, he has always been a good rather than great player, reliant on volume for production. Gary continues to grade among the league's top pass rushers by Pro Football Focus, but coaches acknowledge they're limiting his reps.

With reduced workloads, both pass rushers are liabilities in fantasy gamers' line-ups. Neither player appears on injury reports, so fantasy gamers must hope the Titans' and Packers' coaches unleash their star defenders. Gary's workload growth is on a trajectory to a pre-injury level workload by midseason. At that point, he'll be twelve months removed from his ACL tear. He's, therefore, the better bet than Landry to resume pre-injury production.

#Packers Rashan Gary has a QB pressure rating of 21.2%(Ranked 2nd)
He’s playing at an elite level, what a comeback for him #GoPackGo #thursdaymorning
(🎥@NFLFilms)
pic.twitter.com/h0Pm6bHl98 https://t.co/Bd9rX0W7Y1

— NFL Highs (@frito_paw) October 19, 2023

Unrestricted free agency offered NFL teams sparse options to bolster their pass rush off the edge for 2023. Several teams awarded multi-year contracts of $20 million or more to journeymen. The Titans were among them, signing Arden Key on a three-year deal. Key's workload has increased at Landry's expense. Landry, whose contract is worth twice that of Key's, played one fewer snap in Week 6. Titans' coaches suggested for years that Landry was playing too many snaps. Arden might be the key to a rebalanced rotation.

Great work by Harold Landry on Patrick Ricard pic.twitter.com/3kWZnMHXhS

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 15, 2023

Consequences of 2023 Injuries

Like last year and every year, NFL starters have suffered multi-game injuries leaving fantasy gamers scrambling for answers and replacements. Footballguys.com coverage is replete with replacements starting with Kyle Bellefeuil's weekly waiver wire article.

Answers regarding return to play and especially return to former roles have been more elusive. Last season's bronze medalist among fantasy linebackers, Nick Bolton sprained an ankle in Week 2. He returned to play in Week 6 but missed six snaps. While the number of lost reps is small, fantasy gamers are worrying whether Bolton will lose future work to free-agent signee Drue Tranquill in Kansas City. Bolton was limited in practice leading into Week 6's Thursday night game and might have had his game reps similarly limited.

KC loving having Nick Bolton back. pic.twitter.com/XLk4LkTOYI

— trey wingo (@wingoz) October 13, 2023

Denver's Josey Jewell injured a hip in Week 3. He returned to action in Week 5 but ceded a full-time role to Alex Singleton in both Week 5 and Week 6. He's struggling to return to form. He's allowing 100% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks in seven attempts through the last three weeks. His PFF grade reflects his struggles. If the injury hampers him all season, he might not regain the full-time role that fueled his top-20 finish in fantasy points in 2022.

The Texans signed Denzel Perryman as an unrestricted free agent to hold down the middle of their defense in 2023. He did so in the season's first two weeks but suffered a hand injury. He operated in Week 5 in a limited role but was held out in Week 6 due to the club-like cast on his lower arm and hand. Perryman was one of three Texans who practiced in full Friday before their Week 6 game but were nevertheless inactive on Sunday.

Fantasy gamers caught out by the surprise inactive might wonder if the young Texans are playing the long game. At 3-3, they're surprisingly in the mix in an AFC South without a dominant team. Blake Cashman and Henry To'oTo'o have broken out in Perryman's stead. The former and current mid-round draft picks are unlikely to take command of the defense and cast aside a healthy Perryman.

#Texans Denzel Perryman (broken hand, wrist) is practicing with a big red club on @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/bzRbvGqUB0

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 4, 2023

In Conclusion

One might argue that Harold Landry III, Rashan Gary, Nick Bolton, Josey Jewell, and Denzel Perryman are, like Breece Hall, all working back incrementally in the best interest of their health. Few would make that case for Shaquille Leonard. A more cynical perspective might account for a 17-game season and finite resources and talent on NFL teams to endure five months or more of football. The Colts have little depth behind Leonard. Rookies Lukas Van Ness, Drew Sanders, and Henry To'oto'o are exciting prospects, but NFL coaches are nearly certain to rotate them through lesser roles in balance with veteran starters.

All of these veterans' gradual return to play has negative consequences for fantasy gamers relying on them. Their limited roles leave us to gamble on whether the limits will be removed when performance improves or if the limits are intended to preserve their availability for the length of the season.

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify whom to target or fade and why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.