After fantasy football's regular season has concluded in most leagues, the holiday season offers the opportunity to reflect on player results to date and implications for line-ups. Reading the Defense will review defensive tackles this week, followed by edge defenders, linebackers, and defensive backs to close out the column for 2023.
Overview
Fantasy football rarely breaks as expected. The top tier of edge defenders could not have come much closer. Footballguy Aaron Rudnicki's top tier, largely a consensus quintet, are all currently atop Pro Football Focus's report card for pass-rush grade. T.J. Watt, Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, and Nick Bosa all rank within the top 17 scorers of fantasy points at their position through Week 15.
The balance of the Footballguys' leaderboard includes as many surprises as ever. Four of the top 24 edge rushers by fantasy points entered training camp without starting roles locked down on their own teams. Talented players, meanwhile, are buried down the list. Carolina's Brian Burns is setting a new career-high pass-rush win rate (23%), but it's largely for naught on a defense that is almost always playing uphill. Unfortunately for fantasy gamers who drafted Burns as a low-end DE1, talent does not always translate into production, even among pass rushers.
Volume
Playing time continues to drive fantasy output for all positions, but it matters least among edge defenders versus other defensive positions. Only Maxx Crosby has played more snaps than Michael Hoecht and Byron Young. However, the Rams' starting duo rank just 24th and 25th on the Footballguys' leaderboard.
Volume is the most important but not the only component of opportunity. Khalil Mack has played the tenth-most snaps among edge defenders while ranking second in fantasy points through 15 weeks. He collected a quarter of his fantasy points at the expense of Aidan O'Connell in Week 4. In his first career start, the rookie quarterback allowed Mack 6 sacks.
Danielle Hunter is no stranger to fantasy leaderboards. He is on pace for career-high volume and has already set new bests in total quarterback sacks and combined tackles. According to Pro Football Focus, he has played the fourth-most snaps and rushed the passer more times than everyone but Maxx Crosby.
Hunter does not appear among league leaders in PFF's pass-rush grade or ESPN's pass-rush win rate. In his blog Trench Warfare, Brandon Thorn reports that Hunter has collected four coverage sacks and one clean-up sack to buttress his total among league leaders. His sack total includes running a tight end out of bounds (0:19 mark in the following clip). Hunter's high volume and his unit's surprising improvement in pass defense have vaulted Hunter over Garrett, Parsons, and Bosa, all of whom trail Hunter by at least 100 snaps.
Danielle Hunter 2023 NFL DPOY Candidate - Week 15 All-22 Highlights Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati
— @NFLStudy (@NFLStudy) December 18, 2023
Hunter had 5 total tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, and 2 QB hits in week 15.
#fantasyfootball #football #highlights #Cousins #Jefferson #Injury #Mullens #Chandler #LSU #jamaica #Skol pic.twitter.com/FyJwMwUDRO
The Vikings signed Marcus Davenport as an unrestricted free agent to start opposite Hunter. The former Saint has only played two games wire to wire, presenting an opportunity for former mid-round picks on a thin depth chart.
Minnesota's D.J. Wonnum is completing his fourth NFL season. PFF has graded his pass rush nearly identically in each of the four. Wonnum is twelfth in snaps by edge defenders, an opportunity he has parlayed into 56 combined tackles and 8.0 sacks. The situation and opportunity translate Wonnum's mediocre performance into 15th place on the Footballguys leaderboard through 15 weeks.
Tackles
Maxx Crosby is on his way to leading all NFL edge defenders in snaps and tackles for the second consecutive season. He entered the league as a traits-based pass-rush prospect and mid-round pick and has evolved into an elite player versus the run and the pass. Commensurately, he stands fourth among all fantasy edge defenders.
John Jenkins (yellow) knocks his block back & drives the center into the RB. Maxx Crosby (red) sets the edge with a quick club/swim. Run play goes nowhere! #stoptherun #raiders pic.twitter.com/ug4luM8JEv
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) October 2, 2023
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