This final edition of Reading the Defense for the 2022-2023 season reflects on results at the linebacker position. Linebackers grouped by snap share was a common theme of the column by this name under prior stewardship. Jene Bramel routinely emphasized the importance of rostering a corps of full-time players. Bramel further sought to understand and communicate expectations for rotations, as he did in this 2014 edition.
Preseason Linebacker Draft Cohorts
Through 17 weeks of this 18-week NFL season, hindsight illuminates the wisdom of preseason expectations and highlights lessons. Fantasy gamers selected 42 off-ball linebackers, including Micah Parsons, on the Sleeper fantasy football platform among 400 players at all positions. Parsons himself had the highest average draft position (55) of any linebacker and, for that matter, any defensive player as of September 1, 2022.
Thirty-two of these 42 linebackers might be considered successful selections, scoring among the top 50 at the position in fantasy points per game. Foye Oluokun leads all defenders with 15.5 fantasy points per game and 243.5 total points. Elandon Roberts, the 50th-ranked linebacker, has scored 8.7 fantasy points per game through 16 games.
Locked-In Starters
Half of the top 50 linebackers were widely expected to hold full-time roles throughout the season. Many were returning defensive signal callers like Fred Warner. Some, such as Oluokun, were splashy free-agent additions. A few, including Dre Greenlaw, would play nearly a full complement of snaps alongside a teammate and signal caller at the second level.
Most of the linebackers in this cohort earned their roles in past seasons, making them holdovers. Christian Kirksey established himself in this tier via contract extension. Nick Bolton cemented his status by pushing competition for dime sub-package snaps off the roster in August.
Only three of these 24 linebackers fell outside the top 400 players drafted this past summer on Sleeper. Josey Jewell, Dre Greenlaw, and Nicholas Morrow are each without average draft positions. These three players missed most or all of the 2022 season with injuries. Fantasy gamers seemingly forgot about them, making each a screaming value from the outset of the season. Jewell, the Broncos’ defensive signal caller, and Greenlaw, the running mate of All-Pro Fred Warner, each finished inside the top ten linebackers in fantasy points per game.
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Risk/Reward Propositions
The second preseason cohort of linebackers includes three types. The first type includes those players expected to open the season as full-time players but who could be overtaken by younger talent. Mykal Walker, for instance, was replaced in by second-round rookie Troy Anderson in sub-packages as the season evolved.
Zaven Collins entered the 2022 season with uncertainty about his role. He and other young players fit a second type of risk/reward proposition who could earn a full-time role. Collins fit the bill right away and will graduate to the top tier for 2023.
Pete Werner exemplifies the third type in this tier. He almost certainly had no path to a full-time role in 2022. Fantasy gamers drafted him, hoping that he would play enough snaps to be relevant. In the 11 games in which he’s been healthy enough to play, his snap share is 80 percent. Werner has averaged 10.1 fantasy points in such games en route to the 36th slot on the leaderboard.
The LB1s of 2022
| Player, Team | Games | Solos | Assists | Sacks | FFs | FRs | PDs | INsT | TDs | FPs/Gm | Points | ADP | Cohort |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foye Oluokun JAX | 16 | 119 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15.2 | 243.5 | 113.8 | 1 |
| Josey Jewell DEN | 12 | 65 | 58 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14.9 | 179.0 | n/a | 1 |
| Roquan Smith CHI,BAL | 16 | 91 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14.1 | 225.8 | 71.2 | 1 |
| Nick Bolton KC | 16 | 100 | 64 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14.0 | 224.5 | 220.0 | 1 |
| Jordyn Brooks SEA | 16 | 103 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13.6 | 217.5 | 89.4 | 1 |
| Zaire Franklin IND | 16 | 97 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13.6 | 217.0 | n/a | - |
| Frankie Luvu CAR | 14 | 74 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13.0 | 181.8 | n/a | - |
| Drue Tranquill LAC | 16 | 90 | 47 | 5.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13.0 | 207.2 | n/a | 2 |
| C.J. Mosley NYJ | 16 | 94 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12.9 | 205.8 | 157.0 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw SF | 15 | 82 | 44 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12.8 | 192.0 | n/a | 2 |
| Rashaan Evans ATL | 16 | 83 | 71 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12.7 | 203.8 | n/a | 2 |
| T.J. Edwards PHI | 16 | 90 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12.6 | 201.8 | 386.7 | 2 |
Sources: Pro-Football-Reference.com (Games), Footballguys.com (Statistics), FTNFantasy.com (ADP)
A remarkable assortment of linebackers populated the top of the fantasy leaderboard in 2022. Four are repeat performers, also appearing in 2021’s top twelve scorers at the position. Foye Oluokun, Roquan Smith, Jordyn Brooks, and C.J. Mosley all demonstrated that early picks spent on linebackers can yield results. Six have no average draft positions because they were often left unselected and landed outside the top 400 players drafted on the Sleeper fantasy football platform.
Meanwhile, Rashaan Evans and Drue Tranquill entered the 2022 season as speculative selections with uncertain roles. Each, however, had a path to high volume. Live action quickly revealed that Evans had earned a nearly full-time role alongside Mykal Walker over the summer. Tranquill, however, took on the responsibility of the green dot in Week 4, only then entrenching himself as a top fantasy linebacker.
Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis
IDP’s biggest preseason drama was the health and status of star Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard. Offseason surgery delayed his debut even beyond that anticipated by the team. He was almost immediately injured upon his return. He saw the field in portions of only three games.
Career back-up and special teams ace Zaire Franklin took over for Leonard not only as the defensive signal caller but also as a top-twelve fantasy linebacker. Like Collins, Franklin has earned a spot in the top cohort for 2023. Even if Leonard can return healthy, the rookie contract of fellow linebacker Bobby Okereke is expiring.
Zach Hicks on Twitter A few of Zaire Franklin's best plays in coverage this season for the Colts. He has been asked to do a lot in a scheme that puts a ton of stress on linebackers in coverage. For the most part, he has held his own and made some big time plays pic.twitter.com/Vidf76PbDa— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) January 4, 2023 Frankie Luvu, Carolina
The Panthers’ defensive personnel was one of September’s biggest surprises. Despite no change in defensive coordinator, the team made significant adjustments, including more zone and MOFO (middle of the field open) coverages. They utilized fewer dime sub-packages and redeployed a rotational edge defender into a major linebacker role.
Frankie Luvu came over to Carolina from the New York Jets before the 2021 season. As in New York, he occupied a role as an edge defender for the Panthers. Preseason buzz preluded a larger role in 2022. Even then, Luvu was just a deep-league dart throw and landed on rosters via waivers after the first week or two of the season.
Luvu has played 91 percent of the snaps in games in which he’s been healthy in 2022, tripling his workload year over year. He’s played an inside/outside role like a vintage strongside linebacker. He piled up stats in all phases, exceeding 100 tackles and leading all linebackers in tackles for loss with 17. Luvu’s 138 pass rushes (reported by Pro Football Focus) generated 7.0 quarterback sacks.
Luvu is under contract for $5 million in 2023 but could be cut with no dead cap hit. His fate will be decided in part by a new coaching staff in Carolina next season.
His efficiency as a tackler and a rusher have each been remarkable. Precious few similar recent examples include Micah Parsons’s rookie year of 2021. Luvu will be hard-pressed to repeat his production, especially in a new scheme in 2023.
Nate Tice on Twitter #49 Frankie Luvu has had a breakout year on the Panthers defense in his first year as a full time starter (he went from 249 defensive snaps in 2021 to 880 this season).Luvu is a versatile defender who can play on and off the ball and fill up the box score. Just a fun player. pic.twitter.com/q3188O4u7g— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 6, 2023 Cost/Benefit Analysis
Drafting one of the repeat LB1s cost gamers a pick in the first 12 to 13 rounds of their preseason drafts. The safety of these picks stands in contrast to the upside wide receivers and committee running backs that gamers were foregoing. In the context of IDP drafts, pick 157 (Mosley’s ADP) is an early pick.
Most IDP leagues involve 30 or more rounds. The opportunity to land LB1s with multiple late picks (e.g., T.J. Edwards) or an aggressive Week-1 waiver wire move (Luvu) enabled gamers to venture earlier picks on potential league-winners like Tyler Allgeier or Jerick McKinnon.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Preseason rankings and articles like this one from August 2022 empower subscribers to outmaneuver league-mates in drafts.
As the 2022 NFL season winds down, this column has aimed to assess lessons learned and prepare readers for dynasty fantasy football’s non-point-scoring season. Recaps of safeties and pass rushers from the past two weeks remain available at Footballguys.com.
Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter. As a new writer to the team, I welcome feedback and hope this weekly column has provided value to readers throughout the 2022 season. I’m already excited for 2023 preseason content!