Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Actual: Fantasy points Ranking through High-Leverage Opportunity Touches
- 2023 RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
OVERACHIEVERS
Chiefs
While 13th in expected HLO score, the Chiefs were No.5 in actual scoring from HLO touches in 2023. The same pattern was there in 2022, as they were second overall despite only being 11th in HLO opportunities. Isiah Pacheco's expansion in the passing game late in the season was the most encouraging sign toward 2024 upside if Pacheco is relatively unchallenged through free agency and the NFL Draft. Expect Kansas City to address the passing game, but running back was not one of the problems in 2023.
Ravens
Baltimore has been one of the HLO eyesores since I began tracking the data in 2019. Their No.22 finish is the best of the sample size, and they have been 31st or 32nd in all of the previous seasons. The impact of Lamar Jackson cannot be overstated as Baltimore was +35% over expectation on goal line carries for running backs, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. In addition to being 31st in running back targets, Baltimore was -21% versus expectation through the air for their targets. Continue to seek out the goal line back in Baltimore, but be skeptical of a receiving-centric option until further notice.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay took a huge step back in HLO score compared to the Tom Brady era, where they were routinely in the top five. Their 27th HLO ranking in 2023 was hidden by their 13th actual HLO production and largely with a +25% differential for their goal line carries. Rachaad White was a workhorse, but be tempered in upside enthusiasm for more upside in 2024 as White was fortunate in terms of expected vs. actual HLO production.
UNDERACHIEVERS
Cowboys
Tony Pollard became the unquestioned workhorse in 2023, with Ezekiel Elliott jettisoned to free agency in the offseason. Pollard was a fantasy bust compared to expectation, and his lack of goal-line efficiency was a glaring cause. Dallas was -42% in actual goal line HLO versus expected production, fourth-worst in the NFL. Pollard now enters free agency at 27 years old and is coming off a down year. Look for Dallas to address the position even if Pollard returns in 2024.
Packers
Like Dallas, Green Bay was one of the worst goal-line teams in HLO efficiency in the NFL. At -44%, the Packers were third-worst in 2023, derailing their 10th overall ranking in goal-line carries. AJ Dillon was a fantasy disaster with his clarified starts, and Aaron Jones had a number of questionable status games, which clouded his lineup utility as well. Green Bay is a rising offense; look for the depth chart to see significant change in the offseason.
Eagles
Jalen Hurts and the goal line sneak siphoned away a ton of short-range touchdown opportunities for running backs. Their 11th goal-line ranking could have easily been top five in a non-quarterback-centric rushing offense. The Eagles were -33% with their actual vs. expected goal-line fantasy points for running backs as well. They were 28th in actual HLO production for running backs in 2022 and followed it up with a 24th ranking in 2023. Until Jalen Hurts is not critically involved with the goal-line rushing game, expect the Eagles to sag in HLO upside.