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Every time you hear, "You need to have insert-player-here this year," there are also players you must avoid. Some players are just not as good as everyone makes them out to be. Maybe they had a stellar end to the 2021 season and are being overrated by the consensus without considering that their circumstances have changed. But most players that you need to avoid in fantasy football are being drafted at an ADP (Average Draft Position) that is too high, typically due to a disparity between their NFL game value and their fantasy football value.
Let's bridge the gap and dive into some wide receivers who are overvalued from an ADP standpoint.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers: WR7
Samuel's ascendence to his role last year was not expected. He was being drafted behind teammate Brandon Aiyuk as a fantasy backup wide receiver and regarded as a player who could always get you yards after the catch. But he had a worrying injury history and was not regarded as an upside option. Things have changed since then, with Samuel putting up a massive 2021 season that saw him finish as the WR3 overall in points per game. But things are also changing in San Francisco, and they could lead to a massive shift in his workload that some fantasy players are not taking into account.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been pushed aside in favor of the 2021 No. 3 overall draft pick in Trey Lance. The North Dakota State product seems ready to take the reins of this offense after sitting all but two games last season, and the offense is almost certain to change around him. There will be many more designed run plays for Lance, who ran for 1,100 yards on 169 carries in his lone full season in college. Garoppolo also was not proficient at throwing downfield and preferred the short-to-intermediate area of the field that Samuel lived in last season.
There are also not that many targets to go around in this offense. According to our own Footballguys staffer Alex Caruso, Samuel's 121 targets were the lowest for a wide receiver who scored over 300 PPR points in the last seven years. Regression is almost certainly coming for Samuel, and when you mix Lance's style of playing the offense, which may not involve many red zone targets for Samuel. There is also the matter of Samuel's rushing numbers, which were extremely efficient last season at 59 rushes for 365 yards and 8 touchdowns -- an extra 143.5 PPR points. With Lance's rushing proficiency, these numbers should be expected to drop, especially the touchdowns.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns: WR26
Cooper without Deshaun Watson is someone you should probably not be investing a mid-round pick in. The new Cleveland Brown arrived this offseason in a trade from Dallas and quickly got great news that Watson would replace Baker Mayfield as the starting quarterback. But, with Watson's current six-game suspension expected to be increased to a larger number, we can assume that Cooper will not be in a great spot fantasy-wise. Jacoby Brissett is the backup QB for the Browns and doesn't figure to be anything more than a replacement-level player while Watson is sidelined. But that isn't the only worrying thing.
Even with Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku as the only penciled-in starters set to see receiving volume apart from Cooper. Still, Cooper may not see that much volume, considering how run-heavy the Browns under Kevin Stefanski have been. The Browns ran the ball at the fifth-heaviest rate in the NFL in neutral situations last season, per Sharp Football Analysis. That doesn't figure to change with Brissett seeing extended time.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: WR30
St. Brown is a fascinating case study. Before Week 13 of last season, he averaged 5.3 targets per game, 35.2 yards per game, and had zero touchdowns. From that game on, he put together a scintillating stretch of at least 10 targets in every game, 93.3 receiving yards per game, and scored five touchdowns. Quite a shift! There's a catch, though. This production all occurred when his primary competition for targets was a combination of Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and Quintez Cephus. Two of the Lions' star offensive weapons - running back DAndre Swift and tight end T.J. Hockenson - had many injury issues last year. During St. Brown's streak of high production, Swift and Hockenson were unavailable.
It is plausible to think that with a healthy Hockenson and Swift, as well as the additions of rookie wide receiver Jameson Williams and veteran D.J. Chark, St. Brown will see a downtick in targets this season. With the added issue that Jared Goff is not lighting the league up in passing yards anytime soon, another top-24 fantasy finish seems to be out of the question. With all the new faces joining the current faces in Detroit, there are safer options to consider with your mid-round pick than St. Brown this upcoming season.
Final Thoughts
When it comes to wide receivers this season, there aren't many bad spots to get in. There is a lot of value in drafting receivers as the NFL becomes more of a passing-heavy league. Finding those guys to avoid gets even harder because of this, and it becomes a game of identifying places where you're losing value rather than full-out avoiding these players. Therefore you shouldn't look too fully at taking these players off your draft board but rather keep a strict tier of where you are comfortable drafting them.