Vegas Value Chart: Week 4

John Lee's Vegas Value Chart: Week 4 John Lee Published 09/27/2022

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus on those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.

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[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]

Team Opponent Odds Game Total Team Total Passing Running Team Defense
Buffalo Baltimore -3.5 50.5 27 «« ««
Philadelphia Jacksonville -6.5 44.5 25.5 « « «
Detroit Seattle -3.5 47.5 25.5 « «
LA Chargers Houston -6 45 25.5 « « «
Cincinnati Miami -3.5 46.5 25 « «
Green Bay New England -9.5 40 24.75 « «« «««
Cleveland Atlanta -1 48 24.5 « «
Las Vegas Denver -3 45 24 « «
Baltimore Buffalo 3.5 50.5 23.5
Tampa Bay Kansas City -1 46 23.5
Atlanta Cleveland 1 48 23.5
Indianapolis Tennessee -3.5 43 23.25 «
Minnesota New Orleans -4 42 23 «
Kansas City Tampa Bay 1 46 22.5
Pittsburgh NY Jets -3 41.5 22.25 «
Carolina Arizona -1 43.5 22.25
San Francisco LA Rams -1.5 42.5 22
Dallas Washington -3 41 22 «
Seattle Detroit 3.5 47.5 22
Miami Cincinnati 3.5 46.5 21.5 Photos provided by Imagn Images

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