This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup
WR Gabe Davis (BUF vs MIN) vs Cameron Dantzler
Despite the 7-1 record, the Minnesota secondary has been one of the worst in the league. They are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points but are also allowing 9.4 yards per target which is the highest in the league. Dantzler was injured last week, and rookie Akayleb Evans stepped in. This should bump both Davis and Stefon Diggs on the outside. Diggs will likely see a healthy dose of Patrick Peterson, who has been one of the lone bright spots for this secondary. We cannot discount the revenge game narrative for Diggs after how his time in Minnesota ended, but Davis has the better matchup and should be targeted early and often by Josh Allen.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs TEN) vs Terrance Mitchell
The Denver offense has not clicked so far this season, and Sutton has seen his numbers dip significantly due to the play of Russell Wilson. However, they are walking into a matchup against a Tennessee secondary that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the sixth-most to those lined up on the outside. Mitchell has not played well this season and currently allows 0.40 fantasy points per coverage snap. Sutton has the best-projected matchup of any Denver receiver this week against a secondary known for giving up points.
WR Christian Kirk (JAX vs KC) vs LJarius Sneed
The Kansas City secondary may have held the Titans receivers without a catch last week, but that will not be the case against Jacksonville this week. Kirk has played well this season and seems to be a favorite target of Trevor Lawrence, and the offense is currently flowing through Travis Etienne. The Chiefs are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the slot position, where Kirk lines up over 76% of the time. Look for Lawrence to try to exploit this matchup in what may be a surprisingly high-scoring game this week.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs TB) vs Carlton Davis
The Tampa Bay secondary has been solid this season but will face one of its tougher tests when DK Metcalf and Lockett come to town. Davis has been the weakest link in the secondary, allowing 0.44 fantasy points per coverage snap. While Jamel Dean and Davis have been asked to shadow in the past, they have primarily played their own sides so far this season with 95%+ snaps on the outside and the rest in the slot on their same side. Both players should see a mix of Metcalf and Lockett this week, with Davis projected to see more of Lockett. The slight advantage goes to Seattle on that side and has Lockett poised for a solid performance this week.
WR Diontae Johnson (PIT vs NO) vs Paulson Adebo
It has been a tough season for Pittsburgh so far, especially the offense. After trading Chase Claypool to the Bears, there will be excess targets to be absorbed through George Pickens and Johnson. New Orleans is a tough defense, but they have been without the services of Marshon Lattimore since an injury in London against the Vikings. That leaves Adebo on the outside, and he has struggled mightily. He is currently allowing 0.68 fantasy points per coverage snap and will have to contend with two big-bodied receivers this week in Johnson and Pickens. The quarterback situation will limit the ceiling for Johnson, but the great matchup makes him worthy of flex or sleeper in daily fantasy consideration.
WR D.J. Moore (CAR vs ATL) vs Cornell Armstrong
While the quarterback situation in Carolina is murkier than ever, with Sam Darnold recently brought back from injury, they are expected to stick with P.J. Walker. This is good news for Moore, who has seen his targets, yards, and touchdowns grow with Walker under center. He was always the best receiving option on the team and never clicked with Baker Mayfield. This week he has a great matchup against a young corner that is allowing 0.70 fantasy points per coverage snap. Look for Walker to try to make a statement this week to keep his job, and his best weapon is Moore in a great matchup on the outside.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs CAR)
It has been a wild ride for Pitts so far this season, if not a frustrating one. There appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel and a new approach for the Atlanta offense. Pitts did not have a great fantasy day last week. But he saw his target share increase to 30%, and Marcus Mariota tried to push the ball to him down the field for what felt like the first time this season. He was missed on what would have been a wide-open 50 yards touchdown when Mariota overthrew him, but it is a good sign to see the Falcons starting to take those shots. His best game of the season came against Carolina a few weeks ago, where he caught five passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. The metrics are starting to trend back in Pitts’ favor and may finally pay off if you were patient enough to hold on to him.
TE Tyler Higbee (LAR vs ARZ)
Higbee has been frustrating this season. He put up a 0 last week on a single target but has been reliable for most of the season. The matchup against the Cardinals is too good to pass up, no matter who the tight end is. Arizona is currently allowing the most fantasy points per game, targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns to tight ends. There is no better matchup for tight ends in the NFL than the Arizona Cardinals. Forget about the 0 from last week, as Higbee is a must-start this week.
Unfavorable Matchup
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs PHI) vs Darius Slay
Slay has shadowed McLaurin in every game since coming to the Eagles. McLaurin has put up very respectable numbers in these matchups, with one of the best coming earlier this season with six catches for 102 yards. However, this defense has played extremely well this season and is currently allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and the third-fewest points to those lined up outside. Slay has been one of the best cover corners in the league and is routinely asked to travel with the top receiver for the opposition. Look for him to lock up with McLaurin again this week, with the advantage going to Slay.
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs GB) vs Rasul Douglas
The season as a whole has not been very good for Green Bay, but the defense continues to play well against opposing wide receivers. They are currently allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points to the position and Jaire Alexander finally looks healthy on the outside. Lamb will tangle with Douglas in the slot and will see his fair share of targets. Douglas is being targeted roughly 20% of the time by opposing quarterbacks and has more than held his own. The Green Bay secondary has played well as a whole and that should downgrade the entire Dallas receiver group. Temper expectations for Lamb this week as he is walking into a tough matchup.
WR Brandin Cooks (HOU vs NYG) vs Adoree Jackson
There is a lot of drama surrounding Cooks and the Texans right now. He wanted to be traded before the deadline, and Houston elected to hold on to him. He then sat the following week with an injury but was seen back at practice this week in a limited capacity. Even if things were going well with the franchise, Cooks is walking into a tough matchup against Jackson in a shadow situation. The Giants currently allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and the third-fewest to the side of the field covered by Jackson. With all of the drama and the tough matchup for Cooks, this is a situation you should avoid this week.
WR Drake London (ATL vs CAR) vs Jaycee Horn
The Atlanta offense has been difficult to predict all season. Sometimes, they have looked good, and the ball has been getting out to Kyle Pitts and London. But other times, they struggle even to get first downs. London has had an up-and-down rookie season, with a lot of the issues stemming from quarterback play. This week that is coupled with a tough matchup with Horn on the outside. Horn is allowing just 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap this season. London has started to fade away in fantasy relevance as the season goes on, and he should definitely be avoided in a tough matchup this week.
WR Robert Woods (TEN vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain
There is not much to fear from the Tennessee receiver group right now. Even with Derek Henry running all over the place, they simply cannot throw the ball down the field. This receiver group was held without a catch against the Chiefs and will have an even tougher time against Surtain and company. Woods draws the toughest matchup and will likely only escape Surtain when he lines up in the slot. Avoid the entire Tennessee receiving situation if possible this week.
WR Davante Adams (LV vs IND) vs Stephon Gilmore
Adams made this side of the list last week and absolutely blew up as the top fantasy receiver. He always has that potential, even with Derek Carr at quarterback. This week he will draw shadow coverage from Gilmore. If Carr is having a good day, this should not slow Adams down too much but is still a tougher-than-usual matchup. Gilmore is allowing his fair share of fantasy points this season (0.32 per coverage snap) but has been one of the better cover corners across his career. Adams is a must-start in any year-long fantasy but may be a good pivot in daily contests with Gilmore following him around the field.
TE Dawson Knox (BUF vs MIN)
The high-power Bills offense has not included Knox so far this season. He has a single game with more than five targets and has only scored double-digit fantasy points once. He has scored in two out of his last three games but is a touchdown-dependent option right now. The Vikings are not particularly tough against tight ends this season, but Knox has not shown anything that would garner starting him unless absolutely necessary in your league.
TE Mike Gesicki (MIA vs CLE)
Much like Knox above, Gesicki has a very low floor every week. He caught one pass for three yards last week and now has three different games with fewer than two fantasy points this season. Miami has a love affair with their receivers and throwing the ball right now, and that is still not including Gesicki. He also has a tough matchup against a Cleveland defense that has allowed a single touchdown to opposing tight ends this season. With the tough matchup and low floor, look for other options at tight end this week.