IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 15

Aaron Rudnicki's IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 15 Aaron Rudnicki Published 12/14/2023

The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet tracks trends around the league to help evaluate IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.

You can find the Microsoft Excel tool HERE

SCHEDULE TAB

The Schedule tab was a recent addition to try and help someone quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.

When I look at matchups for this week, these are the ones that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

  • CHICAGO (at Cleveland) – Browns offense generates 54.7 tackle opps/game (31.5 rush/20.5 pass)
  • BUFFALO (vs Dallas) – Cowboys offense generates 54.5 tackle opps/game (27 rush/25 pass)
  • DENVER (at Detroit) – Lions offense generates 54.4 tackle opps/game (28 rush/24 pass)
  • SEATTLE (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles offense generates 54.0 tackle opps/game (29 rush/22 pass)
  • BALTIMORE (at Jacksonville) – Jaguars offense generates 53.6 tackle opps/game (27 rush/24 pass)
  • JACKSONVILLE (vs Baltimore) – Ravens offense generates 53.5 tackle opps/game (31 rush/20 pass)

In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

  • LA CHARGERS (at Las Vegas) – Raiders offense generating 45.5 tackle opps/game (22.5 rush/20.5 pass)
  • MIAMI (vs NY Jets) – Jets offense generating 46.0 tackle opps/game (21 rush/21 pass)
  • HOUSTON (at Tennessee) – Titans offense generating 46.2 tackle opps/game (25 rush/18 pass)
  • PHILADELPHIA (at Seattle) – Seahawks offense generating 46.6 tackle opps/game (22 rush/22 pass)
  • INDIANAPOLIS (vs Pittsburgh) – Steelers offense generating 46.7 tackle opps/game (25 rush/19 pass)

You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:

  • NEW ORLEANS (vs NY Giants) – Giants allowing 5.5 sacks/game
  • LA RAMS (vs Washington) – Commanders allowing 4.5 sacks/game
  • MIAMI (vs NY Jets) – Jets allowing 4.2 sacks/game
  • ATLANTA (at Carolina) – Panthers allowing 3.9 sacks/game
  • HOUSTON (at Tennessee) – Titans allowing 3.3 sacks/game

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In contrast, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:

  • NEW ENGLAND (vs Kansas City) – Chiefs allowing 1.4 sacks/game
  • DALLAS (at Buffalo) – Bills allowing 1.4 sacks/game
  • NY JETS (at Miami) – Dolphins allowing 1.8 sacks/game
  • TAMPA BAY (at Green Bay) – Packers allowing 1.8 sacks/game
  • WASHINGTON (at LA Rams) – Rams allowing 1.8 sacks/game

STAT CREW GRADES

This tab keeps track of tendencies for each stat crew. Each home stadium typically has its own group of stat keepers responsible for assigning tackle details (solo vs solo/assist vs assist/assist) on each play. The table at the top keeps track of Tackles vs Opportunity and compares total tackles awarded (solos plus assists) divided by tackle opportunities (rush attempts plus pass completions plus sacks). This gives you an idea of which crews tend to be more generous or less generous in comparison to everybody else.

There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums that you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups, as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.

Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include*:

  • Carolina (vs Atlanta) – 1.288 tackles/opp
  • Indianapolis (vs Pittsburgh) – 1.268 tackles/opp
  • LA Rams (vs Washington) – 1.262 tackles/opp
  • Jacksonville (vs Baltimore) – 1.257 tackles/opp

Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

  • Arizona (vs San Francisco ) – 1.191 tackles/opp
  • Buffalo (vs Dallas) – 1.196 tackles/opp
  • Miami (vs NY Jets) – 1.201 tackles/opp

Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week, that would include:

  • Tennessee (vs Houston) – 81.1% solos
  • Arizona (vs San Francisco) – 80.9% solos
  • Cincinnati (vs Minnesota) – 80.6% solos
  • Cleveland (vs Chicago) – 80.3% solos
  • Buffalo (vs Dallas) – 80.3% solos

In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. STADIUMS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:

  • Carolina (vs Atlanta) – 54.4% assists
  • LA Rams (vs Washington) – 49.8% assists
  • Jacksonville (vs Baltimore) – 48.4% assists
  • Indianapolis (vs Pittsburgh) – 48.3% assists
  • New Orleans (vs NY Giants) – 47.0% assists

Hopefully, this helps give you some useful information. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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