IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 14

Aaron Rudnicki's IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 14 Aaron Rudnicki Published 12/08/2023

The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet tracks trends around the league to help evaluate IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.

You can find the Microsoft Excel tool HERE

SCHEDULE TAB

The Schedule tab was a recent addition to try and help someone quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.

When I look at matchups for this week, these are the ones that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

  • CHICAGO (vs Detroit) – Lions offense generates 54.9 tackle opps/game (28 rush/24 pass)
  • DALLAS (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles offense generates 54.9 tackle opps/game (30 rush/23 pass)
  • JACKSONVILLE (at Cleveland) – Browns offense generates 54.9 tackle opps/game (32 rush/20 pass)
  • PHILADELPHIA (at Dallas) – Cowboys offense generates 54.2 tackle opps/game (27 rush/25 pass)
  • CLEVELAND (vs Jacksonville) – Jaguars offense generates 53.8 tackle opps/game (28 rush/24 pass)
  • CAROLINA (at New Orleans) – Saints offense generates 53.8 tackle opps/game (27 rush/24 pass)
  • LA RAMS (at Baltimore) – Ravens offense generates 53.7 tackle opps/game (32 rush/19 pass)

In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

  • HOUSTON (at NY Jets) – Jets offense generating 45.2 tackle opps/game (21 rush/20 pass)
  • MIAMI (vs Tennessee) – Titans offense generating 45.7 tackle opps/game (25 rush/18 pass)
  • MINNESOTA (at Las Vegas) – Raiders offense generating 45.8 tackle opps/game (23 rush/21 pass)
  • NEW ENGLAND (at Pittsburgh) – Steelers offense generating 46.3 tackle opps/game (25 rush/19 pass)
  • SAN FRANCISCO (vs Seattle) – Seahawks offense generating 46.7 tackle opps/game (22 rush/22 pass)

You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:

  • GREEN BAY (at NY Giants) – Giants allowing 5.8 sacks/game
  • HOUSTON (at NY Jets) – Jets allowing 4.3 sacks/game
  • NEW ORLEANS (vs Carolina) – Panthers allowing 3.9 sacks/game
  • MIAMI (vs Tennessee) – Titans allowing 3.5 sacks/game
  • LA CHARGERS (vs Denver) – Broncos allowing 3.0 sacks/game

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In contrast, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:

  • KANSAS CITY (vs Buffalo) – Bills allowing 1.3 sacks/game
  • BUFFALO (at Kansas City) – Chiefs allowing 1.4 sacks/game
  • TENNESSEE (at Miami) – Dolphins allowing 1.5 sacks/game
  • BALTIMORE (vs LA Rams) – Rams allowing 1.8 sacks/game
  • SEATTLE (at San Francisco) – 49ers allowing 1.9 sacks/game
  • NY GIANTS (vs Green Bay) – Packers allowing 2.0 sacks/game

STAT CREW GRADES

This tab keeps track of tendencies for each stat crew. Each home stadium typically has its own group of stat keepers responsible for assigning tackle details (solo vs solo/assist vs assist/assist) on each play. The table at the top keeps track of Tackles vs Opportunity and compares total tackles awarded (solos plus assists) divided by tackle opportunities (rush attempts plus pass completions plus sacks). This gives you an idea of which crews tend to be more generous or less generous in comparison to everybody else.

There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums that you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups, as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.

Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include*:

  • Atlanta (vs Tampa Bay) – 1.277 tackles/opp
  • NY Giants (vs Green Bay) – 1.254 tackles/opp
  • Las Vegas (vs Minnesota) – 1.244 tackles/opp

Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

  • LA Chargers (vs Denver) – 1.171 tackles/opp
  • Dallas (vs Philadelphia) – 1.172 tackles/opp
  • Kansas City (vs Buffalo) – 1.186 tackles/opp
  • Cincinnati (vs Indianapolis) – 1.196 tackles/opp

Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week, that would include:

  • LA Chargers (vs Denver) – 83.4% solos
  • Kansas City (vs Buffalo) – 81.1% solos
  • Pittsburgh (vs New England) – 80.5% solos
  • Cincinnati (vs Indianapolis) – 80.1% solos

In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. STADIUMS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:

  • Atlanta (vs Tampa Bay) – 49.7% assists
  • NY Giants (vs Green Bay) – 48.4% assists
  • New Orleans (vs Carolina) – 48.2% assists
  • Las Vegas (vs ) – 47.5% assists

Hopefully, this helps give you some useful information. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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