IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 5

Aaron Rudnicki's IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 5 Aaron Rudnicki Published 10/05/2023

The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet is used to track trends around the league to help with evaluating IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.

You can find the Microsoft Excel tool HERE

SCHEDULE TAB

The Schedule tab was a recent addition to try and help someone quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.

When I look at matchups for this week, these are the ones that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

  • PITTSBURGH (vs Baltimore) – Ravens generating 34.5 rush attempts/game
  • MINNESOTA (vs Kansas City) – Vikings defense allowing 60 tackle opps/game
  • CAROLINA (at Detroit) – Lions offense generating 58 tackle opps/game (32 rush attempts)
  • LA Rams (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles offense generating 60 tackle opps/game (35 rush attempts)
  • SAN FRANCISCO (vs Dallas) – Cowboys offense generating 59 tackle opps/game (32 rush attempts)

In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

  • DENVER (vs NY Jets) – Jets offense generating 41 tackle opps/game (18 completions)
  • ARIZONA (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals offense generating 41 tackle opps/game (18 rush attempts)
  • LAS VEGAS (vs Green Bay) – Packers offense generating 42 tackle opps/game (19 completions)
  • BALTIMORE (at Pittsburgh) – Steelers offense generating 44 tackle opps/game
  • GREEN BAY (at Las Vegas) – Raiders offense generating 45 tackle opps/game

You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:

  • CHICAGO (at Washington) –Commanders allow 6.0 sacks/game
  • MIAMI (vs NY Giants) – Giants allow 5.8 sacks/game
  • WASHINGTON (vs Chicago) – Bears allow 4.3 sacks/game
  • INDIANAPOLIS (vs Tennessee) – Titans allow 4.0 sacks/game
  • NEW ENGLAND (vs New Orleans) – Saints allow 3.8 sacks/game

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In contrast, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:

  • MINNESOTA (vs Kansas City) - Chiefs allow .5 sacks/game
  • NY Giants (at Miami) – Dolphins allow 1.3 sacks/game
  • CINCINNATI (at Arizona) – Cardinals allow 1.5 sacks/game
  • SAN FRANCISCO (vs Dallas) – Cowboys allow 1.5 sacks/game
  • DALLAS (at San Francisco) – 49ers allow 1.8 sacks/game

STAT CREW GRADES

This tab keeps track of tendencies for each stat crew. Each home stadium typically has their own group of stat keepers that are responsible for assigning tackle details (solo vs solo/assist vs assist/assist) on each play. The table at the top keeps track of Tackle vs Opportunity and compares total tackles awarded (solos plus assists) divided by tackle opportunities (rush attempts plus pass completions plus sacks). This gives you an idea of which crews tend to be more generous or less generous in comparison to everybody else.

While these tendences tend to be relatively stable throughout the year, there are changes that take place from year to year. So, with the beginning of a new season, it’s worth looking for any new patterns that might be emerging. While the sample size in 2023 is still very small, some early trends stand out to me.

There are a couple stadiums that ranked among the least generous crews in the league last year, but which are now ranked among the most generous. Kansas City ranked 27th last year with 1.19 tackles awarded per opportunity but are now ranked 9th with 1.26. Similarly, Tampa Bay ranked 31st last year with 1.18 tackles per opportunity but are now ranked 11th with 1.25.

There are some stadium crews going in the opposite direction as well. Denver ranked 8th last year with 1.25 tackles per opportunity but are ranked 26th this year with 1.18. Similarly, San Francisco ranked 9th last year with 1.24 tackles per opportunity but are now ranked 29th with 1.17. These types of changes may seem small, but remember this is on a per play basis so spread out over hundreds of plays in a game, they can lead to a lot more IDP points coming from some games than others.

There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums which you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.

Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

  • Atlanta (vs Houston) – 1.29 tackles/opp
  • Washington (vs Chicago) – 1.26 tackles/opp
  • LA Rams (vs Philadelphia) – 1.26 tackles/opp
  • Pittsburgh (vs Baltimore) – 1.24 tackles/opp

Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

  • Arizona (vs Cincinnati) – 1.16 tackles/opp
  • San Francisco (vs Dallas) – 1.17 tackles/opp
  • Miami (vs NY Giants) – 1.17 tackles/opp
  • Denver (vs NY Jets) – 1.18 tackles/opp
  • Las Vegas (vs Green Bay) – 1.18 tackles/opp

Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week that would include:

  • Pittsburgh (vs Baltimore) – 85% solos
  • Detroit (vs Carolina) – 81% solos
  • Minnesota (vs Kansas City) – 81% solos
  • Arizona (vs Cincinnati) – 81% solos

In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. STADIUMS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:

  • Atlanta (vs Houston) - 55% assists
  • LA Rams (vs Philadelphia) – 52% assists
  • Washington (vs Chicago) – 49% assists
  • New England (vs New Orleans) – 48% assists

Hopefully this helps give you some useful information. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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