As we come upon the unofficial end of the first quarter of the football regular season, it is time to evaluate what we have seen thus far. There are the no-doubt players who have fallen off the map, and there have been surprise stars who have become must-start players. While there will never be a fantasy football crystal ball, there are trends and metrics to follow that help to predict these trends. It is also important to follow the risers and fallers in the sport regardless of whether they are on your team or on waivers. At this point, a new fantasy season begins. Are you a contender or a pretender? Is it time to blow it up or secure the foundation? Whatever stage of the game you are in, I am here to help you win your week and build your team! So, without further stalling, RING THE BELL!
The Fortune 5
Khalil Mack: Was there any better defensive player this week than Mack? An ABSURD performance from a guy who is likely on waivers. He had an incredible ten tackles and six sacks with two forced fumbles. This was a candidate for defensive game of the year, and who better to do it than the former two-position All Pro. Will this be something he can replicate? No. Prior to this game, Mack was having a subpar season start, but he has some sneaky games against bad offensive lines down the stretch. Patriots, Broncos, and Raiders again in weeks 13-15. Mack may be worthy of a stash if you have the spot. Regardless, what a day for Khalil Mack!
Bobby Wagner: Bobby Wagner is quietly trending toward career highs. His illustrious career in not only IDP but the NFL has been wildly successful, and this season is no different. His career high was 172 total tackles just two years ago, and he is pacing currently to eclipse that high mark. At 33 years old, Wagner came into the season as a depth fill while Jordyn Brooks was recovering, but then it broke that Brooks would return extremely fast from his ACL repair. This left a lot of uncertainty about what Wagner would contribute. It is quite apparent he is still a man to be feared in lineups across IDP!
Maxx Crosby: Mad Maxx is back in the fold as a top player. While there have been players with more POP weeks, Crosby has been putting together a consistent season of production for fantasy teams. Through the first four weeks, he has 23 total tackles and four sacks, pacing him for over 80 tackles and 15+ sacks! There may have been some fear associated with him prior to his game last Sunday due to the injury designation, but Crosby, when he plays, is a must-start. If you didn't sweat it, you were rewarded with a game that featured eight tackles and two sacks. Crosby is here to stay and should be a top-three dynasty defensive end on your boards.
Jordyn Brooks: While I do love me some Bobby Wagner, we can't just ignore that his counterpart in the Seattle Seahawks linebacker corps is a great player in his own right. Brooks is simply a tackling machine. Last we saw him in the 2022 season, he suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 17. Many were speculating if he would miss the entire year or if he would be available for a potential Seahawks playoff run. I don't believe anyone outside of him saw this coming, and he deserves a victory lap for sure. Through 4 games, he has 41 tackles and two sacks. Congrats to this Man of Steel!
Andrew Van Ginkel: If you had suggested to me that through four weeks, Andrew Van Ginkel would be a viable every-week option for your team, I would have looked at getting you some counseling! He is getting a unique opportunity since the injury to Jaelen Phillips and is making the most of it! He has 19 tackles and three sacks in the young season, but the great thing about it is that it is spread out almost evenly through the games. It would be one thing to get these numbers in one week, but the fact he is averaging nearly five tackles and a 0.5 sack a game is just mind-boggling. Van Ginkel needs to be in your lineup minimally until Phillips is healthy and needs to be considered even after the fact.
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The Falling 4
Shaquille Leonard: I am afraid it is time we have a moment of silence for the Leonard we once knew in IDP. He is no longer a player that I would trust to put into my lineups each week. Back in the glory days of the mid to late 2010s, Leonard was a contender for best IDP in the entire league. Now, he is nothing more than a depth option that you would hate to have to start on your team. I had very high hopes this season, but I was very wrong to think he could return to form. Now, all that IDP managers and fans can do is hope he can be a serviceable player for their team, not a star in the NFL. He is a safe drop candidate for your team, I don't see this changing.
Frankie Luvu: Last season, I was late to the Luvu party as he was ascending to the tops of the league because I believed it was fool's gold. This season, he has been exactly that. He has 23 total tackles and 2.5 sacks through the first four games, which sounds good, but nine of tackles and two of the sacks came in Week 2 against the Saints. Since then, he has been battling an injury and doesn't appear to be winning the battle. The worst players to manage are the ones who aren't hurt enough to sit but too hurt to contribute to your matchup, and Luvu is currently in that territory in IDP. It is the ultimate worst-case scenario for a player likely fetching high capital last offseason. It is too early to panic sell, but this is a situation I would monitor for the time being.
Christian Wilkins: One of the more perplexing parts of the game we play is the correlation of stats to on-field performance. Wilkins has been great at both for most of his career, but this year, his on-field product isn't giving us much fantasy production. It is easy to use his position as the reason for not getting points, seeing as interior linemen aren't exactly the big scorers, but Wilkins had 98 total tackles last year! So far, through the first four games, he has had just one game where he had 3+ tackles and only has one sack on the year. This is not how managers wanted his season to start, and for that, we must acknowledge him as one of the fallers.
Alex Highsmith: After a smoking hot start of the season, Highsmith was making a case for one of the best values of the young season. After the first two weeks, he had 14 tackles to go along with an interception, a fumble, and a sack! Since Week 2, he has a total of three tackles. He played a Texans team not exactly known for line success and a Raiders team that just gave up six sacks to Khalil Mack. He plays alongside a player who gets the majority of attention (T.J. Watt) so it isn't because they're scheming against him. Hopefully, this is just a bad stretch of games, but Highsmith has a big season to follow up on, considering he eclipsed 14 sacks just one season ago when Watt went down with an injury.
Premiere Pennies
Nicholas Morrow: We can no longer ignore what Morrow is doing for the Eagles linebacking corps. Since Nakobe Dean went to IR, this position group for the Eagles was muddy at best. Morrow was signed in Week 2 and had a pedestrian game, followed by a decreased statistical performance in Week 3. This means he likely was available on the waiver wire for Week 4, where he exploded for 11 total tackles (10 solo) and three sacks. He must be rostered right now if not immediately inserted in your lineups. He has played 95%+ snaps in each week he has been on the team, and it appears that he finally has found his groove, albeit against a less than formidable Commanders team. Until Dean returns from IR, he is, at minimum, a great LB3.
Greg Rousseau: For as good as the Bills defense has been to this point in the season, it was only a matter of time before we started to get fringe players emerging to fantasy relevance. Gregory Rousseau is 23 years old and is in his third year on a team with a defensive head coach. His team tends to try to outscore opponents as opposed to hard-nosed running and great defense, which directly benefits the team's pass rushers. When the Bills get ahead, it forces opposing teams to throw the ball, and this means pass rushers are full speed ahead going after the opposing QB. Rousseau was a first-round pick in 2021 and had a great rookie year of 49 total tackles with four sacks at 21 years old. His tackle numbers regressed last season, but his sack total doubled. He is a great dynasty waiver addition and a potential long-term hold that could pay dividends. He leads all defensive ends in snaps and is second only to Ed Oliver on the defensive line. Snaps mean opportunities, and opportunities mean stats!
Andre Cisco: Last season was the year of Rayshawn Jenkins as the Jaguars' safety to have, although Cisco has always been a decent depth filler at the position. While Jenkins is still there, Cisco is currently the main man to have in this secondary. The tackle numbers are similar, but Cisco has two interceptions and a forced fumble. The snap counts are similar - Jenkins plays about three more per game - but Cisco is doing more with the snaps and has played 100% in two games as opposed to Jenkins' one. If you're looking for a cheap safety who is likely not on the radar, Cisco is the perfect candidate for spot starts or a deep stash on the bench. The big play ability should be the tiebreaker for the two, and keep in mind Jenkins's last season was propelled a lot by the absurd Week 15 performance (18 tackles, two interceptions, and a touchdown) he put together against the Cowboys.
We are almost through a quarter of the season, so make sure you soak it in while it is here! Too often, we take for granted the bad games on primetime, but then in early July, there's a void football has left! Don't be afraid to make changes to your roster, indecision IS a decision. So make those waiver moves and trades, and make sure you continue to follow me on Twitter (X) @mattmontyff for more IDP and fantasy football content. As always, make sure you're following @footballguys to get all the great content from your favorite analysts!