Monday Showdown Week 10

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

Game Strategy

• Over/Under: 46.5
• Spread: Bills -7
• Bills Implied Team Total: 26.8
• Broncos Implied Team Total: 19.8

The Bills have a potent offense but a banged-up and struggling defense. That should allow points to be scored on both sides of the ball. Lean Bills in your builds but do not shy away from Broncos players, especially with Sean Payton having had two weeks to prepare for this one with Denver coming off of their bye.

Injury Roundup

• Dawson Knox OUT
• Bills Safety Micah Hyde OUT
• Bills Cornerback Christian Benford OUT

Captain Consideration:

• Josh Allen
• Stefon Diggs
• Javonte Williams
• Jerry Jeudy
• Russell Wilson

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen - Captain/Flex

Josh Allen ranks second in quarterback fantasy points per game (23.4), seventh in passing yards per game (269.2), and third in pass touchdowns per game (2). He leads a Bills offense that ranks fifth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and ninth in Dropback EPA. He's at home against a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Per usual, when the Bills are in primetime, Allen is the #1 Captain play.

Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker

Stefon Diggs - Captain/Flex

Stefon Diggs has been dominant this year, per usual. He ranks third in targets per game (10.8), third in receptions per game (7.8), sixth in receiving yards per game (92.7), and second in touchdown receptions. He's at home against a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Dalton Kincaid - Flex

In the past two games without Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid has played on 84% and 90% of the offensive snaps and put up stat lines of 5-65-1 on 7 targets and 10-81 on 11 targets. Kincaid has been unleashed, and he should not be expected to slow down anytime soon. Kincaid was an exciting talent the Bills traded up for in the first round. Here is what I wrote shortly after he was drafted by Buffalo:

Kincaid landed in the dream spot, skyrocketing his dynasty and redraft values, after Buffalo traded up for him to pair him with Josh Allen as the Bills' new slot receiver. Kincaid amassed tons of experience and production lined up in the slot in college as Utah essentially utilized him as a receiver. He didn't disappoint, producing a 70-890-8 line last year and catching 16 total touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons. Because of this, Kincaid won't compete for snaps and targets with Dawson Knox as much as many think. And while Kincaid is an older prospect who will turn 24 in October, producing as an older prospect in college isn't as much of a concern at the tight-end position since the transition to the pros is tough for younger prospects, and there are so few difference makers at the position we're looking for anyone who could be one. Kincaid is great at making contested catches and reminds some of George Kittle when it comes to athleticism. Do not expect him to follow the trend of tight ends starting slow when it comes to production early on. He'll produce in year one, and his upside should increase as the season goes along.

Gabe Davis - Flex

Everyone knows the deal by now. Gabe Davis is a decent NFL talent propped up by Josh Allen and a pass-happy offense. Davis is a boom-bust play, but his up-and-down production is not for a lack of playing time. In fact, Davis leads all Bills wide receivers, including Stefon Diggs, in snaps played (515) this season. We're playing one game Showdown, so leaning into tournament volatility is vital. This could be a boom spot for Davis at home against a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed, especially if the Broncos have Patrick Surtain focus his coverage on Diggs.

Khalil Shakir - Flex

The Dawson Knox injury has been good for Khalil Shakir. His playing time has spiked over the past two weeks with snap percentages of 65% and 71%. Shakir has taken advantage, posting 6-92 and 4-57 and catching every single target thrown his way in those contests. This is not a fluke of random production. Shakir balled out at Boise State. He put up 872 yards as a sophomore, 719 yards as a junior in only seven games during the COVID year, and 1,117 yards as a senior. He's a strong play.

James Cook - Flex

James Cook ranks 31st in opportunities per game (14.9) and 33rd in total yards per game (79.7). Cook has talent and is a dual-threat in a great offense, but he's more of an afterthought than a core contributor. Despite the favorable matchup, his makes him more of a tournament play you only want to have exposure to if you're making multiple lineups.

Denver Broncos

Quarterback

Russell Wilson - Captain/Flex

Sean Payton is working wonders with Russell Wilson. His passing yards per game (201.6) ranks just 24th, but thanks to Payton, the efficiency is there. Wilson ranks tied with Josh Allen for third in pass touchdowns per game (2). Coming off the bye, which gave Payton two weeks to prepare for this one, Wilson will find success against a banged-up and struggling Bills defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker

Javonte Williams - Captain/Flex

The Broncos technically have a three-way committee at running back between Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine, but don't overthink this. Williams was unleashed in Week 8 prior to Denver's bye, playing a season-high 63% of the offensive snaps and receiving 30 total opportunities and touches. Williams is Sean Payton's lead back and should be utilized more in the second half of the season having used the first half of the year to fully get back up to speed after last season's tough knee injury. Williams is a strong play here in a great matchup against a Bills defense that only ranks 13th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Jerry Jeudy - Captain/Flex

Targets per game on the year: Jerry Jeudy 5.7 and Courtland Sutton 5.8. The general sentiment seems to be Sutton is clearly the better play here, but that's just a lot of people box-score scouting since Sutton leads Jeudy in touchdowns this season six to one. Jeudy wasn't traded at the deadline and is locked in as a Bronco for at least the remainder of this season. This feels like a Jeudy night in a favorable matchup with a game script that projects to call for more passing than would be ideal for this Broncos offense. He's the main tournament play at receiver for the Broncos, especially with his ownership projected to come in lower than Sutton's ownership.

Courtland Sutton - Flex

But Courtland Sutton is certainly a solid play as well. Sutton leads all Broncos receivers in snaps (423), targets (46), receptions (33), receiving yards (38), and receiving touchdowns (6). He's having a strong season, and this could just end up being Sutton finally putting a full year of consistency together for the first time since 2019. He's talented enough and is still just 28 years old.

Marvin Mims Jr. - Flex

I can't guarantee you Sean Payton is going to play Marvin Mims more. What I can tell you is Mims is the exact prototype of player that can win you a Showdown slate, especially with him projected to largely go overlooked due to his lack of usage to date. But Mims did play on a season-high 39% of the offensive snaps in Week 8 prior to Denver's bye. And now Payton has had two weeks to game plan for this banged-up and struggling Bills defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Mims' and Wilson's downfield strengths mesh well together. Here is what I wrote about Mims shortly after the Broncos drafted him:

Mims is a fast receiver (4.38 40-yard dash) who produced all three seasons at Oklahoma. He posted lines of 37-610-9 as a freshman, 32-705-5 as a sophomore, and 54-1083-6 as a junior. He won deep on the outside and vertical from the slot and converted many deep targets into receptions with great ability at the catch point down the field. Mims profiles as a boom-bust vertical weapon that can take the top off of a defense, at least early on, evidenced by his 22 yards per reception as a sophomore and 20.1 yards per catch as a junior. But he landed in an ideal situation after Sean Payton traded up to select him in the second round despite the Broncos having minimal draft capital due to the Russell Wilson trade.

Samaje Perine - Flex

This is a large-field recommendation only and still not a strong play at that, but Samaje Perine is Denver's passing down and two-minute drill back. He has 49 touches for 334 total yards on the season without a touchdown. It's a big if, but if Perine finally scores his first touchdown on the year here, he could find himself in the optimal. He's a fun stack with Russell Wilson in a favorable matchup. Just think how excited you'll be if Perine houses a 30+ yard screen pass.