IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 6

Aaron Rudnicki's IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 6 Aaron Rudnicki Published 10/12/2023

The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet is used to track trends around the league to help with evaluating IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.

You can find the Microsoft Excel tool HERE

SCHEDULE TAB

The Schedule tab was a recent addition to try and help someone quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.

When I look at matchups for this week, these are the ones that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• NY JETS (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles generating 61 tackle opps/game (36 rush att)
• INDIANAPOLIS (at Jacksonville) – Jaguars generating 57 tackle opps/game (29 rush att)
• ARIZONA (at LA Rams) – Cardinals allowing 57 tackle opps/game (29 rush att)
• LA Chargers (vs Dallas) - Chargers allowing 55 tackle opps/game (26 completions)
• DENVER (at Kansas City) – Broncos allowing 57 tackle opps/game (31 rush att)
• TAMPA BAY (vs Detroit) – Lions generating 56 tackle opps/game (31 rush att)

In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• PHILADELPHIA (at NY Jets) – Jets offense generating 44 tackle opps/game (18 completions)
• CLEVELAND (vs San Francisco) – Browns allowing 38 tackle opps/game (14 completions)
• KANSAS CITY (vs Denver) – Broncos generating 46 tackle opps/game (21 rush att)
• LA RAMS (vs Arizona) – Cardinals generating 48 tackle opps/game (20 completions)
• DETROIT (at Tampa Bay) – Lions allowing 46 tackle opps/game (20 rush att)
• NEW ORLEANS (at Houston) – Saints allowing 44 tackle opps/game (22 rush att)

You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:

• BUFFALO (vs NY Giants) – Giants allow 6.0 sacks/game and Bills average 4.2/game
• ATLANTA (vs Washington) – Commanders allow 5.8 sacks/game
• BALTIMORE (at Tennessee) – Titans allow 3.4 sacks/game and Ravens average 3.6/game
• SAN FRANCISCO (at Cleveland) – Browns allow 4.0 sacks/game
• MINNESOTA (at Chicago) – Bears allow 4.0 sacks/game

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In contrast, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:

• DETROIT (at Tampa Bay) – Buccaneers allow 1.0 sack/game and Detroit averages 1.4/game
• NY GIANTS (at Buffalo) – Bills allow 1.8 sacks/game and Giants average 1.0/game
• DENVER (at Kansas City) – Chiefs allow .8 sacks/game
• CAROLINA (at Miami) – Dolphins allow 1.2 sacks/game
• LA RAMS (vs Arizona) – Cardinals allow 1.8 sacks/game and Rams average 1.6/game

STAT CREW GRADES

This tab keeps track of tendencies for each stat crew. Each home stadium typically has their own group of stat keepers that are responsible for assigning tackle details (solo vs solo/assist vs assist/assist) on each play. The table at the top keeps track of Tackles vs Opportunity and compares total tackles awarded (solos plus assists) divided by tackle opportunities (rush attempts plus pass completions plus sacks). This gives you an idea of which crews tend to be more generous or less generous in comparison to everybody else.

For week 5, there were some generous stat crews as we saw TVO rates of 1.364 in Indianapolis, 1.344 in Las Vegas, and 1.304 in Washington. These were some of the highest numbers we’ve seen all season. On the other end, we saw some low TVO numbers as well with Miami at 1.192, Detroit at 1.194, and the Bills game in London at 1.138.

There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums which you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.

Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include*:

• Atlanta (vs Washington) – 1.28 tackles/opp
• Jacksonville (vs Indianapolis) – 1.27 tackles/opp
• Las Vegas (vs New England) – 1.26 tackles/opp
• LA Rams (vs Arizona) – 1.26 tackles/opp

*Titans crew has been very generous but their game is in London this week so likely a different stat crew will be used

Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• Buffalo (vs NY Giants) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• LA Chargers (vs Dallas) – 1.16 tackles/opp
• Cincinnati (vs Seattle) – 1.18 tackles/opp
• Miami (vs Carolina) – 1.18 tackles/opp
• Chicago (vs Minnesota) – 1.20 tackles/opp

Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week that would include:

• NY Jets (vs San Francisco) – 85% solos
• LA Chargers (vs Dallas) – 84% solos
• Cincinnati (vs Seattle) – 82% solos
• Buffalo (vs NY Giants) – 81% solos

In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. STADIUMS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:

• Las Vegas (vs New England) – 52% assists
• Atlanta (vs Washington) – 51% assists
• Tampa Bay (vs Detroit) - 49% assists
• Jacksonville (vs Indianapolis) - 49% assists
• LA Rams (vs Arizona) - 48% assists

Hopefully this helps give you some useful information. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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