The Gut Check No.574: Etienne or Robinson? Why Not Both?

Photo: USA Today Sports

The Jaguars Backfield Inspires the Simpletons in Us

We're in a period of our culture where so much that's presented to us as consumers of information is either/or, better/worse, great/terrible. It's representative of exploiting the simpleton in us.

In the spirit of railing against that behavior, I present to you the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield. The storylines of Travis Etienne and James Robinson, even at this early juncture of the season, attract this simpleton thinking that belongs in the dumper.

The fantasy community gassed up Travis Etienne this summer. Easy to do, Robinson's Achilles' tear was the more serious of the two backs' season-ending injuries in 2021. Etienne also impressed onlookers with his speed, something that's patently obvious in shorts during the spring phase of camp.

What really fueled the Etienne buzz was the projected usage as a receiver from a variety of alignments. This generated the expectation that Etienne would earn the DAndre Swift role and generate PPR fantasy value commensurate with the top 12-15 players at the running back position.

Weigh this information against Robinson's rehab and the fact that Marlon Mack and D'Onta Foreman are the shining examples of NFL runners who've had the best rehabs of an Achilles injury to date, and this vaulted Etiennes preseason ADP into the early rounds.

Fast-forward (or "flash-forward" as Mrs. RSP often says — when you were a sprinter her caliber, "flash" is more her speed) to Sunday night, and the narratives are shifting.

Etienne dropped a red-zone pass. Robinson scored twice and had more touches. Etienne had more snaps. Who's better for fantasy GMs?

I'll answer your better/worse, either/or, better/worse questions about this backfield, my fellow fantasy simpletons, but I'm giving you seeds to think for yourself.

The Production Data

The snaps were close to even for the two running backs, which is encouraging for both players as we get deeper into the data. For Robinson, it's an initial layer of confirmation that he's had a successful injury rehab. While Etienne earned five fewer touches than Robinson and Robinson scored two touchdowns, Etienne had two plays, which you'll see on tape where one detail going different than it did would have led to touchdowns.

The most notable difference is mistakes. Etienne fumbled a pass reception in the fourth quarter and dropped two passes, including a target in the end zone that every person vested in this backfield has discussed. We'll get to Etienne's hands in more detail, later.

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What's worth considering from the information above is that their workloads were nearly split down the middle. The Jaguars tested Robinson's rehab early in the game but initially used Etienne more when Washington earned a double-digit lead. In the second half, the Jaguars collected themselves and were more patient with running the ball, which led to more usage for Robinson. In the fourth quarter, the snap share for the two backs was nearly equal — seven for Robinson and eight for Etienne.

We're only seeing one game of data, so game scripts could significantly alter the production opportunities for either player as the season unfolds. Still, it appears on the surface that it's close to an even split between Etienne and Robinson. Both earned usage in the red zone and as receivers.

Both players have a potential trapdoor for their production potential. For Robinson, the usage patterns that the game plan and game script could dictate. Although initially encouraging that 62% of Robinson's snaps came on pass plays, only 9% of his time on the field came on third down whereas Etienne was the more frequent third-down back.

That said, when you see the information below, Etienne didn't dominate in the long down-and-distance scenarios. The film showed that the coaches trusted Robinson as a pass protector as well.

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What we're beginning to see with this data is that Jacksonville likes to use Etienne in shotgun scenarios where they can send him in motion in and out of the backfield for perimeter runs and receptions in space. The motion also forces the defense to declare specific pre-snap information for Trevor Lawrence that it's trying to disguise.

Etienne's speed forces defenses to react to him and if they don't make the correct adjustments, Etienne or another player will be wide-open for a big play. He's a central part of the weekly game plan. That said, Robinson is the run-heavy option and has more of the short-yardage touches and slightly more opportunities in the early downs.

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There's not enough of a difference in the data thus far to say that one is likely to have a better week than the other. Both earned significant time during the Jaguars' comeback. Both earned red-zone and green-zone touches. Both had roles in the passing game as receivers and pass protectors.

Let's go to the film to find the real differences between the two.

Etienne's Tape

Insights:

• Etienne is the greater big-play threat due to his speed but there's more boom-bust to his game as a decision-maker.
• Compounding the penchant to bounce too many plays outside and not set up defenders into blockers is Etienne's agile but unstable footwork that leads to boom-bust outcomes that include unforced errors.
• Less short-area acceleration than capable.
• Unbalanced positions that lead to falls
• An inefficient movement style that either moves him too far from the intended running track or forces him to regather and take too much time.
• Etienne does good work up the seam and showed some a nice shed of the linebacker on the red zone target Lawrence overshot early in the game.
• Etienne's two drops were the product of his hands angled away from the point of the ball and closer to the sides of the ball. While he may not have clapped onto the targets, he wasn't maximizing the use of his fingertips to stop the spin, and the ball hitting his palms contributed to his drops. His pass-catching has always been slightly overstated on the potential of his explosive big plays and glossed over inconsistencies with technique.
• Etienne picked up his protection assignments adequately when asked to block.
• The Jaguars didn't misuse Etienne. They appear to know his strengths and weaknesses and deploy him in this capacity.

Robinson's Tape

Insights

• If Robinson was thinking about his injury as he executed on the field, only he would know it. His short-area quickness and acceleration have always been a strength of his game and it was on display.
• There's the idea that Robinson's lack of top-end speed made him a better candidate to heal from an Achilles' tear.
• This is false: Short-area quickness and acceleration demand a lot more force on the injured body part and Robinson's game was built on this. Look at his 20-Shuttle and 3-Cone metrics.
• The fact that Robinson could make the cuts he did in tight proximity of defenders in the box and explode through lanes into the second and third level of the defense is a tremendous positive.
• Robinson won't earn targets often as a receiver detached from the formation, but the coaches trust him as a play they can leak from the backfield.
• Expect Robinson to earn screens and check-downs
• Expect Robinson to earn red-zone passes, especially when he's the best inside runner for short-yardage situations with stacked fronts.
• Robinson's pass protection was also adequate. He had more difficult scenarios to handle and handled them well enough to buy his quarterback time, if not space to operate.
• Jacksonville leaned on him more in the second half and his fourth-quarter participation is a telling indicator that the coaches believe he's back.

Etienne or Robinson? Why Not Both?

Etienne has more PPR upside because his participation profile gets him into space where he can use his speed to generate chunk plays that will likely be greater in value on a per-touch basis than Robinson. However, don't discount Robinson as the second back in your fantasy lineups who will occasionally outscore Etienne.

The drops, the inefficient decision-making, and the lack of fundamentally-sound footwork and hands at the catch point may not kill Etienne's value if he can minimize the mistakes or the Jaguars overlook them. However, if the mistakes are costly enough, Etienne could lose snaps as the season progresses.

He's the more valued option and the data-heavy analysts are betting on the good of his utilization to outweigh the bad of his tape. It's possible, even probable.

Still, Robinson has value. The Jaguars' coaches looked at the tape and told the media that Robinson's work was encouraging and they know what they have in him. They obviously knew it with the fourth-quarter usage.

He makes far fewer mistakes and it's the label he earned early in his career. It had to happen this way to prompt Doug Marrone to ask the front office for permission to let Robinson, a UDFA, compete for a meaningful role. From the prism of draft capital, the current coaching regime didn't invest in either back, so there's a greater chance for less bias with either back.

That said, higher-ups in the front office may still have some draft capital bias where they will implore the coaches to stick with the early-round Etienne through his mistakes, in what's essentially his rookie year on the field. I don't think they will write off Robinson as quickly as they would do with most UDFAs based on the production equity he's earned.

If you're in a non-PPR league. Robinson is closer in value to Etienne and Etienne's potential trapdoors with his game are more meaningful to Robinson's upside. If you're in a PPR format, Etienne's ceiling is more tantalizing but Robinson won't be a one-game wonder.

I see Etienne as a likely high-end RB2 (14th-18th in PPR production for RBs) and Robinson as a mid-to-low RB2 (16th-20th). If either back gets hurt, both have low-end RB1 upside. Robinson's production is more stable week-to-week but Etienne's big plays can help you dominate in any given week.

Considering that the RB2 position in a fantasy lineup can be the least stable scorer for a successful team, I wouldn't overthink the question. When it comes to Etienne or Robinson, either or both is a good answer.

Follow Matt Waldman on Twitter: @mattwaldman

YouTube Channel: RSP Film Room

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